Summary
Yes, and this is measurement, not inference. Three independent surface records put 2015–2024 at 1.20 to 1.33 °C above the late 1800s.1 The satellite record kept by Spencer and Christy, two of the dissenting scientists named by Creation Ministries International (CMI), shows the lower atmosphere warming 0.16 °C per decade since 1979.2 The top 2,000 metres of ocean gained about 22 × 10²² joules between 2005 and 2025, by two independent groups' counts.3 CMI's claims that ocean heat shows "almost no change" and that satellites showed "little change" after 1988 fail on the data.
Arctic sea ice tells the same story, with a twist the young-earth writers could have used. Its September minimum fell by half between 1980 and 2012, and then stopped declining around 2007.
The temperature records have been adjusted, and in the United States the adjustments are large. But they correct known biases that made the raw readings too cool, they bring the old network into line with a newer one built not to need adjustment, and over the whole globe they reduce the warming instead of adding to it. A group founded by a physicist who doubted the records rebuilt them from scratch and got the same answer.
This article tests what Don Batten's climate article for CMI says about the record.4 The young-earth writers mostly concede the warming itself. What follows from it is argued in the sibling articles: Is the Warming Caused by Humans?, How Much Warming Does More CO2 Cause?, How Well Have Climate Predictions Done? and Has Climate Science Been Dishonest?.
Part 1: Four measured records
This is the least disputed of the climate questions, and the young-earth writers mostly concede it. CMI grants that "The satellite data (Figure 2) show some global warming since 1980."4 But CMI also makes two specific claims about the record that the data contradict, and a broader claim of "data tampering" that Part 2 takes up.
Thermometers
Three groups build the global surface record from weather stations and ships: the Met Office Hadley Centre with the University of East Anglia in Britain (HadCRUT5), NASA's Goddard Institute (GISTEMP), and Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit set up by a physicist who doubted the other two.5 They use different station selections and different methods to fill gaps.
| Record | 2015–2024, °C above the late 1800s | 2024 | Trend 1975–2025, °C per decade |
|---|---|---|---|
| HadCRUT5 (UK) | 1.27 | 1.55 | 0.21 |
| Berkeley Earth (US) | 1.33 | 1.62 | 0.21 (to 2024) |
| GISTEMP (NASA) | 1.20 | 1.50 | 0.21 |
The baseline is 1850–1900 for HadCRUT5 and Berkeley and 1880–1900 for GISTEMP, which starts in 1880.1 The three agree to within about a tenth of a degree. The warming has not been steady. The records show a rise from about 1910 to 1940, a flat or slightly cooling stretch from 1940 to 1975, and a rise since 1975 that has now run for fifty years at about 0.2 °C per decade, faster since 2000 than before. CMI is right that "there have been periods of warming and cooling" since 1880.4 Is the Warming Caused by Humans? takes up what that pattern means.
Satellites
Since 1979 microwave sounders on satellites have measured the temperature of thick layers of the atmosphere. Two teams turn the raw signal into a temperature record. One is at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, run by Roy Spencer and John Christy; the other is Remote Sensing Systems in California. Both show warming of the lower atmosphere. Spencer and Christy's record gives 0.16 °C per decade from 1979, and its decade 2016–2025 is 0.61 °C warmer than its first decade, 1979–1988. The Remote Sensing Systems record gives 0.23 °C per decade.6 The two teams process the raw signal differently, and the surface records fall between them.
CMI takes its five tests of the models from David Evans, who "formerly advised the Australian Federal government's Greenhouse Office", and his paper "The skeptics case".4 The first says that James Hansen's 1988 projections were too high compared with "NASA's subsequent satellite data, which show little change over the next 18 years, even though CO2 increased in that period."4 Over those 18 years, 1988 to 2006, Spencer and Christy's own record warmed at 0.17 °C per decade, about 0.3 °C in all. The other satellite record shows 0.27 per decade and the surface records 0.19 to 0.21.6 There was not "little change". Whether Hansen's projection ran too hot is a separate question, taken up in How Well Have Climate Predictions Done?.
