"They are accorded species rank, described and named T. mirus (amphiploid T. dubius x porrifolius) and T. miscellus (amphiploid T. dubius x pratensis)." — Marion Ownbey, American Journal of Botany, 19501
"This is not true—new species have been observed to form." — Creation Ministries International, on the argument that no new species have been produced2
"Although in no case was reproductive isolation complete, one does not expect full speciation to occur in so few generations." — Jerry Coyne and H. Allen Orr, on forty years of laboratory experiments, 20043
Summary
Speciation has been directly observed. It has been observed in plants, by polyploidy, which is the doubling of a whole set of chromosomes. The new plants cannot breed with their parents, they breed true among themselves, and botanists have named them as species. This happened in living memory, in known places, from known parents. This site states that plainly and does not take it back anywhere below.
The main findings:
- Two new species arose in the Palouse of Washington and Idaho before 1949. Three species of Tragopogon were brought from Europe. Their hybrids were almost sterile. Marion Ownbey found four small populations with twice the chromosomes, fertile and breeding true, and named them Tragopogon mirus and T. miscellus in 1950.1 They have since formed again many times and now number in the thousands.4
- The same event has been seen elsewhere. It happened three times in greenhouses with Primula kewensis, in 1905, 1923 and 1926.5 In Britain it produced Senecio cambrensis, Spartina anglica and Mimulus peregrinus.
- Polyploidy makes a species and makes no new gene. The new genome is two old genomes added together. Scored with the classes of Measuring Biological Information, it is a change in copy number and a merger, and it adds no unique functional sequence. The young genomes then lose genes.6
- It is common in plants and rare in animals. About 15% of speciation events in flowering plants come with an increase in chromosome sets.7 That figure is inferred from family trees. The handful of recent cases were watched.
- No animal species has been watched forming to completion by selection. The apple and hawthorn races of the apple maggot fly still exchange about 6% of their genes each generation.8 No laboratory experiment has produced complete isolation.3 One finch lineage on Daphne Major became isolated in three generations, by hybridisation and song.9
- The London Underground mosquito did not evolve in the Underground. Genomes from about 350 mosquitoes show that it arose above ground around the Mediterranean or the Middle East more than a thousand years ago.10 Textbooks used the old story, and so did creationist magazines.11
- The main creationist organisations accept all of this. Their list of arguments that creationists should not use includes "No new species have been produced", and they grant that a polyploid is a new species.2 12 The dispute is about what speciation shows about larger change.
Two things weaken the young-earth and design side here, and the article says so. Species do arise, fast, by natural processes, and anyone who denies it is wrong. And the count of new sequence used in this series cannot see the origin of a species at all, so a ledger that reads zero has still missed a real event.
Part 1: New species by chromosome doubling
How doubling isolates a plant in one generation
Most plants and animals carry two sets of chromosomes, one from each parent. A hybrid between two species carries one set from each. The two sets often cannot pair when the hybrid makes pollen and egg cells, so the hybrid is sterile. If the hybrid's chromosomes double, every chromosome has a partner again and fertility returns. The doubled plant now has four sets. Crossed back to either parent it gives offspring with three sets, and three sets cannot be divided evenly. Jerry Coyne and Allen Orr, in the standard textbook on the subject, draw the conclusion: the new tetraploid "is therefore reproductively isolated from its diploid ancestors" and "represents a new species."3 They call the process "instantaneous."3
A plant made this way from two species is an allopolyploid. A plant that doubles its own chromosomes without a cross is an autopolyploid. Every case below except one is an allopolyploid.
Tragopogon in the Palouse
Tragopogon is an Old World genus in the daisy family. Three species, T. dubius, T. porrifolius and T. pratensis, were brought from Europe to western North America in the early 1900s.13 Each has 12 chromosomes. Marion Ownbey, a botanist at the State College of Washington in Pullman, found all three growing together in southeastern Washington and neighbouring Idaho, crossing freely. The hybrids were nearly sterile: "not more than 1-2 per cent of the flowers producing fruits with embryos."1
In the season of 1949 he found four small colonies that were different:1 two of one kind in Pullman and in Palouse, Washington, 15 miles apart, and two of another in Moscow, Idaho, about a mile apart.1 1 They had 24 chromosomes. They looked like the hybrids, only larger, and they were fertile: "on the average from 52-66 per cent of the flowers producing fruits with embryos. They are established and true-breeding entities, although population size is still precariously small."1 Two populations came from T. dubius crossed with T. porrifolius, and two from T. dubius crossed with T. pratensis. He judged that they were four separate doublings and named two species.1 1
Douglas and Pamela Soltis and their colleagues have followed the plants since the late 1980s. Four results matter here.
- The species keep forming. Genetic markers show that T. mirus has arisen at least 13 times and T. miscellus possibly as many as 21 times.4
- The direction of the cross shows. When T. pratensis is the mother, T. miscellus has short ray flowers. When T. dubius is the mother, they are long. Only the Pullman population is long.13
- The species have been made again by hand. In 2009 Jennifer Tate and colleagues crossed the diploids, doubled the hybrids' chromosomes with the chemical colchicine, and produced plants that "resemble the natural polyploids."14
- They spread. From four small populations in 1949 they have grown to "many thousands of individuals."4 Ownbey already saw them holding their ground: "Although the populations are still small and precarious, fertility is good and these species are competing successfully with their parents."1
One gap should be stated. Ownbey did not cross the new species with their parents. His case for their isolation was this: "Gene interchange between the amphiploids and the parental species is prevented by a genetic barrier (ploidy level), and presumably residual sterility factors—evident in the F1 hybrids—would prevent free interbreeding between the two."1 In 1950, then, the isolation was inferred from the chromosome count and the near-sterility of the diploid hybrids, not tested by a cross. What has tested it since is seventy years in which the new species have kept their identity while growing beside their parents.
Primula kewensis
This case happened under glass, and it happened three times. A hybrid primrose appeared at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, among seedlings of Primula floribunda. W. C. F. Newton and Caroline Pellew of the John Innes Horticultural Institution gave its history in 1929. It "appeared originally at Kew in 1900", was shown to be a cross with P. verticillata, and was "highly sterile."5 Their paper gives 1899 in one place and 1900 in another.5
Then the sterile plant set seed. "The diploid hybrid has been observed to set seed on three occasions, and each time the seed produced has given rise to tetraploid plants." The occasions were 1905 at the Veitch nurseries, 1923 at Kew, and 1926 at the John Innes.5 Lettice Digby had counted the chromosomes in 1912: 18 in both parents and in the sterile hybrid, 36 in the fertile form. Newton and Pellew wrote that this "was the first example of a sterile hybrid producing seed, the change being associated with a doubling of the number of chromosomes".5 The fertile form, they said, "breeds true."5
Three British cases, and one that is different
Welsh ragwort, Senecio cambrensis. Oxford ragwort, S. squalidus, escaped from the Oxford Botanic Garden and met the native groundsel, S. vulgaris, in North Wales around 1910. Their hybrid has three sets of chromosomes and is sterile. A form with 60 chromosomes was found at Cefn-y-Bedd near Wrexham in 1948 and described by Rosser in 1955.15 Paul Ashton and Richard Abbott showed in 1992 that it had arisen separately in Wales and in Edinburgh.15 The Edinburgh plants were present from at least 1974 and have not been seen since 1993. Abbott and D. G. Forbes concluded that the lineage is extinct.16
Common cordgrass, Spartina anglica. It "arose during the end of the 19th century in England" when the native S. maritima crossed with S. alterniflora from eastern North America and the hybrid doubled its chromosomes. Unlike Tragopogon it appears to have one origin.17
A monkeyflower, Mimulus peregrinus. Two American monkeyflowers were brought to Britain in the 1800s. Their hybrid is sterile and has persisted in Britain for more than a century. In August 2011 Mario Vallejo-Marín found fertile plants among the hybrids at Leadhills in southern Scotland. They had 92 chromosomes, twice the hybrid's number.18 He named the species with a hedge. The evidence suggests, he wrote, that the plant may be "an example of recent allopolyploid speciation."18 His paper does not report test crosses with the parents.
York groundsel, Senecio eboracensis, is often listed with these and does not belong with them. It comes from the same two parents as Welsh ragwort. It has 40 chromosomes, the same as one parent. Abbott and Andrew Lowe call it a "recombinant tetraploid."19 No doubling made it. Its isolation had to be measured, and Lowe and Abbott measured it. Hybrids with Oxford ragwort were almost sterile. Hybrids with common groundsel set about 60% of normal seed. In the wild, crossing with groundsel ran between 0 and 1.46%, and it rose to 18.3% when the plants were crowded together.20 The isolation is real and it is partial. It depends mostly on both plants fertilising themselves.
Raphanobrassica
Georgii Karpechenko crossed radish with cabbage in the Soviet Union in the 1920s. The two are in different genera. His 1924 paper reports that the hybrids were sterile among themselves and with both parents.21 His 1928 paper is cited everywhere for the next step: a few hybrids made seed, the offspring had doubled chromosomes, bred among themselves, and would not cross with radish or cabbage.22 That paper could not be obtained. The case is reported here and not verified.
