The Earliest Evidence for Life

Every claim of life older than about 3.5 billion years has a published rebuttal, usually written by geologists. And the Late Heavy Bombardment that made the time window look impossibly narrow probably never happened, which was settled by lunar farside samples returned in 2024. The no-time argument is in worse shape than its users realise.

Draft:  September 2026

"The lunar farside bombardment was not dominated by a cataclysmic spike but by a smooth long-term decline punctuated by later impacts." — Zhang and colleagues on the Chang'e-6 samples, 2026.1

"The LHB hypothesis should not be considered a credible maximum constraint on the age of LUCA." — the same paper that gives the earliest date for the last universal common ancestor, discarding the constraint that argument usually relies on.2

Summary

The popular creationist argument is that life appears in the rock record the moment the Earth cools, leaving no time for chemistry.  This article checks both halves:  when life actually appears, and how much time there was.

  • The earliest claims for life are the weakest, and the rebuttals come from geologists. Every claim older than about 3.5 billion years has a published challenge in a major journal.
  • The oldest claim of all has been quietly abandoned by the field, and it still circulates in apologetics and in popular science alike.
  • The robust floor is about 3.48 billion years. That is later than apologetics usually claims and still very early.
  • The bombardment that made the window look narrow probably did not happen as a spike. A 2016 analysis showed that argon loss from a declining impact flux manufactures a false 3.9-billion-year peak, and lunar farside samples returned in 2024 confirmed a smooth decline.3
  • The best current numbers give chemistry between 200 and 800 million years.4 Any text quoting a tighter figure is quoting the pre-2016 consensus.
  • There is an internal-consistency trap and this article states it. The strongest recent result on the other side, an early complex LUCA, is only reachable because its authors discarded the bombardment constraint. Using both at once argues against itself.
  • And "life arose fast, so life is easy" is a bad inference too. A Bayesian analysis shows rapid biogenesis "is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis."5 The same argument blocks the design inference in the other direction.

The verdict.  The no-time argument should be retired.  What survives is smaller and better:  the window is a few hundred million years, which is a long time for chemistry and a short time for the number of steps involved, and nobody can currently count the steps.

The popular apologetics argument is that life appears in the rock record almost the instant the earth cools, leaving no time for chemistry.  That argument is in worse shape than its users realise, and the damage comes from mainstream geology.

When life actually appears

The earliest claims are the weakest

Every claim for life older than about 3.5 billion years has a published rebuttal in a major journal, usually written by geologists rather than biologists.

  • The 4.1-billion-year Jack Hills zircon rests on a single grain out of more than ten thousand.
  • The 3.7-billion-year Isua stromatolites were rebutted in Nature two years after publication, and again in Earth and Planetary Science Letters two years after that.6
  • The 4.28-billion-year Nuvvuagittuq filaments sit in a rock whose age spans 3,750 to 4,290 million years depending on which isotope system is trusted.7

The oldest claim of all has quietly been abandoned by the field, and this article should say so rather than repeat it.  Mojzsis and colleagues reported isotopically light carbon in apatite inclusions in ~3,800-Myr Isua banded iron formation and a possibly older Akilia rock, and wrote that "no known abiotic process can explain the data."8  That claim did not survive van Zuilen's 2002 reanalysis, and it is now largely abandoned.  It still circulates in apologetics and in popular science alike.

That is not an isolated caution.  Purely inorganic chemistry can manufacture cell-shaped objects with organic walls, as a 2025 Miller-Urey experiment showed, and it can do so under conditions nobody would call biological.9

The oldest morphological fossils are contested and have been for thirty years.  William Schopf described eleven species of filamentous prokaryote in the ~3,465 Ma Apex chert in 1993 and it became the textbook oldest fossil.  Martin Brasier's group reinterpreted "the purported microfossil-like structure as secondary artefacts formed from amorphous graphite."10  Schopf answered in 2018 with ion-probe carbon isotopes that "vary systematically taxon to taxon from -31‰ to -39‰," which he says "confirm the biogenicity of the Apex fossils."11  No clean resolution exists.  Report it as contested, which is what it is.