The ocean
The IPCC puts 91 % of the heat the earth has gained in the ocean,7 so ocean heat is the best single measure of whether the earth is gaining energy. Since about 2005 the Argo array of robotic floats has measured temperature down to 2,000 metres across the world's oceans.8
CMI's third "failure" says: "Argo ocean temperatures from 2003. There is almost no change in the global ocean heat content from this unbiased data set."4 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's series for the top 2,000 metres rose from 10.2 to 32.5 × 10²² joules between 2005 and 2025, a gain of about 1.1 × 10²² joules every year.3 The Chinese Institute of Atmospheric Physics, working independently, finds about the same yearly gain.9 Its team, led by Lijing Cheng, reports that the ocean's rate of heat gain has itself risen: "The increase in the OHC rate in recent decades indicates a multidecadal acceleration of ocean warming".10 Spread over the whole earth, that is about 0.7 watts per square metre, every hour of every day for twenty years.11
CMI's graph label hints at why the claim looked plausible. It notes that 10²² joules is "about 0.01°C".4 Water holds a great deal of heat, so a large gain of energy is a small rise in temperature: the twenty years' gain warmed the top 2,000 metres by less than a tenth of a degree.11 That is exactly why oceanographers measure heat rather than temperature. A curve plotted in hundredths of a degree can look flat. Plotted in joules, it climbs every year.
Arctic sea ice
Satellites have measured Arctic sea ice since 1979. Its September minimum covered 7.67 million square kilometres in 1980 and 3.57 million in 2012, the lowest on record.12 CMI's figures, about 7.5 million in 1980 and 4 to 5.5 million in 2010–2020, are right.4 Something CMI does not say, and could have: the decline stopped around 2007. September ice was 4.27 million square kilometres in 2007 and 4.81 million in 2026, with no significant trend between.13 How Well Have Climate Predictions Done? takes up what that does to the forecasts of an ice-free Arctic.
Part 2: Have the records been faked?
"Data tampering"
CMI's section headed "Data tampering (fraud?)" says "there is strong evidence that institutions such as the CRU of the University of East Anglia, NASA and NOAA in the USA, the UK climate authorities, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) have been adjusting historical terrestrial temperature records to support the case for CO2-driven global warming". It quotes the blogger Tony Heller: "There is overwhelming evidence of fraud in NOAA and NASA's handling of climate data".4 CMI argues that every known change in instruments and surroundings should make recent readings too warm, so "any adjustments to make them comparable with earlier recordings should be to reduce them, not increase them!"4
The adjustments are real and, in the United States, large. A paper by NOAA scientists and others says so plainly: "the net effect of adjustments on the USHCN is quite large, effectively doubling the mean temperature trend over the past century compared to the raw observational data".14 But CMI has the direction of the main biases backwards. The largest is a change in when volunteer observers read their thermometers. Over the second half of the twentieth century most switched from afternoon to morning, and "Time of observation changes introduced a large cooling bias".14 NOAA's own description of its method says the switch "has artificially reduced the true temperature trend in the U.S. climate record".15 The second largest is the change from liquid thermometers to electronic sensors, which, NOAA found, "artificially ... cooled maximum temperatures".15
There are two independent checks. Since 2004 the United States has run a separate Climate Reference Network of stations placed away from cities and built not to need adjustment. Comparing the two networks, Zeke Hausfather and colleagues found that "adjustments make both trends and monthly anomalies from USHCN stations much more similar to those of neighboring USCRN stations".14 And globally the adjustments go the other way. Early sea-surface temperatures were measured by hauling up buckets of water, which cooled on deck, and correcting for that raises the early readings. The Met Office's guide to its sea-surface record states: "The principal effect of adjustments to HadSST.4.0.1.0 and all of the other data sets is to reduce the long-term warming relative to the unadjusted data."16 Hausfather estimates that over 1880–2016 the adjusted global record "warms more than 20% slower than the raw data", although on land alone the adjustments add 16 %.17 If the global record had been adjusted to show more warming, it was done backwards.
