"This short-cut way of undermining the big bang model could be a huge mistake, for if the universe is expanding, but we reject this, it would be impossible to construct a correct biblical cosmology." — Danny Faulkner, young-earth astronomer, Answers Research Journal, 20181
"They wanted a universe that created itself; their opponents want an eternal, uncreated universe." — Carl Wieland, Creation Ministries International, 20052
Summary
Five articles in this section test the main alternatives to the standard big bang model, each against measurements its own defenders accept. This overview sets their results side by side. It also asks a question the five answer only in part: what does a young-earth cosmology, which rejects the standard model's 13.8-billion-year timescale, gain or lose from each rival?
The verdict: no rival survives as a cosmology, and none of them helps a young universe. Four were tested and failed. The fifth, MOND, is a real success inside single galaxies and a failure at every larger scale. Each rival that drops expansion or a hot early phase describes a universe that is eternal or indefinitely old. The one rival a young-earth astronomer proposed gives the same light-travel time as the standard model unless a separate convention about clocks is added, and its author agrees.
- Tired light is refuted three times over. Fritz Zwicky's 1929 idea, that photons lose energy on a long trip, predicts no stretching of distant events, dimming as (1 + z)−1, and no single blackbody background. Supernova spectra age at 1/(1 + z)b with b = 0.97 ± 0.10.3 Lubin and Sandage exclude its dimming law "at a significance level of better than 10 σ."4 The microwave background is a blackbody to 50 parts per million.5 See Tired Light.
- Lisle's Doppler model rests on one wrong equation. Jason Lisle's static-space model claims that surface brightness falls as (1 + z)−3, which he says matches the measured exponent better than the standard model's 4.6 But the beaming equation behind the 3 contradicts the one printed beside it,6 and Etherington's theorem forces (1 + z)−4 in flat static space too,7 so the claimed advantage disappears. The model then fits 1,371 supernovae far worse than the standard model, and the background temperature and cluster velocities go against it. Lisle agrees it does nothing for the age question: "The Doppler model is not needed to explain distant starlight in a young universe."8 See The Doppler Model of Galaxy Redshifts.
- Halton Arp's discordant redshifts lost on the data. The Hubble Space Telescope found gas from Arp's flagship galaxy absorbing the light of the quasar he said it had ejected, so the quasar lies behind the galaxy.9 A periodicity test set up in advance by a supporter of the claim found "no evidence for a periodicity at the predicted frequency in log(1 + z), or at any other frequency."10 One configuration, NGC 7603, is still unexplained. See Halton Arp and Discordant Redshifts.
- The steady state was killed by its own field, and plasma cosmology never became a cosmology. Radio source counts, quasar redshifts and the microwave background went against the steady state in the 1960s. Its 1993 successor predicted that most bright radio sources should be blueshifted, and none has been seen.11 Hannes Alfvén's matter-antimatter universe is ruled out by the missing annihilation gamma rays.12 See Steady State and Plasma Cosmology.
- MOND is a successful theory of galaxies and not a cosmology. Mordehai Milgrom's modified force law predicted galaxy rotation from visible matter alone, before the data could test it.13 It fails on galaxy clusters, the Bullet Cluster and the third acoustic peak of the microwave background. The one relativistic version that fits the background contains a field that behaves like dark matter.14 See MOND and Modified Gravity.
- A few measurements do most of the work. The (1 + z) stretching of distant events, the blackbody spectrum of the microwave background, and its temperature rising as (1 + z) at high redshift are decisive tests in four of the five articles. The background temperature alone rules out tired light, a static bath for the Doppler model, and plasma cosmology's local background.15
- For a young-earth reader every rival is a loss. None shortens the travel time of starlight, because distances come from the distance ladder rather than from cosmology. The steady state, its successor and plasma cosmology have no beginning, and Fred Hoyle named "aesthetic objections to the creation of the universe in the remote past" among his reasons.16 Rejecting expansion also means rejecting general relativity, as Danny Faulkner warns his own side,1 and most young-earth answers to distant starlight are built on relativity.
- What survives is narrower, and more useful. Real anomalies remain: the sizes and surface brightness of distant galaxies seen by the James Webb Space Telescope, the galaxy-scale regularity MOND predicted and dark matter does not derive, the disputed wide-binary test of gravity, and NGC 7603. None of them is a cosmology, and none gives a young universe. The best lesson here for apologists is one of method. Bill Napier, a supporter of quantised redshifts, set up the test that failed his claim, and John Hartnett, a young-earth physicist, traced his own Sloan periodicity to a selection effect and published that result.1017
Part 1: The rivals side by side
The table puts each rival's own claim next to the measurements that decided it. The numbers are the children's, carried over as they printed them.
| Rival | Its claim, in its proponents' words | Decisive observations | How it fares | The child's verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tired light, Zwicky 1929 | "During this process, the light quantum will change its energy and, therefore, its frequency."18 | Supernova spectra age with b = 0.97 ± 0.10, where tired light needs 0, and the no-dilation fit gives χ² = 150.3 for 35 degrees of freedom.3 Surface brightness excludes it at better than 10σ.4 The background is a blackbody to 50 parts per million,5 and its temperature scales with an exponent of 1.007 ± 0.027 where tired light needs 0.15 | Fails every test but two. Gamma-ray burst durations are inconclusive, and JWST galaxy angular sizes arguably fit a static curve | Refuted, by three independent classes of measurement |
| The Doppler model, Lisle 2024 | "The Doppler model therefore passes the Tolman test while the standard ΛCDM model and the tired light model do not."6 | Etherington's theorem gives the same (1 + z)−4 dimming in static space.7 On 1,371 supernovae, Δχ² = 126 against the standard model as published and 1,785 with the theorem enforced.1920 A cluster the model puts at 123,000 km/s moves at +3,450 ± 900 km/s relative to the background.21 | Its headline result rests on an equation error. The raw JWST size anomaly it points to is real | Right that the raw data are strange, right that galaxy evolution is used as an escape hatch, wrong on the physics its central claim needs |
| Arp's discordant redshifts | "Evidence that compact objects with intrinsic, non-velocity redshifts are ejected from galaxies has been presented elsewhere."22 | Mg II absorption from NGC 4319 in its quasar's spectrum at 1265 ± 55 km/s.9 No periodicity in 1,647 quasar-galaxy pairs.10 The quasar excess near galaxies is cosmic magnification, detected at 8σ.23 | Flagship case closed, periodicity null. NGC 7603 stays open at a corrected chance probability near 10−524 | Arp was treated badly, and he was wrong anyway |
| Steady state, Bondi, Gold and Hoyle 1948, and its 1993 successor | "The universe is postulated to be homogeneous and stationary in its large-scale appearance as well as in its physical laws."25 | Faint radio sources at least 3 ± 0.5 times the predicted number.26 Quasars at z = 1 at 150 and 80 times the local density.27 The successor predicts over 75% blueshifts at the peak of the radio counts, and none is seen.11 | Dead by measurement within seventeen years. Its successor survives only by re-choosing parameters, which removes its difference from the big bang | A good theory that its own field killed with measurements |
| Plasma cosmology, Alfvén and Lerner | "The CBR must therefore originate locally, if radio absorption is strong."28 | No annihilation gamma rays from matter-antimatter boundaries.12 A local background needs a temperature exponent of 0, and the measured one is 1.007 ± 0.027.15 | Never predicted the light elements, the background spectrum or the acoustic peaks. Its plasma physics is sound in its own field | Not a cosmology |
| MOND, Milgrom 1983 | "Rotation curves calculated on the basis of the observed mass distribution and the modified dynamics should agree with the observed velocity curves."13 | Wins: zero-parameter Tully-Fisher fit at χ² = 44.3 for 46 degrees of freedom,29 and Crater II predicted near 2 km/s and measured at 2.7.3031 Fails: clusters still short by about a factor of two,29 and the Bullet Cluster's mass sits 8σ from its gas.32 | Wins wherever the test is a galaxy, loses wherever it is bigger or earlier than a galaxy. Wide binaries are unresolved | A successful theory of galaxies and not a cosmology |
Two things stand out. First, every rival fails as an account of the universe as a whole, and the failures come from different measurements. No single disputed result carries the verdict. Second, the rivals that came closest to working are the ones that kept the most of the standard picture. MOND keeps expansion and a hot early universe and fails only where it removes dark matter. The Doppler model keeps special relativity and fails where it drops expansion. Tired light keeps nothing and fails everywhere.
Part 2: Tired light
Tired light is the cleanest failure in the section, and its inventor saw the first objection himself. Any scattering that drains energy from a photon also deflects it, and Zwicky wrote that such an explanation "will be in a hopeless position regarding the good definition of the images."18 His own gravitational mechanism he could not derive, and he asked only that "a further elaboration of the theory seems to be worthwhile."18 The decisive test needs no mechanism. Draining energy from photons one at a time cannot change how often they arrive, so tired light predicts that distant supernovae rise and fade on their own local schedule, and they do not. Its best modern advocates, the Saint Petersburg group publishing static-universe analyses of JWST data, concede the point in print: "the static cosmological model with photon-energy dissipation predicts no time dilation," and the observed effect "strongly supports the expanding-Universe models or the static-Universe models of the Einstein-de-Sitter type."33 See Tired Light.
Part 3: The Doppler model
Lisle's model is the only rival here proposed by a young-earth astronomer, and the exchange over it in Answers Research Journal is an argument among Christians. Luke Barnes, a Christian astrophysicist who is not a young-earth creationist, replied that the model "is physically indistinguishable from an expanding space model. It is a mere redescription."34 The Doppler child goes further than either author. Lisle's two beaming equations disagree with each other, the corrected model predicts the standard (1 + z)−4 dimming, and the corrected model is then excluded by supernovae. The child also finds Lisle right on two points: the turnaround in galaxy angular sizes that the standard model expects is not seen in raw data, and galaxy evolution is used as an adjustable escape. On the age question the model changes nothing. In Lisle's own equations the most distant confirmed galaxy, MoM-z14 at z = 14.44, sits 13.85 billion light years away, so under ordinary clock synchrony its light has travelled for 13.85 billion years.35 See The Doppler Model of Galaxy Redshifts.