The cases together
| Species | Place | First seen | Chromosomes, parents to offspring | How isolation was shown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tragopogon mirus, T. miscellus | Washington and Idaho | 1949 | 12 and 12 to 24 | Count; hybrids 1 to 2% fertile, new species 52 to 66%; true breeding; made again in 2009 |
| Primula kewensis | Veitch's nursery, Kew, the John Innes | 1905, 1923, 1926 | 18 and 18 to 36 | Count; sterile hybrid, fertile true-breeding offspring |
| Senecio cambrensis | Wales, Edinburgh | 1948 | 40 and 20 to 60 | Count; sterile triploid hybrid; made again with colchicine |
| Spartina anglica | Southern England | End of the 1800s | Not read | Abstract only |
| Mimulus peregrinus | Southern Scotland | 2011 | 28 and 60 to 62, to 92 | Count and fertility; no test cross |
| Senecio eboracensis | York | 1979 | 40 and 20 to 40 | Test crosses; partial |
| Raphanobrassica | Soviet Union | 1920s | Not read | Not verified |
Part 2: What polyploidy makes and does not make
The score
The series scores every change with the four classes of Measuring Biological Information: transfer, loss, gain and modification. Those classes were written for mutations in genes. A doubled hybrid genome is a harder case, and the score below is this article's.23
| Event | Class | New sequence | Effect on the plant | Watched? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two species cross | Transfer, in both directions | 0 | A hybrid, nearly sterile | Observed |
| The hybrid's chromosomes double | Modification by copy: every gene is present in more copies | 0 | Fertility restored; isolated from both parents | Observed |
| Parental gene copies are lost afterwards | Not scored: no benefit has been shown | Negative | Unknown | Observed |
Both statements in the Summary follow from this table, and neither cancels the other. A species originated. No sequence did.
The series counts unique functional sequence, which means nucleotides that had to be originated and could not be copied. A duplicate adds nothing to that count until it changes. By that measure an allopolyploid is worth zero. The measure was built to ask how much work mutation and selection do, and polyploidy does no work of that kind. It is also true that the measure is blind here. A new species with a new combination of two genomes is a real biological event, and a ledger that counts nucleotides records nothing.
The creationist statement, and one correction to it
Creation Ministries International makes the same two points. Andrew Lamb wrote in 2007 that a polyploid plant "will usually not be able to breed with the parent species" and "can then be considered a new species", and added: "Note that there is no new genetic information involved, just repetition of existing information."12 Jonathan Sarfati wrote in 2008 that such a plant "may technically be called a new species, because of the reproductive isolation."24
Both use the picture of a printing press that prints every page of a book twice. That picture fits an autopolyploid. The observed cases are allopolyploids, which join the genomes of two different species. The better picture is two different books bound in one cover. Nothing in either book is new. The combination is new, and it is what makes the plant different from both parents. Sarfati's word "technically" is also weaker than the evidence. The plants are isolated, they breed true, and they have held their ground for seventy years.
The young genomes lose genes
The Soltis group has watched what happens to the doubled genome in its first forty generations. Tragopogon flowers in its second year, so eighty years is about forty generations.25
- In 2006 Tate and colleagues compared natural T. miscellus with hybrids made fresh in the greenhouse. The fresh hybrids carried everything both parents had. The natural plants had lost pieces. "Most of the cDNA–AFLP polymorphisms apparently resulted from loss of parental fragments in the polyploids."13
- In 2012 Richard Buggs and colleagues tested 70 genes in 59 plants from five populations. In each plant about 13 of the 70 had lost at least one parental copy. At least 7.7% of the original copies were gone.6
- In 2012 Michael Chester and colleagues painted the chromosomes of plants from six populations. "No population was fixed for a particular karyotype; 76% of the individuals showed intergenomic translocations, and 69% were aneuploid for one or more chromosomes."25 An aneuploid plant has the wrong number of some chromosome.
- In Senecio cambrensis, Ashton and Abbott looked for enzyme variants that neither parent had. They found none.15
- In Spartina anglica the two genomes "have not undergone extensive change since their reunion."17
An earlier review from the same group reports that about 5% of genes examined had been silenced and that "an additional 4% exhibit novel gene expression relative to their diploid parents."26 A change in how much of a gene's product is made is a modification in the series' terms. Whether any of those changes helps the plant has not been shown in the papers read for this article.
No new gene has been reported in any of these species. Forty generations is a short time, and the absence proves little. The mainstream expectation is that duplicated genes diverge over much longer spans, which is the subject of Gene Duplication and Divergence. That expectation rests on comparing genomes. It has not been watched in these plants.
How common it is
Troy Wood and colleagues counted changes in chromosome sets across 143 published family trees of plant genera in 2009. Of 1,813 branchings in flowering plants, 272 came with an increase, which is 15%. Of 204 in ferns, 64 did, which is 31%.7 Earlier estimates had been 2 to 4% for flowering plants.3
Three cautions belong with the 15%. It is inferred from trees and chromosome counts, so it belongs to the inferred column of this series, and only the recent cases of Part 1 belong to the observed column. It counts branchings that came with a doubling and does not show that the doubling caused each one. And Wood found that polyploid lines do not go on to produce more species than their relatives: "we find no direct evidence that polyploid lines, once established, enjoy greater net species diversification."7 Chester's paper adds that young polyploids "are more likely to go extinct."25 The Edinburgh lineage of Welsh ragwort is an example.
The rate of origin is high where it has been measured. In one corner of Washington and Idaho, two species arose at least 34 times between them in about eighty years.27
Why it is rare in animals
Coyne and Orr call the difference between plants and animals here "the greatest known difference between the evolutionary patterns in the two kingdoms", quoting Theodosius Dobzhansky, and say of its cause that "the correct answer remains unknown."3 The oldest proposal is H. J. Muller's, from 1925. Most animals have separate sexes set by sex chromosomes, and a cross between a plant-style tetraploid and a normal animal would give sterile intersexes. Most polyploid animals that are known reproduce without mating.3 Barbara Mable reviewed the question in 2004 and argued that several of the standard explanations are overstated.28
Whatever the cause, the fact limits the argument. The one kind of speciation that has been watched from start to finish is nearly closed to animals.
Part 3: Animals, where the record is thinner
The apple maggot fly
Rhagoletis pomonella is a North American fly whose larvae feed inside the fruit of hawthorn trees. The cultivated apple was imported. Benjamin Walsh, an entomologist in Illinois, described the fly in 1867 and reported what it had begun to do:
The second larva, the apple-maggot, is a native-American species, and breeds naturally in our wild haws and crabs, but, within the last few years, has been noticed to attack the cultivated apple in Massachusetts, in Connecticut, in New York, and probably in Vermont also.29
Walsh had bred the same fly from hawthorn in Illinois, where it left apples alone. He concluded that "it is only a local race of the species that has acquired the habit of attacking tame and imported instead of wild and indigenous species of plants."29 He called it a race. So has everyone who has measured it since.
Guy Bush proposed in 1969 that the whole group of related fly species arose by shifts of this kind, without any geographic barrier.30 Jeffrey Feder, Charles Chilcote and Bush tested the living races in 1988 at a field site near Grant, Michigan. Apple flies and hawthorn flies from the same site differed in the frequencies of several enzyme variants. Their conclusion was that the flies "represent partially reproductively isolated 'host races'."31
How much isolation has been measured? Feder and five colleagues marked and released flies at the same site and recorded where they were caught again. Flies go back to the kind of fruit they grew up in. That habit, which they call host fidelity, "restricts gene flow between sympatric apple- and hawthorn-infesting races" to about 6% per generation.8 Apples also ripen three to four weeks before hawthorns, and the flies emerge to match.30 The authors did not claim a species: "The Rhagoletis story is not complete, however."8
Three numbers place this. The fly has one generation a year,8 and the shift is at most 200 years old, so at most 200 generations have passed.32 Isolation before mating is about 94%. The differences between the races are differences in how common a variant is, between 0.10 and 0.20 on average, and no variant is fixed in one race and absent from the other.30
The variants were not new. In 2003 Feder and nine colleagues reported that the blocks of genes that set the fly's timing sit inside inverted stretches of chromosome, and that those inversions are found in hawthorn flies in the southern United States and Mexico. The apple race, they wrote, "was extracted, in part, from preexisting adaptive inversion clines in the haw race."30 They date the inversions to more than a million years ago. That date comes from a molecular clock and is inferred. The finding that the variation is older than the apple orchards does not depend on the date.
Coyne and Orr sum up: "The most rapidly evolving isolating barriers, as opposed to complete speciation itself, are seen in the two host races of Rhagoletis pomonella." Elsewhere they say that the races "would probably not be accorded species status" under the biological species concept.3
Scored with the series' classes, what was watched is a shift in the frequency of existing variants. No mutation was observed, so nothing is scored. The attraction of apple flies to the smell of apples must be recent, as Coyne and Orr say, and its genetic basis was not found in the sources read here. That cell stays empty. The pattern matches Sticklebacks, where fish adapted to lakes within decades by reusing old variants.
The London Underground mosquito
The story as it is usually told: the mosquito Culex pipiens entered the tunnels of the London Underground when they were dug, and in about a hundred years became a new form, molestus, that bites people, breeds in the dark without a winter rest, and cannot cross with the birds' mosquito above.