The strongest check is that someone skeptical rebuilt it. The physicist Richard Muller set up Berkeley Earth to test the existing records. He wrote in 2012: "Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming." After his team's own analysis, with its own station selection and methods, he concluded that the warming was real, and that "our data argues strongly that the temperature rise of the past 250 years cannot be attributed to solar changes."5 Their published record, they write, "is similar to those previously reported by other groups".18 The satellite record of Spencer and Christy, which uses no thermometers at all, also shows warming (Part 1).
On Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology's homogenised record starts in 1910 because, it says, "the Stevenson screen only became near-universal in Australia from 1910 onwards, and most pre-1910 data cannot be considered homogeneous with Stevenson screen data."19 That explains why a reading of 51.7 °C at Bourke in January 1909 is not in it. CMI's note says the Bourke reading was taken in a standard Stevenson screen.4 This article did not check that, and a single station's record is a fair question to raise. It does not bear on the national trend, still less the global one.
Objections and responses
"The temperature records have been adjusted to manufacture warming." The US land record has been adjusted upward, for documented reasons that made the raw data read too cool, and the adjusted record matches a network of stations built not to need adjustment. The global record has been adjusted downward overall, mostly by correcting old ship measurements. A skeptic-founded group rebuilt it and got the same answer, and the satellite record kept by two skeptics shows warming too (Parts 1 and 2).
Issues and unanswered questions
- Arctic sea ice. September ice has not declined significantly since 2005.20 Whether the pause ends soon, as the study that documents it expects, is an open question.
- Sources not read in full. The Bureau of Meteorology's version-2 temperature report was not read in full, and whether the 1909 Bourke reading was taken in a Stevenson screen was not checked.
Verdict
The earth is warming. Three surface records built by different groups with different methods, two satellite records, and the heat content of the ocean all show it, and they agree on its size. The satellite record kept by Spencer and Christy, which uses no thermometers at all, shows it too. CMI is right that the warming has come in bursts, that Arctic ice has stopped declining since about 2007, and that the US land record has been adjusted upward. It is wrong that ocean heat is flat, wrong that the satellites showed little change after 1988, and wrong that the adjustments manufacture warming: over the whole globe they reduce it. Whether the warming is human, and how much more is coming, are separate questions, argued in the sibling articles.
Sources
- 1.
Annual global means from HadCRUT5 version 5.2.0.0 21, Berkeley Earth 23 and GISTEMP v4 22, each re-expressed as the difference from its own 1850–1900 mean (1880–1900 for GISTEMP). Means: 2011–2020, 1.12, 1.18, 1.05 °C; 2015–2024, 1.27, 1.33, 1.20; 1940–1949, 0.33, 0.33, 0.26; 2024, 1.55, 1.62, 1.50. Least-squares trends in °C per decade: 1975–2025, 0.209, 0.208 (to 2024), 0.207; 2000–2025, 0.254, 0.257, 0.265; 1988–2006, 0.209, 0.209, 0.193; 1910–1940, 0.167, 0.130, 0.113; 1940–1975, −0.032, −0.017, −0.019; 1860–1880, 0.134 and 0.119 for HadCRUT5 and Berkeley. ↩ ↩
- 2.
Spencer, Roy W. et al. UAH global temperature, lower troposphere, version 6.1, monthly anomalies. 2026. The satellite record of lower-atmosphere temperature built by Spencer and Christy from microwave sounders, December 1978 to the present, by region, with its own trend line. ↩
- 2a.
The Trend row at the foot of the table: The file's printed trend for the global column is 0.16 °C per decade. ↩
- 2a.
- 3.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Global ocean heat content, 0–2000 m, yearly. 2026. NOAA's yearly series of heat stored in the top 2,000 metres of the world ocean, in units of 10²² joules, built from Argo floats and other profiles, 2005 to the present.
- 4.
Batten, Don. “Climate Change: A biblical and scientific approach to Anthropogenic Global Warming.” Creation Ministries International. Feb 17, 2026 (edition of 2020). CMI's main statement on modern climate, a long essay by its scientist Don Batten, a former research horticulturalist with the New South Wales Department of Agriculture, written with colleagues. It sets out a biblical history of climate, a critique of the climate movement, a scientific case for low climate sensitivity and against the temperature records, and a policy section. This article tests every factual claim in it. ↩
- 4a.