Part 4: Halton Arp and discordant redshifts
Arp was a first-rate observer, and the child states his claim at its narrowest. Most redshifts measure distance, and a class of compact objects carries "intrinsic, non-velocity redshifts."22 He did not deny expansion. Danny Faulkner, writing to young-earth creationists, says that Arp and his colleagues "never doubted that the universe was expanding" and "clung to the steady state model long after nearly everyone else had abandoned it."1 The case failed on three fronts. The flagship pair was resolved by absorption, the periodicity failed a test specified in advance, and lensing, resolved host galaxies and the Lyman-alpha forest each place quasars at their redshift distance. Arp was also refused telescope time for this work, which the child calls a bad way to settle a scientific question.1 See Halton Arp and Discordant Redshifts.
Part 5: The steady state and plasma cosmology
The steady state forbade a young epoch and an old one, so it was easy to test, and it lost. Bondi and Gold's continuous creation needed "one new atom of hydrogen per cubic metre per 3 × 105 years,"25 far too little to catch in a laboratory, so the tests had to be astronomical. The first radio result against it was wrong. A rival group in Sydney showed that the Cambridge catalogue failed at the level where the two surveys stopped agreeing,36 and the corrected counts still went against the theory. The quasi-steady-state successor survives Edward Wright's blueshift test only by re-choosing its parameters, and its authors conceded as much: "Suitable choices can and do make the theory compatible with the observations."37 Plasma cosmology brings real plasma physics, and Alfvén's complaint that cosmic plasma physics was "to some extent the playground of theoreticians who have never seen a plasma in a laboratory" was largely right in his own field.38 But it never produced a quantitative account of the light elements, the background spectrum or the acoustic peaks, and its one sharp prediction, a local microwave background, fails the temperature test. See Steady State and Plasma Cosmology.
Part 6: MOND
MOND is the strongest rival in the section and the only one with a list of confirmed predictions. Milgrom listed them in 1983, and the zero-parameter Tully-Fisher fit, the radial acceleration relation followed by "2693 points in 153 galaxies," and the low velocity dispersion of Crater II all came out his way.39 It fails at every scale larger or earlier than a galaxy. Rich clusters still need about twice their visible mass, which Stacy McGaugh, MOND's most active defender, calls "very disturbing."29 The relativistic theory that fits the microwave background does so because its scalar field undergoes "dustlike evolution," which means it acts like cold dark matter in cosmology.14 Whether the acceleration scale is the same in every galaxy, and whether wide binary stars feel it, are both disputed, with high claimed significance on both sides. See MOND and Modified Gravity.
Part 7: The measurements that do the work
Read together, the five children lean on the same handful of measurements. That is a finding of the section as a whole, and it matters, because it means the verdicts are not five separate judgement calls.
| Measurement | Result | What it rules out | What it cannot decide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time dilation of distant events | Supernova spectra age with b = 0.97 ± 0.10.3 Quasar variability shows the same stretching in 190 quasars,40 with n = 1.14 ± 0.3441 | Tired light, and any mechanism that drains photons one at a time. For two decades the missing quasar signal was a fair argument for Arp; it is now measured | Motion through static space from expansion, since both predict (1 + z) |
| Surface-brightness dimming, the Tolman test | Raw exponents of 2.59 ± 0.17 and 3.37 ± 0.13 in two bands,4 consistent with 4 once the expected brightening of younger galaxies is allowed for4 | Tired light, which predicts 1, at better than 10σ4 | Doppler motion from expansion, because (1 + z)−4 is a theorem in any spacetime that conserves photons7 |
| Spectrum of the microwave background | Blackbody to 50 parts per million5 | Any background summed from sources at many distances: tired light's static universe, the steady state's thermalised starlight, plasma cosmology's local origin | Whether the hot phase was 13.8 billion years ago |
| Background temperature at high redshift | T(z) = (2.725 ± 0.002) × (1 + z)(1−β) with β = −0.007 ± 0.02715 | Tired light and a local plasma background, which need the exponent to be 0. A static bath for the Doppler model, which would show a moving gas cloud a strong dipole rather than a blackbody | The cause of expansion |
| Cluster motion against the background | MACS J0717.5+3745 moves at +3,450 ± 900 km/s21 | The Doppler model, which puts that cluster at 123,000 km/s through a fixed background | Anything about the standard model's age |
| Gravitational lensing | Twin quasar images with identical spectra;42 the Bullet Cluster's mass 8σ away from its gas32 | Quasars in front of their galaxies; a force law tied to visible matter alone | Whether some of the unseen mass is ordinary matter |
Two lessons follow. First, the Tolman test is weaker than its reputation. It kills tired light, but it cannot tell galaxies flying through static space from galaxies carried by expanding space, and both the tired-light and Doppler children say so. Lisle read the averaged raw exponent near 3 as support for his model, but a geometric exponent cannot change with the colour of the light, and the gap between the two bands is the mark of the galaxies' own evolution. Second, the background temperature measured through distant gas clouds is the most economical test in the section. One fit rules out three rivals. It also bears on young-earth cosmology directly. Whatever model a reader prefers, the radiation was hotter in the past, in proportion to 1 + z, which is what an expanding universe requires.
Part 8: What young-earth cosmology gains or loses
Young-earth cosmologies reject the standard model's timescale, so each rival has some appeal to them. The children price that appeal one rival at a time. Set side by side, the result is plain.
| Rival | Age of the universe it implies | What it does for distant starlight | What a young-earth writer takes on by citing it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tired light | Eternal or indefinitely old: a static universe with no cosmic clock | Nothing | A model excluded at better than 10σ, and a rejection of expansion that Faulkner calls a rejection of general relativity1 |
| The Doppler model | In Lisle's own equations, light from MoM-z14 has travelled 13.85 billion years under ordinary synchrony, against 1/H0 = 13.97 billion years at H0 = 70 | Nothing by itself. The young age comes from Lisle's synchrony convention, which "is compatible with either the FLRW metric or the Doppler model"8 | A model with an equation error and no stated metric, which Lisle concedes "cannot be Minkowski"8 |
| Arp's discordant redshifts | Arp's steady-state universe has no beginning | Nothing, because the distance ladder does not run through quasars | An eternal-universe ally, and the galactocentric reading of quantised redshifts, which Faulkner calls an "inherent contradiction" for anyone who also rejects cosmological redshifts1 |
| The steady state and its successor | No beginning, by design16 | Nothing | An argument built to remove creation from cosmology |
| Plasma cosmology | No beginning | Nothing | A programme with no account of the light elements or the background spectrum |
| MOND | Neutral. It changes no clock and no distance | Nothing | Little. But MOND's own working cosmology has added unseen matter, an 11 eV sterile neutrino,43 so the charge of inventing unseen matter to save a model applies to MOND too |
Every row of the middle columns says the same thing. No rival shortens the travel time of starlight, because distances come from parallax, standard candles and geometry, not from a cosmological model. The Arp child puts it in one line: had Arp been right in every particular, the universe would not be younger or smaller by one light year. The steady-state child says the same of the big bang itself. The cosmic distance ladder works through the measurements.
On the question of a beginning, the standard model is closer to Genesis than its rivals are. The steady state was attractive to Hoyle partly because of "aesthetic objections to the creation of the universe in the remote past."16 Plasma cosmology and tired light have no beginning either. None of this shows that the standard model is right. It is a reason to be careful about which side to borrow from, and Carl Wieland said it for Creation Ministries International in 2005: the big bang's developers "wanted a universe that created itself; their opponents want an eternal, uncreated universe."2
The young-earth astronomers who know this literature best have already said so. Faulkner accepts expansion and warns that rejecting it "could be a huge mistake."1 Hartnett traced the Sloan periodicity to a selection effect. Lisle concedes that his Doppler model does nothing for distant starlight. Most of the young-earth answers to starlight collected under Young-Universe Cosmologies are built on relativity: Humphreys' white hole through gravitational time dilation, Hartnett's model through Carmeli's relativity, and Lisle's synchrony convention and the Dennis and Tenev coordinate models through the freedom relativity allows in setting clocks. Each of those needs the general relativity that, in Faulkner's words, a rejection of expansion gives up.
The one young-earth model that reached into MOND's territory found the same regularity and a different number. Hartnett's Carmelian cosmology produced a minimum acceleration, a0 = c/τ, and derived the Tully-Fisher relation from it. His value of (2/3)a0 is about 5.2 × 10−10 m s−2,44 about four times the measured 1.20 × 10−10 m s−2,39 which Hartnett called "slightly different."44 He later withdrew the model; see Hartnett's Carmelian Cosmology. So the MOND child is right that no young-earth cosmology uses MOND, but this is the nearest point of contact, and it failed on the one number that could be checked.
What a young-earth reader can honestly use is narrower. The JWST anomaly in galaxy sizes and surface brightness is real and is reported by people with no stake in Genesis, but if it holds it is a problem for every metric cosmology, Lisle's included, because the dimming law is a theorem. MOND's galaxy-scale success is a fair caution against treating an inference from motion to unseen matter as settled, and the same evidence shows the field testing its own inference in public. The steady state's history is the best evidence available that cosmology is not rigged: a well-funded rival got a fair hearing, made predictions, and lost on data.
The bill the rivals failed to pay is the bill any cosmology owes, a young one included. The tired-light child lists it: a 50-parts-per-million blackbody, a background temperature that scales with 1 + z, supernovae and quasars that run slow by 1 + z, the light-element abundances, and the growth of structure. The section's own microwave background article finds that no creationist model explains the background's power spectrum. A young-earth cosmology gains nothing by pointing at rivals that could not pay this bill; it has to pay the same one.
Part 9: Where the children differ
The five children agree on every verdict. They differ in two places, and both are settled here.