The source is a paper by Katharine Byrne and Richard Nichols in 1999. They compared twenty enzyme genes in mosquitoes from Underground stations and from the surface. The underground populations were alike and the surface ones differed from them. In the laboratory, "no offspring were recorded from crosses between Underground and surface populations."33 They considered whether the underground form had come from the Mediterranean and found "little evidence" for it.33 Their conclusion was hedged:
As it appears plausible that colonization of the London Underground has occurred only once, the reproductive isolation could have accumulated in the few hundred generations since then.33
Textbooks dropped the hedge.10 So did creationists, who welcomed the case as proof that species form fast. Carl Wieland wrote in Creation magazine in 1999 that the finding suggested the mosquitoes "have become a new species", or almost so, and that fast speciation is what the Flood model requires.11 A Creation Ministries International article still lists "new species of mosquitoes" among its examples.34
Yuki Haba and Lindy McBride reviewed the older literature in 2022. The same biting form had been reported from cellars near Paris and in Toulouse in 1929, and the name molestus was given in 1775 to a mosquito in the Nile delta. They concluded that the London mosquito "almost certainly did not evolve de novo from local aboveground populations within the last 200 years."35
In 2025 Haba, McBride and a large consortium published the genomes of about 350 mosquitoes from 77 populations, with museum specimens collected in London between 1940 and 1985. Their result "counters the popular hypothesis that molestus originated belowground in London." The form arose above ground, around the Mediterranean or the Middle East, "over the course of more than 1000 years."10 Their own summary uses a stronger word: "Our work debunks one of the most widely cited examples of rapid urban adaptation."10
The date needs a caution. It is computed from a mutation rate and a generation time, "neither of which has been directly measured for Cx. pipiens in nature." The best estimate is about 2,000 years, and the range runs from 1,300 to 12,500.10 The case against a London origin does not rest on the clock alone. The reports from French cellars and the 1775 name are dated documents.
The present position is this. Two forms of one mosquito exist, and in northern Europe they barely interbreed. That was measured and stands. Nobody watched either form arise. The Underground story was an inference offered as an observation, and it belongs in Observed, or Only Inferred?. Both sides of the origins debate used it, and both should withdraw it.
Part 4: Hybrid species without doubling, and the laboratory
Sunflowers
A hybrid can also become a species without doubling its chromosomes, if it sorts the genes of its two parents into a new combination that breeds true. Several wild sunflowers are thought to have arisen this way, among them Helianthus anomalus and H. paradoxus, from the parents H. annuus and H. petiolaris.20
Loren Rieseberg and colleagues crossed the two parents in the greenhouse and followed three hybrid lines. In 1996 they reported that the mix of parental chromosome pieces in the greenhouse lines matched the mix in "an ancient hybrid species", with a correlation of 0.68.36 In 2003 they reported that the extreme traits of the hybrid species could be produced in new hybrids by combining genes the parents already had: "Most trait differences in ancient hybrids could be recreated by complementary gene action in synthetic hybrids."37
What was watched is the re-creation. The origin of the wild species is inferred, and the authors' own word for them is "ancient." Only the abstracts of the two papers were read for this article, and they do not say that the greenhouse lines were isolated from their parents. The traits came from new combinations of existing genes. In the series' terms nothing was originated, and the count is zero.
The Big Bird finches
In one case a hybrid animal lineage was followed from its first generation. Peter and Rosemary Grant were watching the finches of Daphne Major in the Galápagos when a strange male arrived and bred with a resident female. Genome sequencing later identified him as Geospiza conirostris from Española, more than 100 kilometres away. "From the second generation onward, the lineage bred endogamously", which means its members mated only with each other. The authors call it "a directly documented example, from its origin to reproductive isolation", established "in only three" generations.9
The isolation is by behaviour. No test has shown that the birds could not breed with their neighbours. The case is treated in Darwin's Finches.
Forty years of laboratory experiments
If species form by selection, it should be possible to start the process in a laboratory. People have tried since the 1950s, almost always with flies.
The best-known result is Diane Dodd's, published in 1989. She took eight populations of the fruit fly Drosophila pseudoobscura, all descended from one wild population from Bryce Canyon in Utah. Four had been raised on a starch food and four on a maltose food for about a year. She then raised flies from each for one generation on ordinary food and let them choose mates. Of 1,558 matings scored, starch flies and maltose flies preferred their own kind. Her isolation index runs from zero for random mating to one for complete isolation. It averaged "0.33 for the tests of starch versus maltose, 0.05 for the tests within the starch regime, and -0.01 for the tests within the maltose regime."38
An index of 0.33 means that about two matings in three were between flies of the same food line and one in three was between lines.39 The preference was real, it appeared as a side effect of adapting to food, and it appeared in every one of the sixteen pairings. It was also far from isolation. Dodd did not test whether the hybrids were fertile, and she did not call the lines species.
William Rice and Ellen Hostert reviewed the whole field in 1993. Their abstract gives the result: "Strong support is found for the evolution of reproductive isolation via pleiotropy and/or genetic hitchhiking with or without allopatry. Little or no support is found for the bottleneck and reinforcement models of speciation."40 Pleiotropy and hitchhiking both mean that isolation arrives as a side effect of selection for something else. They also reported that selection on a single trait typically gave only incomplete isolation, and they cited one experiment, by Rice and Salt in 1990, as reaching complete isolation under strong selection on several traits at once.40 That experiment's own report was not read for this article.
Coyne and Orr brought the list up to date in 2004. Of 19 experiments, all on flies, "ten resulted in behavioral isolation (positive assortative mating between lines), eight showed no behavioral isolation, and one gave equivocal results."3 The isolation was usually weak. In nine of the studies it averaged 0.12 on the same scale as Dodd's.3 It was not always stable: "In several experiments, however, sexual isolation emerged erratically, waxing and waning over the course of the study."3 Hybrid sterility or death was properly tested in three studies and found in one.3 Their summary is the third quotation at the head of this article.3 Not one experiment produced complete isolation.
They do not think that is a failure. Their view is that ten to a hundred generations is too short for a species to form, and that partial isolation in that time is more than expected.3 That is a fair reading. It is also an extrapolation. The experiments show the first part of the road and not the end of it.
Part 5: What each side says
Creationist organisations accept speciation
The claim that creationists deny new species is out of date by decades. The list of arguments that creationists should not use, written when Creation Ministries International and Answers in Genesis were one body, has this entry under "No new species have been produced":
This is not true—new species have been observed to form. In fact, rapid speciation is an important part of the creation model. But this speciation is within the ‘kind’, and involves no new genetic information2
Answers in Genesis carried the same entry on its own site.41 Paul Garner wrote in its magazine in 2009: "Species do change. Since Darwin's day, many observations have confirmed this. In fact, new species have even been shown to arise within a single human lifetime."42 Joel Tay of Creation Ministries International goes further: "The Biblical Creation model actually predicts and requires not just speciation, but rapid speciation!"34 Jake Ramgren, writing for a creationist research group in 2025, says that "Creationism requires the origin of species just as much as Darwin did."43
The second half of the list entry is a claim about information, and Part 2 found it correct for polyploidy. It is not shown for every case. The genetic basis of the apple fly's new preference is not known, so nobody can say whether it involved anything new.
The popular lists, checked
The best-known lists of observed speciation are two pages on the TalkOrigins Archive. The older one is by Chris Stassen and three others. Joseph Boxhorn's "Observed Instances of Speciation," last updated in 1995, began from it and is much longer.22 Eight of their cases were checked against the primary papers for this article.
| Case | List | Verdict | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primula kewensis | Boxhorn | Holds | Doubling seen three times. Boxhorn credits the cross to Digby, who counted the chromosomes; the hybrid first arose by itself among seedlings.5 |
| Tragopogon | Boxhorn | Holds | Part 1. The list misspells Ownbey. |
| Raphanobrassica | Boxhorn | Not verified | The 1928 paper could not be obtained. |
| Drosophila paulistorum | Both | Doubtful | The authors' title says "incipient species."44 Coyne and Orr suspect the cultures were contaminated.3 Hybrid sterility in these flies is caused by bacteria they carry.45 |
| Dodd's flies | Boxhorn | Holds as a mating preference | Part 4. The lines were not species. |
| Apple maggot fly | Boxhorn | Fairly stated | Boxhorn calls them host races and reports the researchers' caution.22 |
| The worm Nereis acuminata | Boxhorn | Fails | A laboratory stock was said to have speciated in under thirty years. The first author of that claim later co-wrote a paper whose title ends "allozyme electrophoretic evidence does not support the hypothesis".46 |
| Faeroe Island house mouse | Stassen | Not shown | The list itself says the test "is based on morphology."47 |
Three hold, and two of those are polyploid plants. Boxhorn's page is careful in its text. Its title is what travels, and the title covers cases that are partial isolation, inference, or error.
The real dispute
Both sides agree that species form, and that they can form fast. They disagree about what that shows. The mainstream view is that the small divergences watched over decades add up to the large ones over millions of years. The creationist view is that species sort and recombine what their created ancestors carried, inside limits. The mechanism is the subject of The Creation Model of Rapid Speciation. What this article can supply to that argument is a plain fact: in every case here where the genetics is known, the new species or race was built from variation that already existed.