The robust floor is about 3.48 billion years, in the Dresser Formation and Strelley Pool material.12  That is later than apologetics usually claims, and still very early.

How much time there was

The bombardment probably did not happen

The Late Heavy Bombardment — a sterilising impact spike around 3.9 billion years ago — was the standard reason the window looked impossibly narrow.

Boehnke and Harrison showed in 2016 that partial argon loss from a monotonically declining impact flux manufactures a fake 3.9-billion-year peak in the Apollo data.13  Zellner reached the same verdict from the sample record and wrote the sentence that matters:  "the timeline for the assembly of the first biomolecules has been lengthened."14

In 2026 the decisive test was run, and it went the same way.  Every Apollo sample came from the lunar nearside, which is precisely why the argument had never been settled — a nearside-only record cannot distinguish a global cataclysm from a local resurfacing history.  Chang'e-6 returned 1.935 kg from the farside in June 2024.  Yue and colleagues dated basalts at 2807 ± 3 Ma and norites at 4247 ± 5 Ma, refined the lunar chronology function, and found that the impact rate "supports a smooth decay instead of abrupt changes of the impactor flux at early times."3  A second group measured 28 single-clast 40Ar/39Ar ages on Chang'e-6 impact melt rocks spanning "∼4.33 to ∼1.13 billion years," and reported that "only two ages fall at 4.0 to 3.7 Ga" — the window a cataclysm should dominate.  Their conclusion:  "the lunar farside bombardment was not dominated by a cataclysmic spike but by a smooth long-term decline punctuated by later impacts."1

This is not settled — Bottke and Norman still defend a discrete episode, noting that the clustering appears in several independent isotope systems.15  And the precise statement matters:  what the farside data kills is the sharp 3.9-billion-year spike, not the idea of a distinct early post-accretion impactor population, which is a different claim.  But the article cannot use the narrow-window argument as though the bombardment were secure, because it is not.

The best current numbers give chemistry between 200 and 800 million years.4  Any apologetics text quoting a tighter figure is quoting the pre-2016 consensus.

The trap

There is an internal-consistency trap here that this article has to state explicitly, because it would otherwise walk into it.

The strongest recent result on the other side is Moody and colleagues' 2024 reconstruction of the last universal common ancestor:  LUCA at about 4.2 billion years ago, with a 2.75-megabase genome encoding roughly 2,657 proteins — a modern-sized prokaryote with a carbon-fixation pathway and a CRISPR-type immune system.2  The authors' own comment is that this "suggests that the process required a surprisingly short interval of geologic time."2

But that early date is only reachable because Moody's team threw out the bombardment window.  Their paper says so:  "the LHB hypothesis should not be considered a credible maximum constraint on the age of LUCA."2  An article that cites Moody for a compressed timeline while also citing the bombardment for a compressed timeline is arguing against itself.  This article uses Moody and drops the bombardment.

And "life arose fast, so life is easy" is also a bad inference

This cuts against the naturalist, and two mainstream physics papers make the case.  Lineweaver and Davis derived a constraint from rapid biogenesis but flagged the load-bearing assumption themselves.16  Spiegel and Turner attacked that assumption and found the conclusion "is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors."5

Note carefully what that does and does not establish.  It kills the inference from early life to easy chemistry.  It does not establish that abiogenesis is improbable, and the same Bayesian argument that blocks "life is common" equally blocks "life is rare."  An apologist who cites Spiegel and Turner as evidence for design has made the identical error in the opposite direction.