What Lisle conceded. The Doppler child quotes Barnes's sentence that in both models "the finite speed of light will make the universe appear to be billions of years old,"34 then gives Lisle's "Quite right" as agreement with it. The tired-light child says Lisle's reply answers a different remark, about the synchrony convention. The papers settle it. In Barnes's reply the two remarks are consecutive sentences of one paragraph on page 788.34 Lisle quoted the second, with "[the distant starlight problem]" inserted, and answered "Quite right."8 So the tired-light child's wording is the exact one, and the Doppler child's reading is fair, since the passage Lisle accepted is about the starlight problem. What Lisle conceded is that the Doppler model is not what makes the universe young. He did not concede that the universe is old.
Whether any young-earth model uses MOND. The MOND child says none does, and that is true. But Hartnett's Carmelian cosmology, treated under a different hub, derived a MOND-like minimum acceleration from its own constants and missed the measured value by about a factor of four, as Part 8 sets out. The MOND child's statement is accurate, and this overview adds the nearest case.
Objections and responses
"The big bang has so many rivals that it must be in trouble." The number of rivals is not evidence; the measurements are. The steady-state child offers a three-question test for any claim that a theory is contested: who contests it and where, what measurement would settle it, and whether that measurement has been made. For four of the five rivals here the measurements have been made, and they went against the rival. For MOND the galaxy-scale measurements went its way, which is why it is still argued in the main journals, and the larger-scale ones did not.
"The rivals were suppressed, not refuted." Part of this is true, and the children say so. Arp was refused telescope time,1 and Sean Carroll conceded in 2004 that "young people who disbelieve in the Big Bang are unlikely to get invited to speak at major conferences, or get permanent jobs at research universities."45 But the decisive results came from people with reasons to want a different answer. Napier set up the test that failed his periodicity. Hartnett published the selection effect behind his own signal. The quasi-steady-state authors conceded their model fits only by re-choosing parameters. The static-universe group in Part 2 concedes the time-dilation result.
"If every rival fails, the big bang is proved." No. Killing tired light leaves two survivors, expansion and motion through static space, which predict the same dimming and the same time dilation. A hot start 13.8 billion years ago is a further claim with its own evidence, treated in The Big Bang. And this section leaves real problems with the standard model standing: the galaxy regularity MOND predicted, the undetected dark matter particle, and the JWST size anomaly.
"Standard cosmology invents dark matter and dark energy to save itself; the rivals do not." They do. MOND's working cosmology adds an 11 eV sterile neutrino,43 its cluster fix adds unseen ordinary matter, and its best relativistic theory adds a field that behaves like dust. Tired light needs an interaction nobody has seen. The Doppler model has no account of rotation curves, lensing or the accelerating expansion. The useful question is whether the added thing made predictions that were then checked. The MOND child finds that cold dark matter's did, and that MOND's neutrino's have not yet.
"A young-earth model does not need a rival to be right. It only needs the big bang to be wrong." Then the rivals give no help, and citing them costs credibility. The deeper problem is that the big bang being wrong would not shorten one light year of distance. The starlight problem belongs to the distances, and the distances come from the ladder.
"These articles are stacked against creationists." The sharpest criticisms in the section come from creationists. Faulkner warns his own side off rejecting expansion and off recruiting Arp. Hartnett published the selection effect that sank the best quantisation evidence. Barnes's reply to Lisle ran in Answers in Genesis's own journal, and Lisle thanked him for it: "I sincerely wish to thank Luke Barnes for his interest and his constructive criticism."8 The Doppler child also finds two points on which Lisle is right.
"JWST has shown that the universe is static." The JWST anomalies are real and unresolved, and the children report them. But the authors who press them hardest concede that a tired-light static model "predicts no time dilation"33 and that the expanding-universe model "is strongly supported by other observational evidence."33 The 2026 surface-brightness preprint reports "a significant departure from the prediction of the standard cosmological model."46 If that survives review, it is a problem for every metric cosmology, Lisle's included, because the (1 + z)−4 law is a theorem.
Issues and unanswered questions
- The JWST galaxy-size and surface-brightness anomaly is open. Three children report it. Eric Lerner's 2018 paper argues that galaxy radii "are incompatible with any of the published size-evolution predictions based on an expanding universe,"47 and it has been answered only piecemeal, in the size-evolution literature, not in a reply. The 2026 Tolman preprint is not yet reviewed. A forward-modelled comparison of sizes and masses that includes the JWST selection function would settle it. If the departure is real, it hurts every metric cosmology, and no rival in this section has a worked account of it.
- MOND's two live tests are unresolved. On wide binary stars, Marco Cirelli, Alessandro Strumia and Jure Zupan call the situation "confusing": one group excludes MOND at up to 19σ and another claims a MOND signal at up to 10σ, and "the main issue is that some wide binaries involve a third unseen object."48 Whether the acceleration scale is the same in every galaxy is rejected at more than 5σ by one group49 and found constant by another. Gaia's fourth data release should help with both. No calculation of the Bullet Cluster in MOND's leading relativistic theory was read.
- NGC 7603 is unexplained. Its case rests on whether a faint filament is physically real. A modern deep image measuring the filament's surface brightness across the two faint objects would settle it.
- The nearby-galaxy periodicity near 37.5 km/s has never been tested on the data that could settle it. The ALFALFA survey holds about 31,500 hydrogen-line redshifts at the needed precision, and no periodicity analysis of it has been found.
- The Doppler model names no metric. Lisle concedes the real metric "cannot be Minkowski" and offers no replacement,8 so the model cannot be tested against lensing, the acoustic scale in galaxy clustering, or the microwave background's peaks. The child's supernova fits use diagonal errors only, which it says overstates the significance somewhat.
- Some sources the children cite could not be obtained. Narlikar and Padmanabhan's 2001 review is quoted through the historian Helge Kragh.50 Arp's two books on his treatment, Fulton and Arp's 2012 claim of a correlation above 50σ, the 2020 paper that preceded the 2024 periodicity revival, and Alfvén and Klein's 1962 matter-antimatter paper were not read. None of the verdicts rests on them.
Verdict
None of the five rivals survives as a cosmology. Tired light, the steady state and its successor, plasma cosmology and Arp's intrinsic redshifts each made predictions that were measured and failed, and in several cases the deciding test was set up or conceded by the rival's own supporters. Lisle's Doppler model fails on an equation error and then on supernova, background-temperature and cluster-velocity tests. MOND survives as a description of galaxies, with predictions to its credit that the standard model does not derive from first principles, and fails as a description of the universe.
For a young-earth cosmology the section is a list of losses. No rival shortens the travel time of starlight, because distances do not come from cosmology. Most rivals describe an eternal universe, and the steady state was built partly to avoid a beginning. Rejecting expansion means rejecting the general relativity on which most young-earth answers to starlight depend. What a young-earth reader can take from the section is a short list of real anomalies, none of which yields a young universe, and a model of how to handle a contested claim: state the test in advance, let someone without a stake run it, and publish what comes back, as Napier and Hartnett did.
Sources
- 1.
Faulkner, Danny R. “The Case for Cosmological Redshifts.” Answers Research Journal 11:31–47. 2018. A 2018 journal article by Danny R. Faulkner arguing that the redshifts of galaxies and quasars are cosmological, that is, caused by the expansion of the universe. The article cites it for three points: that Halton Arp accepted an expanding universe, that his probability argument asked the question the wrong way round, and that the directors of the Palomar and NOAO observatories cut off his telescope time.
- 1a.
Page 46: “Rejection of universal expansion seems to be motivated by opposition to the big bang model. If the universe is not expanding, then the big bang model is not viable. However, the big bang is just one possible expanding universe cosmology. This short-cut way of undermining the big bang model could be a huge mistake, for if the universe is expanding, but we reject this, it would be impossible to construct a correct biblical cosmology.” Section Abstract: The abstract's own summary is milder: “Rejection of cosmological redshifts could stifle development of a true biblical cosmology.” ↩ ↩
- 1b.
Page 46: Faulkner says that rejecting cosmological redshifts. “amounts to a rejection of general relativity, one of the most successfully tested theories in the history of science. If the universe is expanding, then it follows that the redshifts of extragalactic objects, including quasars, are cosmological.” ↩ ↩
- 1c.
Page 44: “Furthermore, contrary to common misconception among recent creationists, Arp and other astronomers who questioned whether quasars had cosmological redshifts never doubted that the universe was expanding. Indeed, Arp and his colleagues clung to the steady state model long after nearly everyone else had abandoned it. The steady state model is not possible if the universe is not expanding, so it would have made no sense for Arp and his colleagues to have doubted universal expansion.” ↩
- 1d.
Page 37: “This led to the directors of the Palomar Observatory and National Optical Astronomy Observatory collectively informing Arp that he no longer would be granted telescope time at either institution to pursue this work. Arp was free to pursue other types of research, but not the type of work he had dedicated his life to.” ↩ ↩
- 1e.
Page 37: “Consequently, some recent creationists express doubts about reality of the Hubble relation and cosmological redshifts while simultaneously embracing the galactocentric implications of quantized redshifts without realizing the inherent contradiction of these two positions.” ↩
- 1a.
- 2.
Wieland, Carl. “Secular scientists blast the big bang: What now for naïve apologetics?” Creation 27(2):23–25. Mar 2005. A 2005 article in Creation magazine by Carl Wieland of Creation Ministries International, a creationist ministry, and posted on its website on 2 February 2006. It answers a 2004 open letter from 33 scientists who doubted the big bang. The article uses it as the creationist reply to that letter, which it says is still in circulation.
- 2a.
“Those who developed the big bang were guided by secular worldview filters just as much as those who are now crying that the emperor has no clothes. They wanted a universe that created itself; their opponents want an eternal, uncreated universe. From a Christian perspective, both are in open defiance of their Creator's account of what really happened.” Wieland writes "33 leading scientists" and "the 33 dissidents"; the list carries 34 names. ↩ ↩
- 2a.
- 3.