Part 6: The species problem
Every count of observed speciation depends on what is counted as a species. Three tests are in common use. The biological species concept asks whether two groups can exchange genes. The morphological concept asks whether they can be told apart. The ecological concept asks whether they live in different ways.
| Case | Cannot exchange genes | Can be told apart | Lives differently | Watched? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tragopogon mirus, T. miscellus | Yes, by chromosome number | Yes | Not read | Yes |
| Primula kewensis | Yes, by chromosome number | Yes, a "giant form" | No, a greenhouse plant | Yes |
| Senecio cambrensis | Yes, by chromosome number | Yes | Not read | Yes |
| Mimulus peregrinus | Expected, not tested | Yes | Not read | Yes |
| Senecio eboracensis | Partly | Yes | Partly | Yes |
| Apple and hawthorn flies | No, 6% exchange | No | Yes | Yes |
| Underground mosquito | Yes in the north, no in the south | No | Yes | No |
| Hybrid sunflowers | Not read | Yes | Yes | No, re-created |
| Big Bird finches | By behaviour only | Yes, by bill and song | Not read | Yes |
| Dodd's flies | No, index 0.33 | No | Yes, by food | Yes |
Only the polyploid plants pass the strictest test and were also watched. That is why they lead this article. A looser test gives a longer list: Coyne and Orr note that the apple and hawthorn flies count as species under a concept that asks only for distinct genetic clusters.3 A reader who meets a claim that speciation has been observed dozens of times should ask which test was used.
Objections and responses
"A polyploid is only technically a species. It is the same plant with extra chromosomes." The observed cases are hybrids of two species, so they are not the same plant as either parent. They cannot breed back to either one, they breed true, and they have persisted and spread for seventy years in the wild. That meets the strictest definition biologists use. Creation Ministries International grants it.12
"If speciation is observed, evolution is observed, and the argument is over." What was observed is reproductive isolation. The question this series asks is a different one: where does new functional sequence come from, and how fast? Polyploid speciation originates none. The animal cases drew on old variation. Observed speciation is evidence that lineages split. It is not evidence about how the genes they carry were built.
"Doubling a genome is how new genes begin. The spare copies are free to change." That is the mainstream account, and it may be right. It has not been watched in these plants. After forty generations the spare copies in Tragopogon are being lost and silenced, and no new function has been reported. Forty generations is a short test. The long-run claim rests on comparing genomes and is weighed in Gene Duplication and Divergence.
"No new information means nothing happened." This is the objection to this article's own side. Something happened. A population that could not exist before now exists, with a combination of two genomes that neither parent has, a larger body, and its own future. The series' count of nucleotides reads zero because the count was built to measure one kind of work. A zero on that ledger does not make the event small.
"Laboratory experiments failed to make a species, so selection cannot make one." The experiments ran for tens of generations. They produced partial isolation in about half the attempts, as a side effect, without anyone selecting for it. That is the direction the mainstream account predicts. What the experiments cannot show is how far the process goes, and neither side should claim they do.
"The young-earth model needs thousands of new animal species in a few thousand years. Nothing observed is that fast." This is the strongest objection to the creationist use of these cases. The instant speciation is in plants, and the mechanism is nearly closed to animals. The animal cases show partial isolation after a hundred or two hundred generations. The Big Bird finches were isolated in three generations, by behaviour, and whether that isolation will last is not known. Whether rates like these can fill the young-earth timescale is a calculation that has not been done here. It is left to The Creation Model of Rapid Speciation, and it should be done with the numbers in this article and in Cichlid Radiations.
"The mosquito's date of 1,300 to 12,500 years is as much an inference as the story it replaced." Yes. Its low end fits a young-earth timescale and its high end does not. The documents do not depend on it: the same mosquito was described in Egypt in 1775 and found in French cellars before it was found in London.
Issues and unanswered questions
- Ownbey did not test the isolation by crossing. His 1950 paper infers it from the doubled chromosome number, with the word "presumably" (p. 497). The artificial crosses came later (Ownbey and McCollum 1953), and this article has not read that paper.
- Karpechenko's 1928 paper was not obtained, so Raphanobrassica is reported and not verified.
- Seven other papers were read only in abstract: Feder 1988, Rieseberg 1996 and 2003, Lamichhaney 2018, Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky 1971, and the four papers from the Biological Journal of the Linnean Society of 2004. The paper on Nereis was read only by its title.
- Are the gene losses in young polyploids adaptive, neutral or harmful? The papers read do not say. Until that is known they cannot be scored.
- What is the genetic basis of the apple fly's preference for apples? It is the one trait in that case that must be new, and this article could not score it.
- Does any young polyploid show a duplicated gene with a new, useful function? None was found in the sources read. A single documented case would change Part 2.
- The ledger cell is empty. The series ends its organism articles on unique functional sequence created per organism and generation. For polyploid plants the numerator is zero. For the flies it is unknown, and no population size was found for any case here. No figure is printed.
Verdict
Speciation has been observed. New plant species have formed in the wild and in greenhouses within living memory, by the doubling of hybrid chromosomes, and they are isolated from their parents from the first generation. Tragopogon mirus and T. miscellus are the best-documented cases, and they are beyond reasonable dispute. Creationist organisations say so themselves, and any creationist who denies it is wrong.
The same evidence sets limits. Polyploidy adds two existing genomes together and originates no gene. The young genomes lose genes. The mechanism is common in plants and nearly absent in animals. In animals, what has been watched is partial isolation drawn from old variation, in flies over at most two hundred generations and in laboratory lines over a year. The most famous animal case, the London Underground mosquito, was never observed and did not happen as told.
For the question this series asks, the result is a lower bound with a warning on it. Observed speciation has so far created no unique functional sequence that anyone has measured. It has also shown that a ledger of sequence can read zero while a new species comes into being. Both facts go into Benchmarking Evolution.
Sources
- 1.
Ownbey, Marion. “Natural hybridization and amphiploidy in the genus Tragopogon.” American Journal of Botany 37(7):487–499. 1950. Read in full on 2026-09-27 in the facsimile reprint in Paul R. Ehrlich, Richard W. Holm and Peter H. Raven (comps.), Papers on Evolution (Boston: Little, Brown, 1968), Internet Archive papersonevolutio0000ehrl, by archive.org search-inside (the item is print-disabled). The reprint keeps the journal's page numbers; they were checked against HathiTrust's full-text search of the journal volume (uc1.31175002405309) and the publisher's image of p. 487. The abstract on the JSTOR page is the paper's printed Summary, p. 498. Amphiploid is Ownbey's word for a fertile hybrid with doubled chromosomes. Copyright.
- 1a.
Page 498, section Summary: “They are accorded species rank, described and named T. mirus (amphiploid T. dubius x porrifolius) and T. miscellus (amphiploid T. dubius x pratensis).” ↩
- 1b.
Page 498, section Summary: “Four small amphiploid populations were discovered in 1949. These represent apparently four recent and independent instances of the doubling of the chromosome sets, two cases each for the T. dubius x porrifolius and T. dubius x pratensis hybrids.” ↩ ↩
- 1c.
Page 493: “Two colonies of this amphiploid (fig. 11) were studied, one in Pullman, Washington, and one in Palouse, Washington, 15 mi. away. … Two colonies of this amphiploid (fig. 4, 12) were studied, both in Moscow, Idaho.” ↩
- 1d.
Page 493: “Each colony included between thirty and thirty-five individuals, scattered over a few hundred square yards. They were separated by about a mile.” ↩
- 1e.
Page 493: “In the season of 1949 four small colonies were detected in which the members differed from the corresponding diploid hybrids in their very evident fertility and in the possession of conspicuous "gigas" features.” ↩
- 1f.
Page 497: “(3) Gene interchange between the amphiploids and the parental species is prevented by a genetic barrier (ploidy level), and presumably residual sterility factors—evident in the F1 hybrids—would prevent free interbreeding between the two.” ↩
- 1g.
Page 497: “The four known colonies probably represent four independent instances of chromosome doubling, and the subsequent establishment of the resultant tetraploid. Considering the frequency of all three F1 hybrid combinations, however, chromosome doubling must be an exceedingly rare event.” ↩
- 1h.
Page 497: “Although the populations are still small and precarious, fertility is good and these species are competing successfully with their parents.” ↩
- 1i.
Page 498, section Summary: “These diploid hybrids for all three species combinations are highly sterile, not more than 1-2 per cent of the flowers producing fruits with embryos.” ↩
- 1j.
Page 498, section Summary: “They are moderately fertile, on the average from 52-66 per cent of the flowers producing fruits with embryos. They are established and true-breeding entities, although population size is still precariously small.” ↩
- 1a.
- 2.
Sarfati, Jonathan. “Arguments we think creationists should NOT use.” Creation Ministries International. Feb 7, 2006. Retrieved Sep 27, 2026. The page carries the date 7 February 2006 and has been revised since. The list was first written when Creation Ministries International and Answers in Genesis were one organisation. Copyright.
- 2a.