The claims, audited

Claim Verdict
"Life appears at 3.8 or 4.1 or 4.28 billion years" All contested, and the oldest is abandoned by the field
"There was no time for chemistry" Overstated. The best numbers give 200 to 800 million years
"The Late Heavy Bombardment sterilised the Earth at 3.9 Ga" Probably an artefact. Argon loss from a declining flux, and the farside samples show a smooth decline
"Cell-shaped objects in old rocks are fossils" Not necessarily. Inorganic chemistry makes cell-shaped objects with organic walls
"The oldest microfossils are settled" Contested for thirty years, and no clean resolution exists
"Life arose fast, so life must be easy" Bad inference, and mainstream physicists say so
"An early complex LUCA compresses the window" True only if you also discard the bombardment, which is what its authors did

Objections

1. You are conceding the whole argument to deep time

The article accepts the mainstream dating, and this project's audits of dating methods are separate work.  What it will not do is run an argument whose factual premise, the bombardment spike, was overturned by lunar samples in 2024.  Retiring an argument that a geologist can dismantle from memory is not a concession.  It is housekeeping.

2. If the earliest fossils are contested, so is the whole record

The contest is about the oldest and hardest cases, which is where it belongs.  A 3.48-billion-year floor is not in dispute in the same way.  A reader should notice that the rebuttals here are mostly written by geologists against biologists' claims, which is the field working as it should.

3. A few hundred million years is nothing for chemistry this hard

That is the version of the argument that survives, and the article says so.  What it does not do is put a number on how many steps are needed, because nobody can.  Without that number the window cannot be called too short, only finite.

4. Abiotic mimics mean the early record proves nothing

They mean the early record needs isotopic and geochemical support rather than shape alone, which is exactly what the disputes above are about.  A 2025 experiment produced cell-shaped objects with organic walls under conditions nobody would call biological, and its authors draw the warning themselves.

5. Rapid biogenesis is evidence of design

It is not, and the reason is the same one that blocks the naturalist's inference.  With one sample and a strong selection effect, an early origin is consistent with almost any underlying probability.  An apologist quoting Spiegel and Turner for design has made the identical error in the opposite direction.

What this article claims, and what it does not

It claims that every claim for life older than about 3.5 billion years is contested in print, that the oldest has been abandoned, that the robust floor is about 3.48 billion years, that the sharp bombardment spike is probably an artefact of argon loss and is contradicted by farside samples, that the available window is a few hundred million years, and that fast appearance licenses no inference in either direction.

It does not claim that no early bombardment occurred;  what the farside data removes is the sharp spike, not a distinct early impactor population, and Bottke and Norman still defend a discrete episode.  It does not settle the Apex chert dispute, which has no clean resolution.  Those gaps are listed in the literature review.

Sources


  1. 1.

    Zhang, W. F. et al.  “The bombardment history on the lunar farside revealed by 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of Chang'e-6 impact melt rocks.”  Science Advances 12(30):eaee8718.  Jul 24, 2026.  “consistent with the recent dating of the Apollo basin.”  A 2026 paper that dates impact melt rocks from the lunar farside by 40Ar/39Ar geochronology, a method that dates a rock from the argon its minerals release when heated.  Three of its melt clasts date to ~4.16 Ga, which the abstract calls consistent with the recent dating of the Apollo basin.  Nobody appears yet to have written the reconciliation between these farside results and Bottke and Norman's hybrid model, and the article does not attempt one.  The article cites it for the farside result that the bombardment was not a spike. ↩ ↩

  2. 2.

    Moody, Edmund R. R. et al.  “The nature of the last universal common ancestor and its impact on the early Earth system.”  Nature Ecology & Evolution 8:1654–1666.  2024.  “support for the presence of 19 class 1 CRISPR–Cas effector protein families in the genome of LUCA…  This is consistent with the idea that cellular life was already involved in an arms race with viruses at the time of LUCA.”  “from 3.94 Ga to 4.52 Ga,”.  A 2024 study that dates the last universal common ancestor (LUCA), the common ancestor of all living cells, to about 4.2 Ga (4.09–4.33 Ga) by comparing gene duplicates, with the clock calibrated on microbial fossils and isotope records.  It reconstructs a LUCA genome of 2.75 Mb (2.49–2.99 Mb) encoding 2,657 proteins (2,451–2,855), with a Wood–Ljungdahl carbon-fixation pathway and immune genes against viruses.  The 4.09–4.33 Ga range comes from the preferred relaxed-clock models, not the total uncertainty.  The authors' own caveat is that their composite age runs from 3.94 Ga to 4.52 Ga, a 580-Myr spread wider than the window it is used to constrain.  A recent survey by Bell, Elizabeth A., and Gregory P. Fournier, Astrobiology 26 (2026): 633-643, calls the method "challenging and highly uncertain."  The article uses it as the strongest recent result for an early LUCA, and notes that this early date depends on dropping the bombardment window. ↩