Blondin, S. et al. “Time Dilation in Type Ia Supernova Spectra at High Redshift.” Astrophysical Journal 682:724–736. 2008. A paper by 32 authors that measured how fast 13 high-redshift Type Ia supernovae appear to age, using 35 spectra. Its abstract says the results confirm the expansion hypothesis and unambiguously exclude models that predict no time dilation, such as Zwicky's tired light hypothesis. The article uses its Table 4 numbers for the full sample to show how badly tired light fits the data. Mirror: arXiv
- 3a.
Section §5 (Conclusion), table 4: The sample is. “35 spectra of 13 high-redshift (0.28 ≤ z ≤ 0.62) SNe Ia.” Fitting an aging rate of 1/(1 + z)b gives. “b = 0.97 ± 0.10 for the entire sample”. “b = 0.95 ± 0.10 for the high-redshift sample.” Table 4 gives, for all supernovae: the 1/(1 + z) model has χ²/dof = 27.0/35 and goodness of fit 83.2 percent, and the tired light model has χ²/dof = 150.3/35 and goodness of fit 0.0 percent. Section §4: “the hypothesis of no time dilation is not a good fit to the data (χ² = 150.3 for 35 degrees of freedom).” ↩ ↩ ↩
- 3a.
- 4.
Lubin, Lori M., and Allan Sandage. “The Tolman Surface Brightness Test for the Reality of the Expansion. IV. A Measurement of the Tolman Signal and the Luminosity Evolution of Early-Type Galaxies.” Astronomical Journal 122(3):1084–1103. 2001. Paper IV of the Tolman surface-brightness series. It measures the test on Hubble Space Telescope images of 34 early-type galaxies in three clusters at redshifts 0.76, 0.90 and 0.92, and it also tests tired light with the same data. The authors conclude that the test is consistent with the reality of the expansion once the brightening of ageing stars (luminosity evolution) is allowed for. The article uses the paper for its measured exponent and for its 10 σ test of tired light. Mirror: arXiv
- 4a.
Section Abstract: “We have also used the high-redshift HST data to test the 'tired light' speculation for a non-expansion model for the redshift. The HST data rule out the 'tired light' model at a significance level of better than 10 σ.” ↩ ↩ ↩
- 4b.
Section Abstract: “Expressed as the exponent, n, in 2.5 log (1 + z)n mag, the value of n for all three clusters is n = 2.59 ± 0.17 in the R band and 3.37 ± 0.13 in the I band for a qo = 1/2 model.” ↩
- 4c.
Section Abstract: “For a true Tolman signal with n = 4, the luminosity evolution in the look-back time… must then be between 1.72 to 1.19 in the R band and 0.94 to 0.45 in the I band. We show that this is precisely the range expected from the evolutionary models of Bruzual & Charlot.” ↩
- 4a.
- 5.
Fixsen, D. J. et al. “The Cosmic Microwave Background Spectrum from the Full COBE FIRAS Data Set.” Astrophysical Journal 473:576–587. 1996. A reanalysis of the low-frequency data from the FIRAS instrument on NASA's COBE satellite, taken over its ten-month mission, except for the first month. FIRAS compares the sky with a precise blackbody spectrum, and the paper gives new, tighter limits on any departure from one. The article uses its result as a decisive test of the background's spectrum. Mirror: arXiv
- 5a.
Section Abstract: “The FIRAS measures the difference between the cosmic microwave background and a precise blackbody spectrum. We find new tighter upper limits on general deviations from a blackbody spectrum. The RMS deviations are less than 50 parts per million of the peak of the CMBR. For the Comptonization and chemical potential we find |y| < 15 × 10−6 and |µ| < 9 × 10−5 (95% CL). There are also refinements in the absolute temperature, 2.728 ± 0.004 K (95% CL).” ↩ ↩ ↩
- 5a.
- 6.
Lisle, Jason. “Sizes of Galaxies in JWST Data Suggest New Cosmology.” Answers Research Journal 17:445–457. 2024. A paper by the young-earth creationist Jason Lisle in a journal of Answers in Genesis. It takes the apparent sizes of galaxies in JWST deep-field images and tests them against a model in which galaxies recede through space that does not expand, so that redshift is a Doppler shift. It reports that the data fit that model and fail the standard expanding-universe model, and the article uses it as the creationist case that the new JWST data favour the Doppler model; the three-paper exchange starts here.
- 6a.
Page 454: “The average of these two exponents is 2.98 ± 0.55, consistent with the Doppler model prediction of 3, but well below the standard model's prediction of 4.” ↩
- 6b.
Page 449: Equation (11): “LR = [(1 − v/c)/(1 + v/c)]3”. and equation (12): “LR = 1/(z + 1)3”. For a relativistic Doppler shift, (1 − v/c)/(1 + v/c) = (1 + z)−2 exactly, so the cube of equation (11) is (1 + z)−6, not (1 + z)−3. Equation (13), the luminosity distance DD(1 + z)1.5, follows from equation (12). ↩
- 6c.
Page 454: “The Doppler model therefore passes the Tolman test while the standard ΛCDM model and the tired light model do not.” ↩
- 6a.
- 7.
Holanda, R. F. L. et al. “Testing the Distance-Duality Relation with Galaxy Clusters and Type Ia Supernovae.” Astrophysical Journal Letters 722:L233–L237. 2010. A letter that tests the distance-duality relation, the rule linking two ways of measuring distance, with Type Ia supernovae matched to galaxy clusters. For the spherical-cluster sample it finds a departure of η0 = −0.42 at 3σ, which the authors call clearly incompatible with the relation. The article uses the paper for its statement that the relation holds for every cosmology built on Riemannian geometry, whatever the matter in it. Mirror: arXiv
- 7a.
Section §1: Stated immediately after the equation DL(1 + z)−2/DA = 1. “This equation is completely general, valid for all cosmological models based on Riemannian geometry, being dependent neither on Einstein field equations nor the nature of matter-energy content. It only requires that source and observer are connected by null geodesics in a Riemannian spacetime and that the number of photons are conserved. Therefore, it is valid for spatially homogeneous and isotropic (anisotropic) cosmologies, as well as for inhomogeneous cosmological models.” Other articles have credited this sentence to Renzi, Hogg and Giarè 2022, but it is not in that paper. It is Holanda, Lima and Ribeiro's, and it should be cited to them. ↩ ↩ ↩
- 7a.
- 8.
Lisle, Jason. “Sizes of Galaxies in JWST Data and Cosmology — Reply to Barnes.” Answers Research Journal 18:441–447. 2025. Lisle's answer to Barnes's reply, in the same journal. He says he reproduced Barnes's SAGE result with the same simulation and parameters, and that the model Barnes defended was already disproved years ago by galaxy mass and luminosity data from JWST deep fields. The article uses it for Lisle's claim that the Doppler model is currently the only model that passes the Tolman test, which checks how fast the surface brightness of distant galaxies fades with distance, and for his concession that the Doppler model is not needed to explain distant starlight.
- 8a.
Page 446: “Quite right. The Doppler model is not needed to explain distant starlight in a young universe. Rather, it was invoked to explain the angular size and luminosity data in JWST deep fields.” ↩
- 8b.
Page 447: “And since the ASC model doesn't assume any particular metric, it is compatible with either the FLRW metric or the Doppler model.” ↩
- 8c.
Page 442: “Of course, the actual metric of the universe cannot be Minkowski because this metric applies to space with negligible mass. But it is an example of a non-expanding metric in contrast to the FLRW metric.” ↩ ↩
- 8d.
Page 446: “Barnes is correct when he states, “Lisle proposes to solve this [the distant starlight problem] with the Anisotropic synchrony convention, which implies that we see galaxies as they are now, regardless of how far away they are. This gives the model enough freedom that any observed population of galaxies is consistent with a young universe” (Barnes 2024). Quite right.” ↩
- 8e.
Page 447: “Very few advocates of the big bang are willing to read and interact with creation technical literature. And so, I sincerely wish to thank Luke Barnes for his interest and his constructive criticism.” ↩
- 8a.
- 9.
Bahcall, John N. et al. “The Near-Ultraviolet Spectrum of Markarian 205.” The Astrophysical Journal 398(2):495–500. Oct 20, 1992. A near-ultraviolet spectrum of the quasar Markarian 205, taken with the Hubble Space Telescope at a resolution of R = 1300. It found 15 absorption lines, the dark lines where gas has taken light out of the spectrum, and two of them, a pair of magnesium lines called the Mg II doublet, come from gas in the galaxy NGC 4319. The article uses it as the test of Arp's flagship case, because gas in the galaxy absorbing the quasar's light shows that the light passes through the galaxy.
- 9a.
Section §6, page 498: “Our best estimate for the heliocentric velocity of the Mg II absorption feature associated with NGC 4319 is”. The displayed equation (2a) gives this as ⟨cz⟩I⟩heliocentric~ = 1265 ± 55 km s−1. The paper gives NGC 4319's own heliocentric velocity as "about 1405 km s−1 or z = 0.00468" (§1, p. 495), citing Bowen et al. 1991 and Sulentic & Arp 1987a. ↩ ↩
- 9a.
- 10.
Hawkins, E. et al. “No Periodicities in 2dF Redshift Survey Data.” Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 336:L13. 2002. A 2002 test of a claimed repeating pattern in quasar redshifts (quasars are very bright, distant objects), run on 1,647 quasar-galaxy pairs from the 2dF galaxy and quasar surveys, almost eight times the sample of the earlier positive result. William Napier, who had briefed the authors on the claim, set the test and took no part in the analysis, and it found no periodicity at the predicted frequency. The article uses it as one of the two failed tests of the periodicity prediction. Mirror: arXiv
- 10a.
Section Abstract: “These data provide by far the largest and most homogeneous sample for such a study, yielding 1647 QSO-galaxy pairs. There is no evidence for a periodicity at the predicted frequency in log(1 + z), or at any other frequency.” ↩ ↩
- 10b.