Section Which arguments should definitely not be used?: “This is not true—new species have been observed to form. In fact, rapid speciation is an important part of the creation model. But this speciation is within the ‘kind’, and involves no new genetic information”. The list entry is headed “No new species have been produced.” ↩ ↩ ↩
- 2a.
- 3.
Coyne, Jerry A., and H. Allen Orr. Speciation. Sinauer Associates. 2004. Read on archive.org, item speciation0000coyn, which cannot be borrowed, by searching inside it paragraph by paragraph. The archive's own table of leaves gives printed page = leaf − 18 near the front of the book and leaf − 20 from chapter 4 on. That was checked against the book's index in three places: laboratory experiments at pages 88 to 89, Rhagoletis pomonella at page 162, and Tragopogon at page 265. Copyright.
- 3a.
Pages 90–91: “More than half of the published experiments showed either pre- or postzygotic isolation. Although this proportion may reflect a publication bias, obtaining isolation as a byproduct of selection cannot be rare. More surprisingly, such isolation can evolve within 10-100 generations, a blink of the eye in evolutionary time. Although in no case was reproductive isolation complete, one does not expect full speciation to occur in so few generations.” The passage crosses from page 90 to page 91 in the middle of the word “proportion”. The archive's text prints “Was” with a capital in the last sentence, which is a scanning error. ↩ ↩ ↩
- 3b.
Pages 321–322: “produces triploid (3x) offspring. These progeny are often sterile because meiosis cannot proceed properly due to problems in chromosome pairing /segregation in a genome having an odd number of chromosome sets”. “Our new tetraploid is therefore reproductively isolated from its diploid ancestors and—assuming it can give rise to an interbreeding population—represents a new species.” The sentence begins at the foot of page 321 with the cross between a new tetraploid and a diploid. ↩
- 3c.
Page 322: “polyploid speciation is instantaneous, sympatric, and may often involve population bottlenecks.” “Polyploidy also represents the most profound difference between plant and animal speciation: as we will see, polyploid speciation is common in plants but rare in animals.” ↩
- 3d.
Page 327: “A similar analysis suggests that 2%—4% of speciation events in angiosperms involve polyploidy (Otto and Whitton 2000).” Wood and colleagues cite the same earlier estimates. ↩
- 3e.
Page 333: “The rarity of polyploidy in animals compared to plants, which was recognized early on (Gates 1924; Muller 1925), probably represents “the greatest known difference between the evolutionary patterns in the two kingdoms” (Dobzhansky 1937b, p. 219).” “We emphasize, however, that the correct answer remains unknown.” ↩
- 3f.
Page 334: “Muller argued that the diploid sex-determining mechanism present in dioecious animals blocks polyploid speciation. Using Drosophila as a model, he showed that the cross of a new tetraploid individual to a diploid produces sterile intersexes, supermales, superfemales, etc.—everything but fertile tetraploids.” “their list of insect and vertebrate cases shows that most polyploid animals are parthenogenetic”. ↩
- 3g.
Page 426: “The most rapidly evolving isolating barriers, as opposed to complete speciation itself, are seen in the two host races of Rhagoletis pomonella. Some factors preventing gene flow, such as the preference of the apple race for volatile compounds of apples, must have arisen within the last 200 years. Other reproductive barriers between these races, however, might be much older (Chapter 4).” Page 450: “which form GCSC species but would probably not be accorded species status by the BSC.” BSC is the biological species concept. GCSC is the genotypic cluster species concept, which asks only for distinct clusters of genotypes. ↩ ↩
- 3h.
Page 89: “All 19 experiments involved Diptera: house flies, melon flies, and Drosophila. All but one study incorporated post-selection tests for sexual isolation. Among all studies, ten resulted in behavioral isolation (positive assortative mating between lines), eight showed no behavioral isolation, and one gave equivocal results.” ↩
- 3i.
Pages 89–90: “In most studies, however, sexual isolation was much lower: the mean among nine studies analyzed by Ringo et al (1985) was 0.12.” ↩
- 3j.
Page 90: “In several experiments, however, sexual isolation emerged erratically, waxing and waning over the course of the study (Florin and Odeen 2002).” ↩
- 3k.
Page 90: “In only three studies was postzygotic isolation examined properly”. “Among these, only one experiment found such isolation”. ↩
- 3l.
Page 87: “Given the rates of speciation estimated in nature (Chapter 12), we do not expect even long-term laboratory studies—those lasting 10-100 generations—to yield substantial reproductive isolation.” ↩
- 3m.
Page 87: “The one exception appears to be Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky’s (1966) observation that a strain of Drosophila paulistorum raised in the laboratory for five years without selection showed hybrid male sterility in crosses with other conspecific strains. But this result may have been due to contamination of cultures by other subspecies.” ↩
- 3a.
- 4.
Lim, K. Yoong et al. “Rapid chromosome evolution in recently formed polyploids in Tragopogon (Asteraceae).” PLoS ONE 3(10):e3353. Oct 9, 2008. Open access, CC BY. Read from the publisher's page.
- 4a.
Section Introduction: “The two allotetraploids now occupy a large geographic area of eastern Washington and adjacent Idaho, USA, and comprise many thousands of individuals in several populations. Molecular analyses have revealed that T. mirus has recurrently formed at least 13 times and T. miscellus possibly as many as 21 times”. ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩
- 4a.
- 5.
Newton, W. C. F., and Caroline Pellew. “Primula kewensis and its derivatives.” Journal of Genetics 20(3):405–467. 1929. Read from the scan hosted by the Indian Academy of Sciences. The scan's text layer is unreliable, so every quotation here was read from the page image. The printed page number is at the head of each page.
- 5a.
Page 424: “The diploid hybrid has been observed to set seed on three occasions, and each time the seed produced has given rise to tetraploid plants. The first was in 1905, five years after the first appearance of the hybrid, in the nurseries of Messrs Veitch; the second, in 1923, at Kew; and the third, in 1926, at this Institution.” “This Institution” is the John Innes Horticultural Institution. ↩ ↩
- 5b.
Page 406: “Primula kewensis appeared originally at Kew in 1900 among seedlings of P. floribunda, and was supposed to be a hybrid between that species and P. verticillata”. “On several occasions this highly sterile hybrid has produced fertile flowers, the seed of which gives rise to a fertile giant form. Within limits to be described more closely below, the fertile form breeds true.” ↩ ↩ ↩
- 5c.
Page 423: “A single plant first appeared among seedlings of floribunda at Kew in 1899.” Page 406 says 1900, and page 424 counts five years from the first appearance to 1905. ↩
- 5d.
Page 406: “They found that the diploid number of chromosomes, alike in the parent species and in the sterile hybrid, was 18, while in the fertile giant form the number was 36. This was the first example of a sterile hybrid producing seed, the change being associated with a doubling of the number of chromosomes”. “They” are Digby in 1912 and Farmer and Digby in 1914, whose papers were not read for this article. ↩
- 5a.
- 6.
Buggs, Richard J. A. et al. “Rapid, repeated, and clustered loss of duplicate genes in allopolyploid plant populations of independent origin.” Current Biology 22(3):248–252. 2012. Read from the publisher's open archive, which has no page numbers. Copyright.
- 6a.
Section Frequency of Homeolog Loss: “An average of 13 (∼20%) of the 70 loci investigated in each plant of T. miscellus were missing alleles of one homeolog, with high variation (min = 0, max = 33, SD = 6.8).” “on average at least 7.7% (SD = 4.3) of the original 280 allele copies have been lost in an individual plant's lineage since WGD.” WGD is whole-genome duplication. A homeolog is one of the two parental copies of a gene. ↩ ↩
- 6a.
- 7.
Wood, Troy E. et al. “The frequency of polyploid speciation in vascular plants.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(33):13875–13879. 2009. Read from the PubMed Central copy, which has no page numbers. Copyright. Mirror: PMC
- 7a.
Section Abstract: “we establish that 15% of angiosperm and 31% of fern speciation events are accompanied by ploidy increase. These frequency estimates are higher by a factor of four than earlier estimates and lead to a standing incidence of polyploid species within genera of 35% (n = 1,506).” ↩
- 7b.
Section Results and Discussion: “For angiosperms, we sampled 1,813 speciation events within 123 phylogenetic trees drawn from the plant systematic literature”. “272 of the 1,813 events (15.00 ± 0.84%; ± SE) were accompanied by a shift to a higher ploidy level. For ferns, we examined 204 speciation events within 20 infrageneric phylogenetic trees; 64 (31.37 ± 3.26%) involved an increase in ploidy”. 123 trees of flowering plants and 20 of ferns make 143. ↩
- 7c.
Section Abstract: “Despite this high incidence, we find no direct evidence that polyploid lines, once established, enjoy greater net species diversification.” ↩
- 7a.
- 8.
Feder, Jeffrey L. et al. “Host fidelity is an effective premating barrier between sympatric races of the apple maggot fly.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 91(17):7990–7994. 1994. Read from the scan on PubMed Central. The text layer misprints the sign for “about”, so the two passages with the 6% figure were read from the page images. Copyright. Mirror: PMC
- 8a.
Page 7990: “we confirm that host fidelity (i.e., the tendency of an insect to reproduce on the same host species that it used in earlier life-history stages) restricts gene flow between sympatric apple- and hawthorn-infesting races of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) to ≈6% per generation.” ↩ ↩
- 8b.