    1. 2a.

      Section Discussion:  “How evolution proceeded from the origin of life to early communities at the time of LUCA remains an open question, but the inferred age of LUCA (~4.2 Ga) compared with the origin of the Earth and Moon suggests that the process required a surprisingly short interval of geologic time.” ↩

    2. 2b.

      Section Methods discussion:  “Some previous studies have placed a younger maximum constraint on the age of LUCA based on the assumption that life could not have survived Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) (~3.7–3.9 billion years ago (Ga)).  However, the LHB hypothesis is extrapolated and scaled from the Moon's impact record, the interpretation of which has been questioned in terms of the intensity, duration and even the veracity of an LHB episode.  Thus, the LHB hypothesis should not be considered a credible maximum constraint on the age of LUCA.  We used soft-uniform bounds, with the maximum-age bound based on the time of the Moon-forming impact (4,510 million years ago (Ma) ± 10 Myr), which would have effectively sterilized Earth's precursors…”  Their reference for the questioned interpretation is Boehnke and Harrison 2016. ↩ ↩

  3. 3.

    Yue, Zongyu et al.  “Lunar chronology model with the Chang'e-6 farside samples and implications for the early impact history.”  Science Advances 12:eady9265.  2026.  Their framing of why the farside mattered is the important part:  “previous samples were from the lunar nearside and the radiometric ages of those samples that can be associated with particular surfaces are <4.0 billion years.”  A 2026 paper on the first rock samples returned from the far side of the Moon, 1.935 kilograms collected in June 2024.  The team dated local basalts at 2807 ± 3 Ma and norites at 4247 ± 5 Ma, and used the ages to refine the lunar chronology function, the model that links crater counts to ages.  The norites likely date the South Pole-Aitken basin.  The article uses it because the impact rate it derives falls smoothly rather than in abrupt spikes at early times. ↩ ↩

  4. 4.

    Pearce, Ben K. D. et al.  “Constraining the Time Interval for the Origin of Life on Earth.”  Astrobiology 18:343–364.  2018.  “The habitability boundary could be as early as 4.5 Ga, the earliest possible estimate of the time at which Earth had a stable crust and hydrosphere, or as late as 3.9 Ga, the end of the period of heavy meteorite bombardment.  The lack of consensus on whether there was a late heavy meteorite bombardment that was significant enough to prevent life is the largest uncertainty in estimating the time of the habitability boundary.  The biosignature boundary is more closely constrained.  Evidence from carbon isotope ratios and stromatolite fossils both point to a time close to 3.7 Ga.  Life must have emerged in the interval between these two boundaries.  The time taken for life to appear could, therefore, be within 200 Myr or as long as 800 Myr.”  A review by four authors at McMaster University that combines geology, astronomy and biology to set two boundaries: the earliest that Earth could have been habitable, and the earliest clear evidence of life (a biosignature).  They put the biosignature boundary near 3.7 Ga, partly on the Nutman 2016 Isua stromatolites, but their preprint is dated 28 August 2018, before Allwood et al. appeared in Nature on 16 October 2018, so they did not have that rebuttal.  They say the 3.7 Ga boundary still stands on Rosing 1999 and Ohtomo 2014 independently, but half its support has since been contested.  The article uses the 200 to 800 million year window as the current figure, which replaced tighter numbers from before 2016.  Mirror:  arXiv ↩ ↩

  5. 5.