Section What we need to know: “The direct greenhouse effect of CO2 is generally agreed upon, at about 1.1°C increase for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.” Section Data tampering (fraud?): “The satellite data (Figure 2) show some global warming since 1980”. Section Sea levels (tidal data): “Unquestionably, if ice sheets on land melt, then sea levels will rise.” ↩
- 4b.
Section The surface temperature record and CO2 rise: “The amount of anthropogenic CO2 has risen fairly consistently since 1880, but the global temperature has not; there have been periods of warming and cooling (see Fig. 1).” ↩
- 4c.
Section Does positive feedback (amplification) operate: “His model predicted considerably higher air temperatures than revealed by NASA’s subsequent satellite data, which show little change over the next 18 years, even though CO2 increased in that period.” ↩
- 4d.
Section Does positive feedback (amplification) operate: “Argo ocean temperatures from 2003. There is almost no change in the global ocean heat content from this unbiased data set.” Figures 3, caption: “The unit of the vertical axis is 10²² Joules (about 0.01°C).” ↩ ↩
- 4e.
Section The fruit: “The Arctic sea ice area measured each September (the end of summer, its lowest extent of the year) declined from about 7.5 million km₂ in 1980 to about 4–5.5 million km₂ from 2010–2020 (NSIDC/NASA)”. ↩
- 4f.
Section Data tampering (fraud?): “There is good reason for this, as there is strong evidence that institutions such as the CRU of the University of East Anglia, NASA and NOAA in the USA, the UK climate authorities, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) have been adjusting historical terrestrial temperature records to support the case for CO2-driven global warming.” “There is overwhelming evidence of fraud in NOAA and NASA’s handling of climate data, and it is very important they are held to account.” ↩
- 4g.
Section Data tampering (fraud?): “Note that all the above changes would inflate recent temperatures. So any adjustments to make them comparable with earlier recordings should be to reduce them, not increase them!” ↩
- 4h.
CMI's note 60: “These temperatures were all recorded with a standard Stevenson Screen and mercury thermometer, so there is no basis for adjusting them or deleting them.” ↩
- 4i.
Section Does positive feedback (amplification) operate: “Dr David Evans formerly advised the Australian Federal government’s Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change), from 1999 to 2005, and part time from 2008 to 2010.” CMI's note 42 cites Evans, "The skeptics case", accessed in July 2020. ↩
- 4a.
- 5.
Muller, Richard A. “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic.” The New York Times. Jul 30, 2012. An opinion piece by the Berkeley physicist who founded Berkeley Earth to re-examine the temperature record, reporting what his team found.
- 6.
Least-squares trends on the monthly global anomalies of UAH v6.1 2 and RSS v4.0 25, in °C per decade: 1979–2025, UAH 0.156 and RSS 0.231; 1988–2006, UAH 0.169 and RSS 0.273. UAH annual means average −0.28 °C for 1979–1988 and +0.33 °C for 2016–2025. For the tropical middle troposphere 2426, 1979–2025: UAH 0.113 and RSS 0.157. ↩ ↩
- 7.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Summary for Policymakers.” Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report, 3–32. Cambridge University Press. 2021. The summary of the IPCC's 2021 physical-science assessment, approved line by line by government delegates. It states the consensus position on observed warming, its causes, and climate sensitivity.
- 7a.
Section A.4.2, page 11: “Ocean warming accounted for 91% of the heating in the climate system, with land warming, ice loss and atmospheric warming accounting for about 5%, 3% and 1%, respectively (high confidence).” ↩
- 7a.
- 8.
Forster, Piers et al. “The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity.” Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, 923–1054. Cambridge University Press. 2021. Chapter 7 of the IPCC's 2021 assessment, the chapter on the earth's heat budget, the size of each feedback, and climate sensitivity. It combines model, observational and ice-age evidence, and it sets out the energy-budget method and the "pattern effect" argument for why observed warming understates long-term sensitivity.