Page 7994: “The Rhagoletis story is not complete, however. The ≈6% level of genetic exchange between apple-origin and hawthorn-origin populations suggests that some as yet unidentified form of host-associated, postmating selection prevents fusion of the races.” ↩
- 8c.
- 8a.
- 9.
Lamichhaney, Sangeet et al. “Rapid hybrid speciation in Darwin’s finches.” Science 359(6372):224–228. 2018. Only the abstract was read. The body is behind a login. Copyright.
- 9a.
Section Abstract: “Homoploid hybrid speciation in animals has been inferred frequently from patterns of variation, but few examples have withstood critical scrutiny. Here we report a directly documented example, from its origin to reproductive isolation.” “From the second generation onward, the lineage bred endogamously and, despite intense inbreeding, was ecologically successful and showed transgressive segregation of bill morphology. This example shows that reproductive isolation, which typically develops over hundreds of generations, can be established in only three.” ↩ ↩
- 9a.
- 10.
Haba, Yuki et al. “Ancient origin of an urban underground mosquito.” Science 390. Oct 23, 2025. Article number eady4515. Read from the copy hosted by the Royal Museum for Central Africa. The article is paged 1 to 13, after an unnumbered summary page. A preprint was posted on bioRxiv on 28 January 2025. Copyright. Mirror: Africamuseum.be
- 10a.
Page 1: “Population genomic analysis of ~350 contemporary and historical samples counters the popular hypothesis that molestus originated belowground in London <200 years ago. Instead, we show that molestus first adapted to human environments aboveground in the Mediterranean or Middle East over the course of more than 1000 years, possibly in association with ancient agricultural civilizations of the Middle East.” ↩ ↩
- 10b.
Section Research article summary, Conclusion: “Our work debunks one of the most widely cited examples of rapid urban adaptation—an example that has captured the attention of scientists and laypeople for 25 years.” The summary page is not numbered and comes before page 1. ↩
- 10c.
Page 4: “Accurate assignment of dates to this rCC curve requires knowledge of the de novo mutation rate (μ) and generation time (g), neither of which has been directly measured for Cx. pipiens in nature.” “suggest that peak rates of divergence occurred ~2000 years ago (Fig. 4C, dashed arrow), whereas minimum and maximum reasonable values (32) lead to split times anywhere between 1300 and 12,500 years ago”. The rate used is 4.85 × 10-9 per site per generation and the generation time is 20 days. The exponent was checked against the Methods on page 9. ↩
- 10d.
Section Research article summary, Introduction: “Form molestus features prominently in textbooks as well as scholarly reviews of urban adaptation. Yet, the hypothesis of in situ urban evolution has never been rigorously tested.” ↩
- 10a.
- 11.
Wieland, Carl. “Brisk biters.” Creation 21(2):41. Mar 1999. Retrieved Sep 27, 2026. Read from the web copy, dated 25 January 2006. Wieland was then the head of the organisation that became Creation Ministries International. Copyright.
- 11a.
Paragraph 1–2: “About 100 years ago, bird-biting mosquitoes called Culex pipiens entered the tunnels then being dug for the London Underground (the ‘Tube’).” “British scientists have now found that it is almost impossible to mate those in the Tube with the ones still living above ground, thus suggesting that they have become a new species”. ↩ ↩
- 11a.
- 12.
Lamb, Andrew. “Evolution by fiat and faith.” Creation Ministries International. Mar 30, 2007. Retrieved Sep 27, 2026. Copyright.
- 12a.
Section Polyploidy: “A polyploid plant will usually not be able to breed with the parent species, and can consistently produce offspring with the same number of chromosome sets as itself. This can then be considered a new species. Note that there is no new genetic information involved, just repetition of existing information.” ↩ ↩ ↩
- 12a.
- 13.
Tate, Jennifer A. et al. “Evolution and expression of homeologous loci in Tragopogon miscellus (Asteraceae), a recent and reciprocally formed allopolyploid.” Genetics 173(3):1599–1611. 2006. Read from the PubMed Central copy, which has no page numbers. Copyright.
- 13a.
Section Introduction: “This system represents a classic example of instantaneous speciation via polyploidy. Following the introduction of three diploid (2n = 12) species (Tragopogon dubius, T. pratensis, and T. porrifolius) from Europe to western North America during the early 1900s, two allotetraploid species (T. mirus and T. miscellus) formed (Ownbey 1950).” ↩
- 13b.
Section Introduction: “when T. pratensis is the maternal parent, T. miscellus has short-ligulate ray flowers, and when T. dubius is the maternal parent, T. miscellus has long-ligulate ray flowers (Ownbey 1950; Ownbey and McCollum 1953). Only one existing population of T. miscellus is long liguled (Pullman, WA); all others (∼40) are short liguled (Novak et al. 1991).” ↩
- 13c.
Section Abstract: “Most of the cDNA–AFLP polymorphisms apparently resulted from loss of parental fragments in the polyploids. Importantly, changes at the genomic level have occurred stochastically among individuals within the independently formed populations. Synthetic F1 hybrids between putative diploid progenitors are additive of their parental genomes, suggesting that polyploidization rather than hybridization induces genomic changes in Tragopogon.” ↩
- 13a.
- 14.
Tate, Jennifer A. et al. “Synthetic polyploids of Tragopogon miscellus and T. mirus (Asteraceae): 60 years after Ownbey’s discovery.” American Journal of Botany 96(5):979–988. 2009. Only the abstract was read, from Europe PMC. Copyright.
- 14a.
Section Abstract: “We have made the first synthetic lines of T. mirus and T. miscellus using T. dubius, T. porrifolius, and T. pratensis as parents and colchicine treatment of F(1) hybrids.” “Morphologically, the synthetics resemble the natural polyploids with short- and long-liguled forms of T. miscellus resulting when T. pratensis and T. dubius are reciprocally crossed.” Europe PMC prints the subscript in F1 as F(1). ↩
- 14a.
- 15.
Ashton, Paul A., and Richard J. Abbott. “Multiple origins and genetic diversity in the newly arisen allopolyploid species, Senecio cambrensis Rosser (Compositae).” Heredity 68:25–32. 1992. Read from the publisher's scan, which is free. Copyright.
- 15a.
Page 25: “The hybrid between these plants is a sterile triploid which can give rise to the fertile allohexaploid by a doubling of the chromosome complement.” “The species was first described from the wild by Rosser (1955) following its discovery in 1948 by H. E. Green at Cefn-y-Bedd, near Wrexham, Denbighshire, North Wales.” The same page dates the first contact of the parents in North Wales to about 1910 and reports that the species had been made artificially with colchicine. The place name is broken across two lines in the original. ↩
- 15b.
Page 25: “For no enzyme system were additional allozymes found in S. cambrensis which were not present in one of the respective parents.” ↩ ↩
- 15a.
- 16.
Abbott, R. J., and D. G. Forbes. “Extinction of the Edinburgh lineage of the allopolyploid neospecies, Senecio cambrensis Rosser (Asteraceae).” Heredity 88:267–269. 2002. Free to read. Copyright.
- 16a.
Page 267: “The lineage was present in Edinburgh from at least 1974 and therefore survived in the wild for a minimum of 19 years. The species remains well established in parts of North Wales.” ↩
- 16a.
- 17.
Ainouche, M. L. et al. “Spartina anglica C. E. Hubbard: a natural model system for analysing early evolutionary changes that affect allopolyploid genomes.” Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 82(4):475–484. 2004. Only the abstract was read. Copyright.
- 17a.
Section Abstract: “Spartina anglica arose during the end of the 19th century in England by hybridization between the indigenous Spartina maritima and the introduced East American Spartina alterniflora and following genome duplication of the hybrid (S. × townsendii).” “Various molecular data indicate that S. anglica has resulted from a unique parental genotype. This young species contains two distinctly divergent homoeologous genomes that have not undergone extensive change since their reunion.” ↩ ↩
- 17a.
- 18.
Vallejo-Marín, Mario. “Mimulus peregrinus (Phrymaceae): A new British allopolyploid species.” PhytoKeys 14:1–14. 2012. Open access, CC BY. Read from the PubMed Central copy.
- 18a.
Section Methods: “Field surveys in August 2011 uncovered the existence of fertile individuals in a large population of Mimulus × robertsii in South Lanarkshire, Scotland.” The abstract gives the chromosome numbers: 92 in the new species, 44 to 45 in the sterile hybrid, 28 and 60 to 62 in the parents. ↩
- 18b.
Section Abstract: “an example of recent allopolyploid speciation.” The sentence says that the evidence suggests the species may constitute such an example. The PubMed Central copy runs the words “may” and “constitute” together, so they are paraphrased here and not quoted. ↩
- 18a.
- 19.
Abbott, Richard J., and Andrew J. Lowe. “Origins, establishment and evolution of new polyploid species: Senecio cambrensis and S. eboracensis in the British Isles.” Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 82(4):467–474. 2004. Only the abstract was read. Copyright.
- 19a.
Section Abstract: “One of these is the allohexaploid S. cambrensis (2n = 60), the other is the recombinant tetraploid S. eboracensis (2n = 40).” ↩
- 19a.