    Spiegel, David S., and Edwin L. Turner.  “Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth.”  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:395–400.  2012.  “We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of Bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability.  Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be common in the Universe if early-Earth-like conditions are, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors.  Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage… would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the Universe.”  “if evolution requires 3.5 Gyr for life to evolve from the simplest forms to intelligent, questioning beings, then we had to find ourselves on a planet where life arose relatively early, regardless of the value of λ.”  “their conclusion that q cannot be too small and thus that life should not be too rare in the Universe is not a consequence of the evidence of the early emergence of life on the Earth but almost only of their particular parameterization of the problem.”  A Bayesian statistical analysis by two astrophysicists that asks what the early appearance of life on Earth says about the odds of abiogenesis, the start of life from non-living matter.  A Bayesian analysis weighs the evidence against a starting assumption, the prior, and here the prior decides the result: with plausible uninformative priors the timing is consistent with an arbitrarily low chance of abiogenesis, so the timing data are uninformative rather than showing that abiogenesis is improbable.  It also says Lineweaver and Davis's conclusion comes from their chosen parameterization, not from the evidence.  The article uses it against the inference that quick emergence makes life easy, and says the same argument also blocks the design inference in the other direction. ↩ ↩

  6. 6.

    Allwood, Abigail C. et al.  “Reassessing evidence of life in 3,700-million-year-old rocks of Greenland.”  Nature 563:241–244.  2018.  “Here we report new research that shows a non-biological, post-depositional origin for the structures…  the 'stromatolites' are more plausibly interpreted as part of an assemblage of deformation structures formed in carbonate-altered metasediments long after burial.”  A reanalysis of structures in 3.7-billion-year-old rocks from Isua in Greenland, arguing that the "stromatolites" (layered structures that microbial mats can build) formed by deformation of altered rock long after burial, not from microbes.  It rebuts Nutman, Allen P., et al., "Rapid emergence of life shown by discovery of 3,700-million-year-old microbial structures," Nature 537 (2016): 535–538.  Two of its authors have their own records on early life: Minik Rosing published the 1999 Isua carbon-isotope evidence for life, and Abigail Allwood established the 3.43-billion-year Strelley Pool stromatolite reef in 2006, so neither is a sceptic of early life.  A reappraisal by Zawaski, Michael J., et al., "Reappraisal of purported ca. 3.7 Ga stromatolites from the Isua Supracrustal Belt," Earth and Planetary Science Letters 545 (2020): 116409, reinforced the rebuttal, but Nutman's group has not conceded, see Precambrian Research 331 (2019): 105347, and Earth-Science Reviews 262 (2025): 105034.  The article uses it to say that the Isua stromatolites were rebutted in Nature two years after publication. ↩

  7. 7.

    Dodd, Matthew S. et al.  “Evidence for early life in Earth's oldest hydrothermal vent precipitates.”  Nature 543:60–64.  2017.  “Here we report putative fossilised microorganisms at least 3770 and possibly 4290 million years old in ferruginous sedimentary rocks…  from the Nuvvuagittuq belt in Canada.”  “there is still no consensus on the exact age of the NSB, but nonetheless, it is at least 3770 Ma and possibly as old as 4290 Myr.”  A Nature report of putative microfossils, micron-scale haematite (iron oxide) tubes and filaments in iron-rich rocks from the Nuvvuagittuq belt in Canada, which the authors read as biological, citing isotopically light carbon.  The age depends on which isotope system is trusted: 146Sm-142Nd on metabasalts gives the 4,290 Ma figure, and U-Pb on detrital zircons gives 3,750-3,780 Ma (Cates, N. L., et al., Earth and Planetary Science Letters 362 (2013): 283–293).  The discoverers' own 2022 follow-up hedges: "If biological in origin, these filaments might have affinities with modern descendants;  however, if abiotic, they could indicate complex prebiotic forms on early Earth" (Papineau, Dominic, et al., Science Advances 8 (2022): eabm2296).  Two further problems belong with this claim.  Lan, Z., et al., Precambrian Research 377 (2022): 106728, dates the fossil-bearing jasper to ~2,500 Ma, and McMahon, Sean, "Earth's earliest and deepest purported fossils may be iron-mineralized chemical gardens," Proceedings of the Royal Society B 286 (2019): 20192410, reproduces the same morphologies abiotically in a beaker.  The article uses it for the age range of the filaments, which depends on the isotope system trusted. ↩

  8. 8.