- 8a.
Section 7.5.2.1, page 996: “Accurate, in situ-based estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance can be made from around 2006 based on near-global ocean temperature observations from the ARGO array of autonomous profiling floats”. ↩
- 8a.
- 9.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. IAP ocean heat content, 0–2000 m, annual. 2026. The independent ocean-heat record of Lijing Cheng's group in Beijing, built with a different method for filling sparse data, 1940 to the present.
- 9a.
The least-squares gain over 2005–2025 is 11.5 zettajoules (1.15 × 10²² J) a year. ↩
- 9a.
- 10.
Cheng, Lijing et al. “Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024.” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 42(6). 2025. The yearly report by an international team led from the Chinese Academy of Sciences on the heat content of the upper 2,000 metres of ocean, from three independent data products, with trends since 1958.
- 10a.
Page 1095: “Since 2007, the upper 2000 m ocean warming rate has been 11.1 ± 1.1 ZJ yr−1, 10.1 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1, 12.3 ± 2.0 ZJ yr−1 for the IAP/CAS, Copernicus Marine, CIGAR-RT datasets respectively.” “The increase in the OHC rate in recent decades indicates a multidecadal acceleration of ocean warming”. ↩
- 10a.
- 11.
The NOAA gain 3, fitted by least squares, is 1.08 × 10²² J a year. Divided by the earth's surface area, 5.10 × 10¹⁴ m², and the seconds in a year, 3.156 × 10⁷, that is 0.67 W/m². The top 2,000 m of ocean is about 3.6 × 10¹⁴ m² × 2,000 m of water at 1,025 kg/m³ with a specific heat of 3,990 J/kg/°C, about 2.9 × 10²⁴ J per °C, so the 22.4 × 10²² J gained over 2005–2025 warmed it by about 0.08 °C. The same 10²² J warms the top 700 m by about 0.01 °C, which is CMI's figure. ↩ ↩
- 12.
Fetterer, F. et al. Sea Ice Index, version 4, Northern Hemisphere monthly extent, September. 2026. The standard satellite record of Arctic sea-ice extent and area from 1979, here for September, the month of the yearly minimum. ↩
- 12a.
September extent, million km²: 1980, 7.67; 2007, 4.27; 2012, 3.57; 2014, 5.22; 2020, 4.00; 2026, 4.81. ↩
- 12a.
- 13.
Least-squares trend of September extent 12: 1979–2007, −0.067 million km² a year; 2007–2026, −0.003 million km² a year with a standard error of 0.017, not distinguishable from zero. ↩
- 14.
Hausfather, Zeke et al. “Evaluating the impact of U.S. Historical Climatology Network homogenization using the U.S. Climate Reference Network.” Geophysical Research Letters 43:1695–1701. 2016. A test of NOAA's adjustments to the main US temperature network against the separate Climate Reference Network, a set of well-sited stations built from 2004 not to need adjustment. Two of the four authors are NOAA scientists who build the adjusted record.
- 14a.
Page 1695: “adjustments make both trends and monthly anomalies from USHCN stations much more similar to those of neighboring USCRN stations for the period from 2004 to 2015 when the networks overlap.” Page 1696: “However, the net effect of adjustments on the USHCN is quite large, effectively doubling the mean temperature trend over the past century compared to the raw observational data”. ↩ ↩
- 14b.
Page 1695: “The two largest trend effects are due to correcting time of observation changes and instrument changes from liquid-in-glass (LiG) to minimum-maximum temperature systems (MMTSs).” “Time of observation changes introduced a large cooling bias due to widespread observation time changes from afternoon to morning between 1950 and present.” ↩
- 14a.
- 15.
Menne, Matthew J. et al. “The U.S. Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature data, version 2.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:993–1007. 2009. NOAA's own description of how it adjusts the main US temperature network for changes in observing time, instruments and station moves, with the size and sign of each adjustment.
- 15a.