- 20.
Lowe, A. J., and R. J. Abbott. “Reproductive isolation of a new hybrid species, Senecio eboracensis Abbott & Lowe (Asteraceae).” Heredity 92:386–395. 2004. Free to read. Copyright.
- 20a.
Page 386: “No hybrid offspring between S. eboracensis and S. squalidus were found in the wild, and only one such hybrid was recorded among 769 progeny produced by S. eboracensis surrounded by S. squalidus on an experimental plot. Natural crossing between S. eboracensis and S. vulgaris was recorded to be very low (between 0 and 1.46%) in the wild, but rose to 18.3% when individuals of S. eboracensis were surrounded by plants of S. vulgaris.” The abstract on the same page gives the seed set of the hybrids: 0.63% for the cross with S. squalidus, and 63.8% and 58.8% for the first two generations of the cross with S. vulgaris. Page 387 dates the discovery to 1979. ↩
- 20b.
Page 386: “in the outcrossing, homoploid hybrid species, Helianthus anomalus and H. paradoxus, prezygotic isolation is achieved from both parent taxa, H. annuus and H. petiolaris, by ecological separation”. A third species, H. deserticola, is usually named with these two. It is treated in the body of Rieseberg's 2003 paper, which was not read. ↩
- 20a.
- 21.
Karpechenko, G. D. “Hybrids of ♀ Raphanus sativus L. × ♂ Brassica oleracea L.” Journal of Genetics 14(3):375–396. 1924. Read from the scan hosted by the Indian Academy of Sciences. The later paper on the fertile polyploids, in Zeitschrift für induktive Abstammungs- und Vererbungslehre 48:1–85 (1928), was not obtained.
- 21a.
Page 394: Point 8 of the Summary says that the hybrids remain sterile when crossed with each other or with the parental forms. The scan's text layer is too damaged to quote. ↩
- 21a.
- 22.
Boxhorn, Joseph. “Observed Instances of Speciation.” TalkOrigins Archive. Sep 1, 1995. Retrieved Sep 27, 2026. The archived copy prints “Last Update: September 1, 1995”. The byline is blank in both copies read; the attribution to Boxhorn is the archive's. Copyright. Mirror: Archive.org
- 22a.
Section 5.1.1.4 Raphanobrassica: “Plants grown from the seeds were interfertile with each other. They were not interfertile with either parental species.” ↩
- 22b.
Section 1.1 Acknowledgements: “My starting point was the references contained in the old speciation FAQ. I wish to thank the authors of this, Chris Stassen, James Meritt, Anneliese Lilje and L. Drew Davis.” ↩
- 22c.
Section 5.5.1 Apple Maggot Fly: “It is important to note that some of the leading researchers on this question are urging caution in interpreting it.” ↩
- 22a.
- 23.
The scoring procedure of Measuring Biological Information asks four questions in order. Question 1 asks whether the sequence arrived from another species. In a hybrid, each parent's genome arrives in a cell that holds the other's, so the cross is scored as a transfer. Question 4 covers an existing element that “is present in more copies”, which describes doubling. Both classes count zero new nucleotides under that article's conversion rule: zero for a transfer in the receiver, and zero for a copy. The sibling article on sticklebacks scores extra copies of the Fads2 gene the same way. The later losses are not scored, because the procedure does not score a change that has not been shown to help the organism. Restored fertility is a benefit to the hybrid line, so the doubling itself is scored. ↩
- 24.
Sarfati, Jonathan. “Refutation of New Scientist’s Evolution: 24 myths and misconceptions.” Creation Ministries International. Dec 3, 2008. Retrieved Sep 27, 2026. Copyright.
- 24a.
Section Natural selection leads to ever-greater complexity: “In plants, but not in animals (possibly with rare exceptions), the doubling of all the chromosomes may result in an individual which can no longer interbreed with the parent type—this is called polyploidy. Although this may technically be called a new species, because of the reproductive isolation, no new information has been produced, just repetitious doubling of existing information.” ↩
- 24a.
- 25.
Chester, Michael et al. “Extensive chromosomal variation in a recently formed natural allopolyploid species, Tragopogon miscellus (Asteraceae).” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(4):1176–1181. 2012. Read from the PubMed Central copy, which has no page numbers. Copyright. Mirror: PMC
- 25a.
Section Introduction: “This species is ∼80 y old (ca. 40 generations for this biennial), having formed repeatedly in North America after the introduction of its diploid (2n = 12) progenitors, Tragopogon dubius and Tragopogon pratensis, from Europe in the early 1900s”. ↩
- 25b.
Section Abstract: “No population was fixed for a particular karyotype; 76% of the individuals showed intergenomic translocations, and 69% were aneuploid for one or more chromosomes.” ↩
- 25c.
Section Introduction: “However, over recent time scales, polyploids diversify more slowly than their diploid relatives and are more likely to go extinct, perhaps due in part to the unstable nature of neopolyploids”. The source cites Mayrose and colleagues, Science 333:1257 (2011), which was not read for this article. ↩
- 25a.
- 26.
Soltis, Douglas E. et al. “Recent and recurrent polyploidy in Tragopogon (Asteraceae): cytogenetic, genomic and genetic comparisons.” Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 82(4):485–501. 2004. Only the abstract was read. Its statement that the chromosomes showed no major rearrangement was overtaken by Chester and colleagues in 2012. Copyright.
- 26a.
Section Abstract: “Approximately 5% of the genes examined in the allopolyploid populations have been silenced, and an additional 4% exhibit novel gene expression relative to their diploid parents.” ↩
- 26a.
- 27.
At least 13 origins of T. mirus plus possibly as many as 21 of T. miscellus is 34.4 The parents arrived in the early 1900s and the counts were published in 2008, a span of about eighty years once the parents had spread. The figure of 21 is an upper estimate in the source, so 34 is the larger of the possible totals and the text should be read as “up to 34”. ↩
- 28.
Mable, Barbara K. “‘Why polyploidy is rarer in animals than in plants’: myths and mechanisms.” Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 82(4):453–466. 2004. Only the abstract was read. Copyright.
- 28a.
Section Abstract: “Although polyploidy has been involved in speciation in both animals and plants, the general perception is often that it is too rare to have been a significant factor in animal evolution and its role in plant diversification has been questioned. These views have resulted in a bias towards explanations for what deters polyploidy, rather than the somewhat more interesting question of the mechanisms by which polyploidy arises and becomes established in both plants and animals.” ↩
- 28a.
- 29.
Walsh, Benjamin D. “The apple-worm and the apple-maggot.” The American Journal of Horticulture and Florist’s Companion 2:338–343. J. E. Tilton. 1867. Public domain. Read from the archive.org scan. The page numbers are the printed ones, which the scan's page index supplies and the running head on page 338 confirms.
- 29a.
Page 338: “The second larva, the apple-maggot, is a native-American species, and breeds naturally in our wild haws and crabs, but, within the last few years, has been noticed to attack the cultivated apple in Massachusetts, in Connecticut, in New York, and probably in Vermont also.” ↩ ↩
- 29b.
Page 338: “It would seem as if, in this as in many other cases, it is only a local race of the species that has acquired the habit of attacking tame and imported instead of wild and indigenous species of plants; and that this race transmits to its descendants, by the law of inheritance, the peculiar habits which it has itself incidentally acquired.” Walsh's explanation is the inheritance of an acquired habit, which is not the modern account. ↩
- 29a.
- 30.
Feder, Jeffrey L. et al. “Allopatric genetic origins for sympatric host-plant shifts and race formation in Rhagoletis.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100(18):10314–10319. 2003. Read from the PubMed Central copy, which has no page numbers. Copyright. Mirror: PMC
- 30a.
Section Introduction: “Bush (4) later hypothesized that the entire complex of six or more sibling species comprising the R. pomonella group, to which the apple maggot belongs, arose by means of sympatric host shifts.” Bush's paper, Evolution 23:237–251 (1969), could not be obtained and is cited through this description of it. ↩
- 30b.
Section Introduction: “In particular, the 3- to 4-week earlier phenology of apple selects for a deeper pupal diapause (greater recalcitrance to nondiapause development) in apple flies, allowing them to better withstand longer periods of warm weather before winter.” ↩
- 30c.
Section Introduction: “The host races display significant allele frequency, but not fixed, genetic differences for six allozymes mapping to three different regions of the genome (7, 8). (Frequency differences average from 0.10 to 0.20 at sympatric sites, but are often as high as 0.3.)” ↩
- 30d.
Section Introduction: “Thus, the sympatrically derived apple race was extracted, in part, from preexisting adaptive inversion clines in the haw race.” The abstract dates the separation of the Mexican and northern populations to about 1.57 million years ago, from sequence differences. ↩
- 30a.
- 31.
Feder, Jeffrey L. et al. “Genetic differentiation between sympatric host races of the apple maggot fly Rhagoletis pomonella.” Nature 336:61–64. 1988. Only the abstract was read. Copyright.
- 31a.
Section Abstract: “We report finding genetic differentiation between co-occurring hawthorn and apple populations of R. pomonella at a field site near Grant, Michigan. The result confirms that hawthorn and apple flies represent partially reproductively isolated 'host races' and is consistent with a sympatric mode of divergence for these flies.” The same abstract places the shift to apples “in the past 200 years”. ↩ ↩
- 31a.