    Mojzsis, S. J. et al.  “Evidence for life on Earth before 3,800 million years ago.”  Nature 384:55–59.  1996.  “have experienced intense metamorphism, which would have obliterated any fragile microfossils contained therein.”  A 1996 paper that looked for life through carbon isotopes rather than fossils.  The authors' own framing of why they went looking for isotopes rather than fossils is that rocks older than 3,500 Myr have been metamorphosed so intensely that any fragile microfossils would have been destroyed.  The rebuttal is van Zuilen, Lepland and Arrhenius, Nature 418 (2002): 627–630.  The article uses it as the oldest claim of life, which the field has largely abandoned and which it says should not be repeated. ↩

  9. 9.

    Jenewein, Christian et al.  “Concomitant formation of protocells and prebiotic compounds under a plausible early Earth atmosphere.”  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(2):e2413816122.  2025.  A laboratory experiment that reran a Miller-Urey style spark experiment for two weeks in glass reactors, using a gas mixture meant to mimic the early Earth.  It found that a film of hydrogen cyanide polymer forms on borosilicate glass whenever water is present, and that hollow, cell-like "protocells" grow from it by bubbling, with no living thing involved.  The article uses it to show that chemistry alone can make cell-shaped objects with organic walls.  Two later corrections are administrative: PNAS 122(9):e2500712122 corrects a production error in the author affiliations, and 122(14):e2505069122 adds a European Research Council funding acknowledgment.  Neither touches a number or a result, so the paper can be used normally.  The "protocells" are polymers of hydrogen cyanide precipitated at a water-gas interface, not lipid compartments, and the article does not treat them as membranes. ↩

  10. 10.

    Brasier, Martin D. et al.  “Questioning the evidence for Earth's oldest fossils.”  Nature 416:76–81.  2002.  “are nearly a billion years older than putative cyanobacterial biomarkers, genomic arguments for cyanobacteria, an oxygenic atmosphere and any comparably diverse suite of microfossils.”  A critique of the evidence for Earth's oldest fossils.  Its alternative account is a non-biological synthesis of amorphous graphite in a hydrothermal setting, through Fischer-Tropsch-type synthesis (a chemical route that builds carbon compounds from simple gases).  The timing point in the quotation is the strongest part of their case, and it is not an isotope argument at all.  The article cites it as the reinterpretation of the purported Apex microfossils, which it reports as contested. ↩

  11. 11.

    Schopf, J. William et al.  “SIMS analyses of the oldest known assemblage of microfossils document their taxon-correlated carbon isotope compositions.”  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115:53–58.  2018.  A carbon isotope study of the Apex chert microfossils, using SIMS (an ion probe that measures isotopes in tiny spots).  Eleven specimens of five taxa were measured, in a thin section from the same rock sample described in 1993.  It answers the biogenicity question by isotope while leaving Brasier's structural objection where it was.  The article cites it as Schopf's answer to Brasier and reports the question as contested. ↩

  12. 12.