Section Acknowledgements: “We are most grateful to Bill Napier for suggesting that we undertake this study, and for setting up such a fair test of this hypothesis.” ↩
- 10a.
- 11.
Wright, Edward L. Comments on the Quasi-Steady-State Cosmology. Oct 20, 1994. A UCLA preprint (UCLA-ASTRO-ELW-94-04) by Edward L. Wright, never published in a journal, which tests the quasi-steady-state cosmology of Hoyle, Burbidge and Narlikar against the cosmic microwave background and against radio source counts. Wright had been the referee who recommended against one of the QSSC papers, which Hoyle, Burbidge and Narlikar say in their reply; Wright himself writes that the failure "was fully explained to both HBN and to the editor of MNRAS in a referee's report dated July 1993… but HBN proceeded to publish incorrect results." He was a COBE co-investigator and a co-author of the FIRAS spectrum paper, and the article uses the preprint to show that the model predicts blueshifts among bright radio sources that are not observed.
- 11a.
Section §4, Blueshifts, page 6: “Note that the blueshifted fraction jumps to more than 90% for the brightest sources that show a steeper than Euclidean source count. Thus the 3CR sample, which has source counts that are significantly steeper than Euclidean, should be dominated by blueshifts if the QSSC were correct. While it is possible to have no blueshifts in the 3CR flux range by a suitable choice of the luminosity function, one then predicts source counts that are substantially less steep than Euclidean, producing a > 3σ discrepancy in source count slopes between the model and the data. At the peak of N F1.5, the blueshifted fraction predicted by the QSSC is > 75%. The 1 Jy sample of Allington-Smith et al. (1988) is at the peak of N F1.5, has a secure redshift completeness > 80% … and no blueshifts. Since one can not fit a > 75% blueshifted fraction into a < 20% unidentified fraction, the QSSC prediction is false.” ↩ ↩
- 11a.
- 12.
Cohen, A. G. et al. “A Matter-Antimatter Universe?” ApJ 495:539–549. 1998. A theory paper asking whether the universe could be a patchwork of regions of matter and regions of antimatter, and estimating the gamma rays given off where the two meet. It finds that such a patchwork would produce a gamma-ray signal above the observational limits unless the matter region is virtually the entire visible universe. Its authors state their own limit: small, distant pockets of antimatter cannot be ruled out. The article uses it to show that Alfvén's cosmology, which needed equal parts matter and antimatter, would produce gamma rays that are not observed. Mirror: arXiv
- 12a.
Section 7 Conclusions, pages 19–20: Page numbers of the arXiv preprint. “Direct searches for annihilation radiation show that d0 > 20 Mpc… Our conservative estimate of the relic CDG flux far exceeds its measured value. Thus, we have ruled out a B = 0 universe with domains smaller than a size comparable to that of the visible universe.” ↩ ↩
- 12a.
- 13.
Milgrom, Mordehai. “A Modification of the Newtonian Dynamics: Implications for Galaxies.” ApJ 270:371–383. 1983. The second of Milgrom's three 1983 papers on modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND). Its abstract lists the predictions the theory makes for galaxy rotation curves and gives its acceleration constant, a0. The article quotes those predictions as the tests the theory set for itself.
- 13a.
Section Abstract, page 371: “The main predictions are: 1. Rotation curves calculated on the basis of the observed mass distribution and the modified dynamics should agree with the observed velocity curves. 2. The V∞⁴ = a0GM relation should hold exactly. 3. An analog of the Oort discrepancy should exist in all galaxies and become more severe with increasing r in a predictable way.” Result 5 of the same abstract: “The value of the acceleration constant, a0, determined in a few independent ways is approximately 2 × 10−8 (H0/50 km s−1 Mpc−1)² cm s−2, which is of the order of cH0 = 5 × 10−8 (H0/50 km s−1 Mpc−1) cm s−2.” ↩ ↩
- 13a.
- 14.
Skordis, Constantinos, and Tom Złośnik. “New Relativistic Theory for Modified Newtonian Dynamics.” Physical Review Letters 127:161302. 2021. A 2021 paper that proposes a relativistic gravity theory giving modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) in galaxies, called aether scalar tensor theory (AeST). Its abstract says it agrees with the cosmic microwave background and matter power spectra on large scales, and that its action is free of ghost instabilities at second order. The article calls it the current best attempt. Mirror: arXiv
- 15.
Noterdaeme, P. et al. “The Evolution of the Cosmic Microwave Background Temperature: Measurements of TCMB at High Redshift from Carbon Monoxide Excitation.” Astronomy & Astrophysics 526:L7. 2011. A measurement of the background temperature at high redshift, made from carbon monoxide. The article uses its result as a test of how the background temperature changes with redshift. Mirror: arXiv
- 15a.
Section Abstract: “Combining our precise measurements with previous constraints, we obtain TCMB(z) = (2.725 ± 0.002) × (1+z)(1−β) K with beta = −0.007 ± 0.027, a more than two-fold improvement in precision.” Sunyaev-Zel'dovich determinations give a joint deviation parameter α = −0.001 ± 0.012 (Hurier et al., A&A 561:A143, 2014; de Martino et al., ApJ 808:128, 2015). ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩
- 15a.
- 16.
Hoyle, F. “A New Model for the Expanding Universe.” Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 108:372–382. 1948. A 1948 paper by Hoyle, received on 5 August 1948, that sets out the steady-state idea. It shows that continuous creation of matter lets a universe expand while its density stays constant, with no need for Einstein's cosmological constant (a term in Einstein's equations). The article uses it for Hoyle's own reason for the idea: the aesthetic objection to creation in the remote past.
- 16a.
Page 372: “This possibility seemed attractive, especially when taken in conjunction with aesthetic objections to the creation of the universe in the remote past. For it is against the spirit of scientific enquiry to regard observable effects as arising from 'causes unknown to science', and this in principle is what creation-in-the-past implies.” ↩ ↩ ↩
- 16a.
- 17.
Hartnett, John G. “Unknown Selection Effect Simulates Redshift Periodicity in Quasar Number Counts from Sloan Digital Sky Survey.” Astrophysics and Space Science 324:13–16. 2009. A short paper by a physicist who had championed quantized redshifts, on quasar counts in Sloan Digital Sky Survey data, which finds that an apparent periodicity is a selection effect. The article cites it as the decisive paper, and its author is a creationist. Mirror: arXiv
- 17a.
Section Abstract: “However the same periods are found in the mean of the zConf parameter used to flag the reliability of the spectroscopic measurements. It follows that these redshift periods must result from some selection effect, as yet undetermined. It does not signal any intrinsic (quantized) redshifts in the quasars.” ↩
- 17a.
- 18.
Zwicky, F. “On the Red Shift of Spectral Lines through Interstellar Space.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 15(10):773–779. 1929. A short theory paper that proposes a new effect of masses on light, described as a sort of gravitational analogue of the Compton effect, to explain the apparent velocity of recession of distant nebulae. It was communicated to the journal on 26 August 1929, and it is the original tired-light proposal that the article examines.
- 18a.
Page 775, section §F, The Gravitational 'Drag' of Light: “According to the relativity theory, a light quantum hν has an inertial and a gravitational mass hν/c2. It should be expected, therefore, that a quantum hν passing a mass M will not only be deflected but it will also transfer momentum and energy to the mass M and make it recoil. During this process, the light quantum will change its energy and, therefore, its frequency.” ↩
- 18b.
Page 775, section §D: “Also, it is evident that any explanation based on a scattering process like the Compton effect or the Raman effect, etc., will be in a hopeless position regarding the good definition of the images as mentioned under B4.” ↩
- 18c.
Page 778: The result is. “Δν/ν = 1.4π f ρ D L / c2.” The inputs: “For the total space investigated, the possible limits for ρ are according to E. Hubble 10−26 gr./cm.3 > ρ > 10−31. The mutual distance l of the galactic systems being of the order l = 106 parsecs, we may assume D for instance of the order 1000 l = 3 × 1027 cm.” The output: “Then Δν/ν for L = 106 parsecs according to our formula will be in the limits 3 × 10−2 > Δν/ν > 3 × 10−7. From Hubble's linear relation, we have Δν/ν ∼ 1/600 for the same L. In view of this agreement in order of magnitude, a further elaboration of the theory seems to be worthwhile.” ↩
- 18a.
- 19.
Scolnic, Dan et al. “The Pantheon+ Analysis: The Full Data Set and Light-Curve Release.” The Astrophysical Journal 938:113. 2022. The full data set and light-curve release for Pantheon+, a large collection of Type Ia supernovae. The article's fits use 1,371 of them, those above z = 0.023, with diagonal (uncorrelated) statistical errors and the absolute-magnitude offset marginalised analytically, meaning averaged out mathematically. The article uses it as the test Lisle proposed for Type Ia supernovae, since its distances and redshifts are a public download. ↩
- 20.
The supernova fits are the Doppler article's own, on the public Pantheon+ distances. It used the 1,371 supernovae above z = 0.023 that are not distance-ladder calibrators, marginalised the absolute magnitude and Hubble constant so that only the shape of the distance-redshift curve is tested, and used diagonal statistical errors only. Against a standard model with ΩM = 0.3 it reports Δχ² of 29 for the coasting Milne model, 126 for Lisle's model as published, 1,785 for Lisle's model with reciprocity enforced and 1,583 for tired light, with the same order when the lowest redshifts are cut at z > 0.1 or z > 0.2. The script is pantheon_fit.py. ↩
- 21.
Sayers, Jack et al. “A Measurement of the Kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Signal Toward MACS J0717.5+3745.” The Astrophysical Journal 778(1):52. 2013. A measurement of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, the Doppler-type shift that hot gas in a moving galaxy cluster gives the microwave background, toward the cluster MACS J0717.5+3745. The best-fit line-of-sight velocity for sub-cluster B is +3,450 ± 900 km/s, and the article uses it as a direct measure of the speed of a fast-moving merging cluster. Mirror: arXiv ↩ ↩
- 22.