- 32.
Feder and colleagues state that the flies have one generation a year.8 Their 1988 paper places the shift “in the past 200 years”, and Walsh in 1867 says “within the last few years”.31 29 At one generation a year, 200 years is 200 generations. If the shift began about 1860, the measurements of 1994 were made about 134 generations later. Six percent gene flow leaves 100 − 6 = 94% isolation before mating. ↩
- 33.
Byrne, Katharine, and Richard A. Nichols. “Culex pipiens in London Underground tunnels: differentiation between surface and subterranean populations.” Heredity 82:7–15. 1999. Free to read. Copyright.
- 33a.
Page 13: “no offspring were recorded from crosses between Underground and surface populations.” Page 14 of the paper notes that infection with the bacterium Wolbachia can make crosses between mosquito populations fail. ↩
- 33b.
Page 13: “Little evidence has been found to support the proposal that the London Underground was colonized from this source. The alleles found in the Underground do not include any that are otherwise found only outside Britain.” ↩
- 33c.
Page 14: “As it appears plausible that colonization of the London Underground has occurred only once, the reproductive isolation could have accumulated in the few hundred generations since then.” ↩
- 33a.
- 34.
Tay, Joel. “Is speciation different from evolution?” Creation Ministries International. May 16, 2018. Retrieved Aug 15, 2026. Tay is a speaker and writer for Creation Ministries International. The date is the one in the page's own data. Copyright.
- 34a.
Section Reply to the reader, paragraph 1: “In fact, we had written about how the rapid rate of speciation continues to astonish evolutionists in cases of new species of mosquitoes , weeds , and house mice .” Each of the three words is a link in the original, which is why a space stands before each comma in the copy read. ↩
- 34b.
Section Reply to the reader, paragraph 1: “The Biblical Creation model actually predicts and requires not just speciation, but rapid speciation! Creationists believe that after the Flood, each animal kind (baramin) rapidly diversified, over just a few thousand years, often forming new species in the process. But speciation is not evolution!” ↩
- 34a.
- 35.
Haba, Yuki, and Lindy McBride. “Origin and status of Culex pipiens mosquito ecotypes.” Current Biology 32(5):R237–R246. 2022. Read from the author manuscript on PubMed Central, which has no page numbers. It spells Nichols as Nicols. Copyright. Mirror: PMC
- 35a.
Section The contentious theory of in situ adaptation in the London Underground: “The London Underground Mosquito almost certainly did not evolve de novo from local aboveground populations within the last 200 years, but there are still many interesting questions to answer surrounding its ultimate origin and spread.” The reports from Paris and Toulouse in 1929 are in the section headed “Culex pipiens comprises distinct above and belowground ecotypes in colder northern climates”. The 1775 name is in the section quoted. ↩
- 35a.
- 36.
Rieseberg, Loren H. et al. “Role of gene interactions in hybrid speciation: evidence from ancient and experimental hybrids.” Science 272(5262):741–745. 1996. Only the abstract was read. Copyright.
- 36a.
Section Abstract: “To study this process, the genomic composition of three experimentally synthesized hybrid lineages was compared with that of an ancient hybrid species. The genomic composition of the synthesized and ancient hybrids was concordant (rs = 0.68, P < 0.0001), indicating that selection to a large extent governs hybrid species formation.” ↩
- 36a.
- 37.
Rieseberg, Loren H. et al. “Major ecological transitions in wild sunflowers facilitated by hybridization.” Science 301(5637):1211–1216. 2003. Only the abstract was read. Copyright.
- 37a.
Section Abstract: “In sunflowers, species found in the most extreme habitats are ancient hybrids, and new gene combinations generated by hybridization are speculated to have contributed to ecological divergence. This possibility was tested through phenotypic and genomic comparisons of ancient and synthetic hybrids. Most trait differences in ancient hybrids could be recreated by complementary gene action in synthetic hybrids and were favored by selection.” ↩
- 37a.
- 38.
Dodd, Diane M. B. “Reproductive isolation as a consequence of adaptive divergence in Drosophila pseudoobscura.” Evolution 43(6):1308–1311. 1989. Read from the publisher's scan. The printed page numbers are on the pages. Copyright.
- 38a.
Page 1309: “Averaging the isolation indices within the three categories illustrates the general pattern: 0.33 for the tests of starch versus maltose, 0.05 for the tests within the starch regime, and -0.01 for the tests within the maltose regime.” Page 1308 gives the origin of the populations, the 1,558 matings, and the definition of the index. ↩ ↩
- 38a.
- 39.
Dodd defines the index as same-type matings minus different-type matings, divided by all matings.38 If the share of same-type matings is h, the index is h − (1 − h) = 2h − 1. An index of 0.33 gives h = (1 + 0.33) ÷ 2 = 0.665, or about two in three. Eleven of her sixteen starch-by-maltose pairings were statistically significant on their own, with indexes from 0.30 to 0.49, and all sixteen were positive. ↩
- 40.
Rice, William R., and Ellen E. Hostert. “Laboratory experiments on speciation: what have we learned in 40 years?” Evolution 47(6):1637–1653. 1993. Read from the publisher's scan. Copyright.
- 40a.
Page 1637: “Strong support is found for the evolution of reproductive isolation via pleiotropy and/or genetic hitchhiking with or without allopatry. Little or no support is found for the bottleneck and reinforcement models of speciation.” ↩
- 40b.
Page 1647: The passage contrasts strong selection on many traits at once, which it says can lead to complete isolation and for which it cites Rice and Salt 1990, with strong selection on one trait, which it says typically leads to incomplete isolation. It is paraphrased here because the scan's text layer misprints its punctuation. Rice and Salt's paper, Evolution 44:1140, was not read. ↩
- 40a.
- 41.
Answers in Genesis. “Arguments we think creationists should NOT use.” Answers in Genesis. n.d. Retrieved Sep 1, 2026. Read from the Internet Archive's copy of 1 January 2007. The page carries no date of its own. Copyright.
- 41a.
Section “No new species have been produced.”: “This is not true—new species have been observed to form. In fact, rapid speciation is an important part of the creation model. But this speciation is within the “kind,” and involves no new genetic information.” ↩
- 41a.
- 42.
Garner, Paul. “Do Species Change?” Answers. Jan 1, 2009. Retrieved Sep 27, 2026. From the issue of January to March 2009. Garner is a British creationist writer and geologist. Copyright.
- 42a.
Section The Bible Was Not the Problem: “To his credit, Darwin corrected a popular misunderstanding. Species do change. Since Darwin’s day, many observations have confirmed this. In fact, new species have even been shown to arise within a single human lifetime.” ↩
- 42a.
- 43.
Ramgren, Jake. “The Case for Rapid Speciation.” New Creation Blog. Jul 23, 2025. Retrieved Aug 15, 2026. The blog is published by Core Academy of Science, a creationist research group. Copyright.
- 43a.
Section Is Microevolution Enough?, paragraph 2: “Creationism requires the origin of species just as much as Darwin did, and most scientists would consider “new species” to be “macroevolution.” Of course, creationists still limit these changes to within created kinds.” ↩
- 43a.
- 44.
Dobzhansky, Theodosius, and Olga Pavlovsky. “Experimentally created incipient species of Drosophila.” Nature 230:289–292. 1971. Only the abstract was read. Stassen's list gives the volume as 23. Copyright.
- 44a.
Section Abstract: “By means of selection in many generations, ethological (sexual) isolation has been built between strains of Drosophila which were formerly not reproductively isolated.” ↩
- 44a.
- 45.
Miller, Wolfgang J. et al. “Infectious speciation revisited: impact of symbiont-depletion on female fitness and mating behavior of Drosophila paulistorum.” PLoS Pathogens 6(12):e1001214. Dec 2, 2010. Open access, CC BY.
- 45a.
Section Abstract: “We have isolated the α-proteobacteria Wolbachia as the maternally transmitted core endosymbionts of all D. paulistorum semispecies that have coevolved towards obligate mutualism with their respective native hosts. In hybrids, however, these mutualists transform into pathogens by overreplication causing embryonic inviability and male sterility.” The paper does not discuss the strain of 1958. That the sterility seen in it had this cause is a possibility raised by this article, and no more. ↩
- 45a.
- 46.
Rodríguez-Trelles, Francisco et al. “Presumptive rapid speciation after a founder event in a laboratory population of Nereis: allozyme electrophoretic evidence does not support the hypothesis.” Evolution 50(1):457–461. 1996. Only the title and citation were read; the paper is behind a paywall and the publisher shows no abstract. The original claim is Weinberg and colleagues, Evolution 46:1214 (1992), as reported by Boxhorn in his section 5.7. ↩
- 47.
Stassen, Chris et al. “Some More Observed Speciation Events.” TalkOrigins Archive. 1997. Retrieved Sep 27, 2026. The page gives its copyright as 1992 to 1997. Copyright.
- 47a.
Section Example three: “Test for speciation in this case is based on morphology. It is unlikely that forced breeding experiments have been performed with the parent stock.” ↩
- 47a.