Page 996: “has artificially reduced the true temperature trend in the U.S. climate record”. The subject of the sentence is "the gradual conversion to morning observation times in the United States during the past 50 years". ↩
- 15b.
Page 1002: “the continued conversion to MMTS (and later Nimbus)—as well as the introduction of ASOS—have artificially (but unknown to SHAP) cooled maximum temperatures”. ↩
- 15a.
- 16.
Kennedy, John J. et al. “HadSST.4.0.1.0 Product User Guide.” Met Office Hadley Centre. Apr 29, 2022. The Met Office's guide to its sea-surface temperature record, the ocean half of HadCRUT, describing the corrections for how ships measured water temperature over 170 years and how large and uncertain they are.
- 16a.
Page 27: “The principal effect of adjustments to HadSST.4.0.1.0 and all of the other data sets is to reduce the long-term warming relative to the unadjusted data.” ↩
- 16a.
- 17.
Hausfather, Zeke. “Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records.” Carbon Brief. Jul 19, 2017. A non-technical explainer by a Berkeley Earth researcher comparing raw and adjusted global records from the main groups, separately for land and ocean.
- 17a.
“Over the full 1880-2016 period, the adjusted data actually warms more than 20% slower than the raw data.” “Adjustments increase the overall land temperature warming by 16% between 1880 and 2016.” ↩
- 17a.
- 18.
Rohde, Robert et al. “A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011.” Geoinformatics & Geostatistics: An Overview 1(1). 2013. Berkeley Earth's first published land temperature record, built with its own station selection and statistical method.
- 18a.
Section Abstract: “For the period post 1880, our estimate is similar to those previously reported by other groups, although we report smaller uncertainties.” ↩
- 18a.
- 19.
Bureau of Meteorology. ACORN-SAT analysis and results document, Report 3a for the Independent Peer Review of the ACORN-SAT data-set. 2011. The Australian weather bureau's account, for an outside review panel, of how it built its adjusted national daily temperature record.
- 19a.
Page 14: “The ACORN-SAT data-set includes data from 1910 or later.” “As discussed in section 1, the Stevenson screen only became near-universal in Australia from 1910 onwards, and most pre-1910 data cannot be considered homogeneous with Stevenson screen data.” ↩
- 19a.
- 20.
England, Mark R. et al. “Minimal Arctic sea ice loss in the last 20 years, consistent with internal climate variability.” Geophysical Research Letters. 2025. A study by mainstream polar researchers of the pause in Arctic sea-ice loss since 2005, testing it against large sets of climate-model runs. It finds the pause consistent with natural variability offsetting the human-forced decline.
- 20a.
Section Abstract: “Over the past two decades, Arctic sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005.” “The modeling evidence suggests that internal variability has substantially offset anthropogenically forced sea ice loss in recent decades.” ↩
- 20a.
- 21.
Met Office Hadley Centre; Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series, version 5.2.0.0. 2026. The British global surface temperature record, combining land stations from the Climatic Research Unit with the Hadley Centre's sea-surface temperatures, 1850 to the present, as anomalies from 1961–1990 with uncertainty limits. ↩
- 22.
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. GISTEMP v4, global land-ocean temperature index. 2026. NASA's global surface temperature record from 1880, as monthly and annual anomalies from 1951–1980. ↩
- 23.
Berkeley Earth. Global land and ocean temperature, annual summary. 2026. The independent Berkeley Earth global surface record from 1850, built with its own station selection and statistical method. This file runs to 2024. ↩
- 24.
Spencer, Roy W. et al. UAH global temperature, mid-troposphere, version 6.1, monthly anomalies. 2026. The same satellite record for the middle troposphere, by region, including the tropics from 20° S to 20° N. ↩
- 25.
Remote Sensing Systems. RSS lower troposphere temperature, version 4.0, monthly time series. 2026. The second satellite record of lower-atmosphere temperature, from the same instruments as UAH but with different processing, 1979 to the present. ↩
- 26.
Remote Sensing Systems. RSS middle troposphere temperature, version 4.0, monthly time series. 2026. The RSS record for the middle troposphere, by region, including the tropics. ↩