Arp, Halton. “A Connection Between the Spiral Galaxy NGC 4319 and the Quasi-Stellar Object Markarian 205.” Astrophysical Letters 9:1–4. 1971. A four-page letter in which Arp reports a luminous filament joining the quasar Markarian 205 to the nucleus of the spiral galaxy NGC 4319. The filament shows on a four-hour photograph taken with the 200-inch Palomar telescope on 28 March 1971, and on hydrogen-light plates from May 1971. Its conclusion is that Markarian 205 is connected to the nucleus of a larger galaxy with a lower redshift. The article uses it as Arp's flagship case, which the article says later evidence resolved against him.
- 23.
Scranton, Ryan et al. “Detection of Cosmic Magnification with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.” The Astrophysical Journal 633:589–602. 2005. A measurement paper by a large team of Sloan Digital Sky Survey astronomers, which detects cosmic magnification (the brightening and spreading of distant quasars by the gravity of foreground matter) at 8σ, a statistical confidence far beyond chance, using about 200,000 quasars and 13 million galaxies over 3,800 square degrees of sky. The authors say the result agrees with predictions from the WMAP concordance cosmology, the standard model of the universe, and they note that earlier attempts to measure this effect had often disagreed with one another. The article uses it to show that the excess of quasars near bright galaxies has a standard explanation.
- 23a.
Section Abstract: “We present an 8σ detection of cosmic magnification measured by the variation of quasar density due to gravitational lensing by foreground large scale structure. To make this measurement we used 3800 square degrees of photometric observations from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) containing ~ 200,000 quasars and 13 million galaxies. Our measurement of the galaxy-quasar cross-correlation function exhibits the amplitude, angular dependence and change in sign as a function of the slope of the observed quasar number counts that is expected from magnification bias due to weak gravitational lensing… Our measurements of cosmic magnification probe scales ranging from 60 h−1 kpc to 10 h−1 Mpc and are in good agreement with theoretical predictions based on the WMAP concordance cosmology.” ↩
- 23a.
- 24.
López-Corredoira, M., and C. M. Gutiérrez. “The field surrounding NGC 7603: cosmological or non-cosmological redshifts?” Astronomy & Astrophysics 421:407–423. 2004. A follow-up by the same two authors, based on imaging from three campaigns spread over two years, archive Hubble Space Telescope images and spectra of the field around NGC 7603. They classify the two faint filament objects as HII galaxies, small galaxies with very vigorous star formation, and find the quasar density roughly as expected at the faintness limit of their data. They calculate about 3 × 10−9 as the chance of three background galaxies landing on that filament by accident, and the article uses that figure as its headline probability.
- 24a.
Section §5.2.2, page 20: Page numbers of the arXiv preprint. “Summing up, even in the worst of the cases, we have that the probability to find only one case like the present three background galaxies of the given magnitudes in the filament/arm among all galaxies up to magnitude 14.0 in B-filter is around 10−5, so we consider that it is justified to talk about 'anomaly'.” The trials factor, a correction for how many galaxies were searched, is the 3,655 galaxies in SIMBAD with mB < 14.0. ↩
- 24a.
- 25.
Bondi, H., and T. Gold. “The Steady-State Theory of the Expanding Universe.” MNRAS 108:252–270. 1948. A paper that asks whether the laws of terrestrial physics can be trusted in cosmology, and argues that an expanding universe can stay stationary only if matter is continuously created. It takes the universe to be homogeneous and stationary, and claims that all the observational tests it considers agree with the theory. The paper was received on 14 July 1948. The article uses it as the origin of the steady-state model's two core ideas: the perfect cosmological principle and a rate of matter creation too small to observe.
- 25a.
Page 254: “This combination of the usual cosmological principle and the stationary postulate we shall call the perfect cosmological principle, and all our arguments will be based on it. The universe is postulated to be homogeneous and stationary in its large-scale appearance as well as in its physical laws.” ↩
- 25b.
Page 266: “Accordingly we assume that the rate of creation is everywhere about 10−43 g. per sec. per cm.3, although variations by a factor of, say 100, are quite permissible. This rate corresponds to one new atom of hydrogen per cubic metre per 3 × 105 years. Accordingly we cannot expect the process to be directly observable.” Page 252: The summary puts it as: “continuous creation of matter in space at a rate which is, however, far too low for direct observation.” ↩
- 25a.
- 26.
Ryle, M., and R. W. Clarke. “An Examination of the Steady-State Model in the Light of Some Recent Observations of Radio Sources.” Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 122:349–362. 1961. A 1961 paper by M. Ryle and R. W. Clarke, based on observations made at the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory, that compares new counts of faint radio sources with the numbers the steady-state model predicts. Received 30 January 1961. The article uses it as the first failure of the steady-state model, since the counts show the distant universe is not like the nearby one.
- 26a.
Section Summary, page 349: “A comparison of these observational results with those predicted by the steady-state model shows a marked discrepancy, the number of sources observed with a flux density in the range 0·5 to 2 × 10−26 watts (c/s)−1 m−2 being at least 3 ± 0·5 times that predicted by the model. No attempt has been made to select an alternative model to account for the observations, but the results appear to provide conclusive evidence against the steady-state model.” Page 361: The same sentence closes the paper. ↩
- 26a.
- 27.
Schmidt, Maarten. “Space Distribution and Luminosity Functions of Quasi-Stellar Radio Sources.” Astrophysical Journal 151:393–409. 1968. A 1968 paper by Maarten Schmidt that maps how quasi-stellar radio sources (quasars) are spread through space, using sources from the Revised 3C Catalogue. It introduced the V/Vm test for whether such sources are evenly spread, and found that they are not: their density rises with redshift. The article uses it for the density of these sources at redshift 1, compared with nearby ones.
- 27a.
Section Abstract, page 393: “The distribution in space is found to be strongly non-uniform. The space density, in co-moving coordinates, is increasing with redshift z, such that at z = 1 the density is around 150 and 80 times the local (z = 0) density, for q0 = 0 and q0 = 1, respectively. This density increase corresponds to a N(S) relation quite similar to that exhibited by extragalactic radio sources.” Page 400: The test itself is defined here. “The test for uniformity is simply that V/Vm has a uniform distribution from 0 to 1 for the total sample of sources.” ↩
- 27a.
- 28.
Lerner, Eric J. “Radio Absorption by the Intergalactic Medium.” The Astrophysical Journal 361:63–68. 1990. A research paper written from Lawrenceville Plasma Physics and published in The Astrophysical Journal. It uses a sample of 237 spiral galaxies and finds that, for a given infrared brightness, a galaxy's radio brightness falls with its distance. Lerner reads that fall as radio light absorbed by the gas between galaxies. The paper was received on 19 July 1989 and accepted on 20 March 1990. The article uses it as the published basis for the plasma claim that the microwave background is made locally and has no direct cosmological significance.
- 28a.
Page 67, left column: “law dictates that for a body of optical depth unity to have a blackbody spectrum, it must be both emitting and absorbing radiation in near equilibrium. The CBR must therefore originate locally, if radio absorption is strong. This does not by itself exclude the big bang as the ultimate source of the CBR energy, but it implies that the isotropy and blackbody spectrum of the CBR, long used as primary evidence of the big band [sic], are caused, or at least greatly modified, by the local intergalactic medium, and have no direct cosmological significance.” ↩
- 28a.
- 29.
McGaugh, Stacy S. “A Novel Test of the Modified Newtonian Dynamics with Gas Rich Galaxies.” Physical Review Letters 106:121303. 2011. A 2011 letter that compares MOND with 47 galaxies dominated by gas, and reports that the data fall where MOND predicts with zero free parameters. The article uses it for the author's claim that the relation the data follow is unique to MOND, and for the author's own admission that galaxy clusters are a problem for the theory. Mirror: arXiv
- 29a.
Page 2: Preprint page numbers. On the sample of 47 gas-dominated galaxies. “The data fall precisely where MOND predicts. This happens with no fitting whatsoever — there are zero free parameters in Fig. 2. Computing χ² with the slope fixed to 4 and the normalization fixed at the previously determined value of a0 gives χ² = 44.3 for 46 degrees of freedom for a reduced χ²ν = 0.96. If we treat a0 as a fit parameter and minimize χ² with the slope fixed to 4, we find a0 = 1.24 ± 0.14 × 10−10 m s−2. This is indistinguishable from the previous value, and χ² actually increases because we have added an unneeded degree of freedom: χ²ν = 0.99. If we further treat the slope as an additional free parameter, we find 3.8 ± 0.2. This does not differ significantly from the MOND prediction of 4, nor does it improve the fit: χ²ν = 0.98.” ↩
- 29b.
Page 3: Preprint page numbers. “The most serious observational problem facing MOND is the dynamics of rich clusters of galaxies. These appear to weigh more than can be accounted for with the observed baryons even with the modified dynamics. This residual mass discrepancy is roughly a factor of two in mass. On the one hand, this is very disturbing — a theory that seeks to eliminate the need for cosmic dark matter itself suffers a missing mass problem.” The same page continues: “While some of the mass in clusters appears to be dark, even in MOND, there is nothing that requires this unseen mass to be in some new form of non-baryonic particle. Indeed, big bang nucleosynthesis implies the existence of considerably more baryons than have so far been detected. If only a fraction of these missing baryons reside in clusters it would suffice to resolve the residual mass discrepancy suffered by MOND.” ↩ ↩
- 29a.
- 30.
McGaugh, Stacy S. “MOND Prediction for the Velocity Dispersion of the 'Feeble Giant' Crater II.” ApJ Letters 832:L8. 2016. A 2016 letter, posted as an arXiv preprint on 19 October 2016, that predicts the velocity spread of stars in the faint galaxy Crater II before anyone had measured it. The prediction rests on MOND's external field effect, the pull of the Milky Way strong enough to change the galaxy's own dynamics, and it gives about 2 km/s where a galaxy isolated from the Milky Way would show about 4. The article uses it as its clearest example of a prediction made in advance. Mirror: arXiv
- 30a.
Section 4.3, page 5: Preprint page numbers. “Barring a drastic failure of the input data and necessary assumptions, the velocity dispersion of Crater II must be σefe ≈ 2 km s−1. It should not be 4 km s−1 as it would be if Crater II were isolated. It certainly should not be significantly larger: a high observed velocity dispersion would falsify MOND.” ↩
- 30a.
- 31.
Caldwell, Nelson et al. “Crater 2: An Extremely Cold Dark Matter Halo.” ApJ 839:20. 2017. A spectroscopic study of Crater 2, a satellite of the Milky Way, which identified about 62 members among 390 candidate stars. It measured their velocity spread at 2.7 km/s, the coldest of any dwarf galaxy resolved so far, and was posted to arXiv on 19 December 2016, two months after McGaugh's prediction. The article uses it as the measurement that fell inside MOND's predicted band.
- 31a.
Section Abstract: “We present results from MMT/Hectochelle spectroscopy of 390 red giant candidate stars along the line of sight to the recently-discovered Galactic satellite Crater 2… we identify ∼62 members of Crater 2, for which we resolve line-of-sight velocity dispersion σvlos = 2.7 +0.3 −0.3 km s−1… Despite Crater 2's relatively large size (projected halflight radius Rh ∼ 1 kpc) and intermediate luminosity (MV ∼ −8), its velocity dispersion is the coldest that has been resolved for any dwarf galaxy. These properties make Crater 2 the most extreme low-density outlier in dynamical as well as structural scaling relations among the Milky Way's dwarf spheroidals.” ↩
- 31a.
- 32.
Clowe, Douglas et al. “A Direct Empirical Proof of the Existence of Dark Matter.” ApJ Letters 648:L109–L113. 2006. A 2006 weak-lensing study of 1E0657-558, a pair of galaxy clusters that collided. It maps the mass from the way it bends light, using ground-based and Hubble images, and finds that the mass sits with the galaxies rather than with the X-ray-emitting plasma, the largest share of ordinary matter in the system, an offset of 8σ. The article uses it as the direct test that changing the gravity law cannot explain that offset.
- 33.
Lovyagin, Nikita et al. “Cosmological Model Tests with JWST.” Galaxies 10(6):108. 2022. A 2022 journal article that runs the "angular diameter—redshift" test on the first JWST observations, which compares how large distant galaxies look with how far away they are. It compares the standard model with static models, including Zwicky's tired-light model, and says tired light is currently assumed to be ruled out but challenges that assumption. The article cites it as a 2022 static-universe analysis that challenges the assumption that tired light is ruled out.
- 33a.
Page 14, section §4: “Another important distinctive parameter is the cosmological time dilation. It can be used for determining the nature of the cosmological redshift. For example, the static cosmological model with photon-energy dissipation predicts no time dilation. Whereas the FRLW models and the static models with the cosmological redshift of the general-relativistic (gravitational) nature predict the time-dilation factor scaling with the factor of (1 + z). The time-dilation effect is actually observed in the light-curves of the type-Ia supernovae, which strongly supports the expanding-Universe models or the static-Universe models of the Einstein-de-Sitter type.” ↩ ↩
- 33b.
Pages 14–15, section §4: “Although our analysis of JWST observations favours a static (TL) model of the Universe rather than the standard (expanding-Universe) cosmology, the latter is strongly supported by other observational evidence. The main challenges which any static cosmological model must face are the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the abundance of chemical elements in the Universe and the formation of cosmic structure.” ↩
- 33a.
- 34.
Barnes, Luke A. “Size of Galaxies in JWST Data and Cosmology — Reply to Lisle.” Answers Research Journal 17:785–789. 2024. A reply to Lisle in the same journal, written by Luke A. Barnes of Sydney, Australia. Barnes ran a standard galaxy-formation simulation (the SAGE model, run through the free TAO web tool) and found that its predicted galaxy sizes are consistent with the JWST data, including data above redshift z = 7. He says the apparent conflict comes from Lisle's own model, which gives every galaxy one size at all times, and the article uses it for Barnes's claim that Lisle's Doppler model is the same as an expanding-space model described in other coordinates, and for his point that the Doppler model gives no young universe.
- 34a.
Page 788: “Thus, the 'Doppler Model' of Lisle (2024) is physically indistinguishable from an expanding space model. It is a mere redescription. The only difference is a change of coordinates, which aren't physically observable.” ↩
- 34b.
Page 788: “In both the Doppler Model and the standard model, the finite speed of light will make the universe appear to be billions of years old, so supporting the first while criticising the second does nothing to solve the Starlight and Time problem.” ↩
- 34c.
Page 788: The sentences that follow the one on the Starlight and Time problem, in the same paragraph. “Lisle proposes to solve this with the Anisotropic synchrony convention, which implies that we see galaxies as they are now, regardless of how far away they are. This gives the model enough freedom that any observed population of galaxies is consistent with a young universe. In that case, one might as well attach the convention to the Big Bang model and be done with it.” ↩
- 34a.
- 35.
Naidu, Rohan P. et al. “A Cosmic Miracle: A Remarkably Luminous Galaxy at zspec = 14.44 Confirmed with JWST.” The Open Journal of Astrophysics. 2026. An observational paper confirming the redshift of MoM-z14, a luminous galaxy, from a sharp Lyman-α break in JWST NIRSpec spectra, a drop in its ultraviolet light caused by hydrogen absorption. The article cites it as the most distant spectroscopically confirmed galaxy, at redshift 14.44, and uses that redshift in its check of Lisle's own equations for the age of the universe. Mirror: arXiv ↩
- 36.
Mills, B. Y., and O. B. Slee. “A Preliminary Survey of Radio Sources in a Limited Region of the Sky at a Wavelength of 3.5 m.” Australian Journal of Physics 10:162–194. 1957. A 1957 survey of radio sources at a wavelength of 3.5 m, made in Sydney, that checked its own list against the Cambridge survey. Its authors worked out that the Cambridge list is reliable only above a certain flux density, and that agreement between the two surveys breaks down below it. The article uses it to show that the first version of the radio-source argument, which relied on the Cambridge catalogue, was wrong.
- 36a.
Section §V, Analysis of the Sydney Catalogue (opening), page 174: “It has been shown that the Cambridge catalogue does not agree with ours and that errors in the former due to poor resolution might be expected to occur just at the level where agreement begins to break down. On the other hand, the corresponding level of reliability in our catalogue is nearly 10 times lower at a flux density of 8 × 10−26 W m−2 (c/s)−1.” Page 179: On their own source counts: “the slope of the straight portion which, being three probable errors greater than −1·5, suggests a possible cosmological effect; it is necessary to estimate the contribution of instrumental effects to this increased slope.” ↩
- 36a.
- 37.
Hoyle, F. et al. “Note on a Comment by Edward L. Wright.” arXiv. Dec 14, 1994. A four-page reply by the three authors of the quasi-steady-state model (a steady-state model whose expansion pulses up and down) to Edward Wright's criticism of their radio-source counts, not published in a journal, and its own reference list cites Wright's critique as "Wright, E.L. 1994, preprint." The authors say the model's free parameters can be re-chosen to fit the data, and they ask why standard cosmology needs radio sources to evolve so sharply in the recent past. The article uses both points.
- 37a.
Page 3: “As we have said elsewhere the QSSC is based on a fundamentally new idea involving matter creation in an oscillatory mode imposed on an expanding universe. … The exact values of the free parameters of the theory are not known. The points in dispute are related to the numerical values we have chosen when we compare with observational details. Suitable choices can and do make the theory compatible with the observations, i.e. it is obvious that the theory is not disproved by Wright's analysis of the data.” ↩
- 37a.
- 38.
Alfvén, Hannes. Plasma physics, space research and the origin of the solar system. Pages 306–316. Dec 11, 1970. Alfvén's Nobel Lecture of 11 December 1970, on how the Solar System formed. It argues that plasma physics is fundamental to understanding the Solar System's origin, and that the first approach to cosmic plasma physics has been a failure in several important cases. The article uses it for Alfvén's own verdict on cosmic plasma physics and for the two approaches he set side by side.
- 38a.
Page 308: “The cosmical plasma physics of today is far less advanced than the thermonuclear research physics. It is to some extent the playground of theoreticians who have never seen a plasma in a laboratory. Many of them still believe in formulae which we know from laboratory experiments to be wrong. The astrophysical correspondence to the thermonuclear crisis has not yet come.” ↩
- 38a.
- 39.
McGaugh, Stacy S. et al. “The Radial Acceleration Relation in Rotationally Supported Galaxies.” Physical Review Letters 117:201101. 2016. A 2016 letter that reports a tight relation, across 153 rotating galaxies, between the acceleration traced by their rotation and the acceleration predicted from the observed ordinary matter alone. Its 2693 data points follow one relation with small scatter, which the authors say is largely caused by measurement uncertainty, and they call the relation a natural law for rotating galaxies. The article uses it as the source of the best modern measurement of MOND's acceleration constant, and for its point that the scatter is about the size of the measurement errors. Mirror: arXiv
- 39a.
Section Abstract: “We report a correlation between the radial acceleration traced by rotation curves and that predicted by the observed distribution of baryons. The same relation is followed by 2693 points in 153 galaxies with very different morphologies, masses, sizes, and gas fractions. The correlation persists even when dark matter dominates. Consequently, the dark matter contribution is fully specified by that of the baryons. The observed scatter is small and largely dominated by observational uncertainties. This radial acceleration relation is tantamount to a natural law for rotating galaxies.” ↩
- 39b.
Page 3: Preprint page numbers. “For our adopted Υ⋆, we find g† = 1.20 ± 0.02 (random) ± 0.24 (systematic) × 10−10 m s−2.” ↩
- 39a.
- 40.
Lewis, Geraint F., and Brendon J. Brewer. “Detection of the Cosmological Time Dilation of High Redshift Quasars.” Nature Astronomy 7:1265–1269. 2023. A 2023 paper that reports cosmic time dilation (distant events appear to unfold more slowly) in 190 quasars, each monitored for over two decades in several wavebands. It assesses its hypotheses with Bayesian analysis, a method that weighs each one by how well it fits the data. The article quotes its claim that this counters earlier reports that quasar variability lacked the expected time dilation. Mirror: arXiv
- 40a.
Section Abstract: “Whilst observations of cosmological supernovae unambiguously display the expected redshift-dependent time dilation, this has not been the case for other distant sources. Here we present the identification of cosmic time dilation in a sample of 190 quasars monitored for over two decades in multiple wavebands by assessing various hypotheses through Bayesian analysis. This detection counters previous claims that observed quasar variability lacked the expected redshift-dependent time dilation.” ↩
- 40a.
- 41.
Brewer, Brendon J. et al. “Revisiting the Cosmological Time Dilation of Distant Quasars: Influence of Source Properties and Evolution.” Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 537(2):809–816. 2025. A reanalysis of the 2023 quasar result that adds source properties and evolution to the model, and finds that an intrinsic scatter in the variability timescales, which the earlier analysis did not consider, is favoured by the data. It still finds the cosmological signal, with exponent n = 1.14 ± 0.34, which the authors say is consistent with relativistic cosmologies. The article uses it as a follow-up in which the 2023 authors, with Yuan Li, tested their own result. Mirror: arXiv
- 41a.
Section Conclusions: “Despite these adjustments, we still detect the cosmological signal (albeit with slightly increased uncertainty), finding that a cosmological dependence of the form (1 + z)n yields n = 1.14 ± 0.34, consistent with the expectations from relativistic cosmologies. We compared our modelling assumptions against several alternatives and demonstrated that our main model was favoured over most others using a Bayesian model comparison approach. The only exception was a model that assumes n = 1, which outperformed the main model.” Section Abstract: The abstract adds that. “a significant intrinsic scatter of 0.288 ± 0.021 dex in the variability timescales, which was not considered in the previous analysis, is favoured by the data.” ↩
- 41a.
- 42.
Walsh, D. et al. “0957 + 561 A, B: twin quasistellar objects or gravitational lens?” Nature 279:381–384. May 31, 1979. A report in Nature on two quasars 5.7 arc seconds apart, whose spectra leave little doubt that they are associated. The authors discuss whether they are two distinct objects or two images of one quasar made by a gravitational lens, a massive object whose gravity bends light. The article uses it as the first case of this kind, found in 1979.
- 42a.
Section Abstract: “0957 + 561 A, B are two QSOs of mag 17 with 5.7 arc s separation at redshift 1.405. Their spectra leave little doubt that they are associated. Difficulties arise in describing them as two distinct objects and the possibility that they are two images of the same object formed by a gravitational lens is discussed.” ↩
- 42a.
- 43.
Angus, Garry W. “Is an 11 eV sterile neutrino consistent with clusters, the cosmic microwave background and modified Newtonian dynamics?” MNRAS 394:527–532. 2009. A theory paper asking whether one sterile neutrino of about 11 eV could solve MOND's outstanding problems, on the scale of clusters and on the scale of the microwave background. Its model is flat, with the neutrino density parameter Ω at about 0.23, and has the same expansion history as the standard model, ΛCDM. The article uses it as the MOND cosmology that matches the microwave background, by adding a hot dark matter component.
- 43a.
Section Abstract: “If a single sterile neutrino exists such that mνs ∼ 11 eV, it can serendipitously solve all outstanding issues of the Modified Newtonian Dynamics. With it one can explain the dark matter of galaxy clusters without influencing individual galaxies, match the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background and potentially fit the matter power spectrum. This model is flat with Ωνs ∼ 0.23 and the usual baryonic and dark energy components, thus the Universe has the same expansion history as the ΛCDM model and only differs at the galactic scale where the Modified Dynamics outperforms ΛCDM significantly.” ↩ ↩
- 43a.
- 44.
Hartnett, John G. “The Carmeli metric correctly describes spiral galaxy rotation curves.” arXiv:gr-qc/0407082. Jul 22, 2004. A preprint by John G. Hartnett of the University of Western Australia (version 6 is dated 4 April 2005), arguing that Carmeli's extension of general relativity explains spiral galaxy rotation without dark matter. It derives the Tully-Fisher relation, the link between a galaxy's mass and the fourth power of its rotation speed, from the theory's own equations, and fits the rotation curve of NGC 6503. The article uses it for the theory's characteristic acceleration and for Hartnett's claim that the theory gives the Tully-Fisher relation without dark matter.
- 44a.
Section §I: “Hence the latter is consistent with Milgrom's phenomenological approach in the low acceleration limit.” Section §IV: “
(2/3)a₀ ≈ 5.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ m s⁻², depending on the precise value ofτ.” ↩ - 44b.
Section §I: “As a consequence a universal constant
a₀(in this case, slightly different to Milgrom's) is introduced as the minimum acceleration in the cosmos.” ↩
- 44a.
- 45.
Carroll, Sean. “Doubt and dissent are not tolerated.” Preposterous Universe. May 29, 2004. A blog post by Sean Carroll replying to an online petition, first published in New Scientist, that complained of the terrible dominance of the Big Bang model. The article uses it for Carroll's list of Big Bang predictions that came true, his answer to Eric Lerner's energy argument, and his remark that young people who doubt the Big Bang are unlikely to get permanent jobs at research universities.
- 45a.
“And yes, young people who disbelieve in the Big Bang are unlikely to get invited to speak at major conferences, or get permanent jobs at research universities. Likewise astrophysicists who believe in astrology, or medical doctors who use leeches to fight cancer.” ↩
- 45a.
- 46.
Tsymbal, V. V. et al. Cosmological Observational Tests in the JWST Era. II: The Tolman Test. Apr 30, 2026. A preprint, not peer reviewed at the time of writing, that tests the Tolman surface-brightness prediction on 6 860 JWST galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts. The article notes that this group has argued for static cosmologies before, and that a preprint is not a result.
- 46a.
Section abstract: “We analyzed 6 860 galaxies with reliably determined spectroscopic redshifts from the ASTRODEEP-JWST photometric catalogue. We find that (a) the mean surface brightness of galaxies indeed decreases with increasing distance, and (b) the observed trend shows a significant departure from the prediction of the standard cosmological model, which expects the mean surface brightness to decline as ~ (1 + z)-4.” ↩
- 46a.
- 47.
Lerner, Eric J. “Observations contradict galaxy size and surface brightness predictions that are based on the expanding universe hypothesis.” Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 477(3):3185–3196. 2018. A 2018 paper by Eric J. Lerner, published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, on the sizes and surface brightnesses of galaxies. The article calls it Lerner's one refereed astronomy paper since 2004.
- 47a.
Section Abstract: “We show that the radii data for both disc and elliptical galaxies are incompatible with any of the published size-evolution predictions based on an expanding universe.” Twenty-seven citations as of August 2026, mostly in alternative-cosmology venues, and no published rebuttal. His widely circulated JWST claim appeared in IAI News (11 August 2022), a magazine, not a journal. ↩
- 47a.
- 48.
Cirelli, Marco et al. Dark Matter. Oct 31, 2025. A 524-page review of dark matter. Its chapter 11, "Alternatives to Dark Matter," covers MOND, including the 1984 Bekenstein and Milgrom version and a relativistic model by Skordis and Złośnik. The article uses it for two points: that the bare MOND formula is not a consistent theory, and that the scalar field in a relativistic MOND model can play the role of dark matter in cosmology.
- 48a.
Page 401: “The present situation is confusing; while some authors that analysed the Gaia data claim that wide binaries agree with the Newtonian dynamics, and thus exclude MONDian effects with up to 19σ significance (see Banik et al. (2023)), others instead claim a discovery of MONDian anomalies with a significance of up to 10σ, and thus an exclusion of Newtonian dynamics (see Chae (2023)). The main issue is that some wide binaries involve a third unseen object, that produces MONDian-like deviations from Newtonian gravity.” ↩
- 48a.
- 49.
Marra, Valerio et al. “A fundamental test for MOND.” MNRAS 494:2875–2885. 2020. A 2020 journal paper that repeats a test of whether galaxies share one fundamental acceleration constant, a0, and finds that a shared constant is incompatible with the data at more than 5σ. Rodrigues, a co-author here, led the 2018 version, and this paper replaces its Gaussian approximations with a Monte Carlo simulation, a method that builds the statistics from many random trials. The article uses it because the same sample gives 26σ, 14σ and 5.3σ under three statistical treatments, which shows how much the result depends on method. Mirror: arXiv
- 49a.
Section Conclusions, page 9: Preprint page numbers. “In this way, we have confirmed that there is a strong evidence against a common a0 value: a fundamental acceleration scale a0 is rejected at more than 5σ.” ↩
- 49a.
- 50.
Narlikar, J. V., and T. Padmanabhan. “Standard Cosmology and Alternatives: A Critical Appraisal.” Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 39:211–248. 2001. A review article that appraises standard cosmology and its alternatives, including the quasi-steady-state model, by J. V. Narlikar and T. Padmanabhan. The article calls both authors the model's own, and uses the review because it concedes that the model has major weaknesses and cannot yet make clear predictions.
- 50a.
Quoted at second hand, as the article says. The wording is Kragh's report of the review in arXiv:1201.3449, p. 25, and Kragh gives the locators as p. 239 and p. 246. “In a refreshingly self-critical review Narlikar and T. Padmanabhan refer to 'the snowball effect arising from the social dynamics of research funding,' but they also admit major methodological and technical weaknesses in QSSC. The model 'lacks the simplicity and beauty of the original steady state model' and 'cannot continue to survive and hope to make an impact based purely on the shortcomings of SC [the standard cosmology].' It needs to be developed to such a level that it can make clear predictions rather than provide post facto explanations for already observed phenomena.” ↩
- 50a.