    Westall, Frances.  “What the earliest evidence for life tells us about the early evolution of the biosphere.”  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 380:20240106.  2025.  “the abundance of biosignatures as of the Palaeoarchaean, and as early as 3.48 Ga, suggests a diverse community including chemotrophs and phototrophs.”  On Isua, the review says:  “the combined evidence of possible morphology, carbon and iron isotopes, and elemental composition… of remnant carbonaceous matter is suggestive of the presence of life, although not definitive because of the various possible alternative abiotic sources for each potential biosignature.”  On Nuvvuagittuq, it says:  “Possibly dating from the Hadean (4.3 Ga), but most likely of Eoarchaean age (3.7 Ga)… which has a 2.5 Gyr hydrothermal overprint.”  It also flags a hazard that the article says nobody discusses:  “Westall & Folk [79] noted the presence of recent and recently fossilised phototrophic endoliths in these sediments that could confuse measurements.”  A review by Frances Westall of the CNRS in Orléans, France, of the earliest evidence for life and what it says about the early biosphere (the living system of the planet).  The papers behind its 3.48 Ga floor are Djokic, Tara, et al., Nature Communications 8 (2017): 15263, for the Dresser Formation hot springs, and Baumgartner, Raphael J., et al., Geology 47 (2019): 1039–1043, for sulfidized organic matter in drill core below the weathering profile, with δ13C_OM = -29.6‰ ± 0.3‰.  Its accepted 3.43 Ga reef is Allwood, Abigail C., et al., Nature 441 (2006): 714–718.  The article uses it for the robust floor of about 3.48 billion years, which it notes is later than apologetics usually claims and still very early.  Mirror:  PMC ↩

  13. 13.

    Boehnke, Patrick, and T. Mark Harrison.  “Illusory Late Heavy Bombardments.”  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:10802–10806.  2016.  From the abstract:  “Our results show that plateau histograms tend to yield age peaks, even in those cases where the input impact curve did not contain such a spike, in part due to the episodic nature of lunar crust or parent body formation.  Restated, monotonically declining impact histories yield apparent age peaks that could be misinterpreted as LHB-type events.”  From the significance statement:  “Thus, impacts may have played a minimal role in terrestrial habitability, early Earth dynamics, and the formation of Hadean zircons.”  From the Summary, the authors' own limit, which the article keeps:  “while the most widely used evidence to support the LHB hypothesis yields unreliable impact histories, it does not preclude the existence of such events.”  A modelling study of Apollo moon rocks, which tests whether the age cluster near 3.9 billion years, cited as evidence for a violent early bombardment, can arise from argon loss in a steadily declining impact record.  The authors model how argon leaks out of heated samples and show that a falling impact rate produces such a peak.  The article uses it to say that the 3.9-billion-year peak is a fake produced by the method, and it keeps the authors' own admission that the old evidence does not rule out such events. ↩

  14. 14.

    Zellner, Nicolle E. B.  “Cataclysm No More: New Views on the Timing and Delivery of Lunar Impactors.”  Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres 47:261–280.  2017.  “Importantly, it is demonstrated that most evidence supports a prolonged lunar (and thus, terrestrial) bombardment from ~4.2 to 3.4 Ga and not a cataclysmic spike at ~3.9 Ga.”  “The long-held idea of a 'lunar cataclysm' at ~3.9 Ga is being replaced by the idea of an extended lunar bombardment from ~4.2 Ga to 3.5 Ga.  While the effects of this prolonged bombardment on the evolution and development of life on Earth have yet to be closely investigated, the timeline for the assembly of the first biomolecules has been lengthened.”  “Thus, impact frustration and/or sterilization are unlikely, and a cool Earth, hospitable to the development of biomolecules via endogenous and exogenous processes, may have provided the necessary temperature conditions required for biomolecules to be stable.”  A review by Nicolle E. B. Zellner of the physics department at Albion College, which goes through the lunar sample, crater and dynamical evidence.  It concludes that the bombardment was a long decline from about 4.2 to 3.4 billion years ago rather than a spike at 3.9 billion years, and that the timeline for the first biomolecules is lengthened as a result.  Its implications section argues that impact frustration or sterilization is unlikely, and that a cool Earth may have supplied the temperatures biomolecules needed.  The article quotes the author's own sentence that the timeline has been lengthened. ↩

  15. 15.

    Bottke, William F., and Marc D. Norman.  “The Late Heavy Bombardment.”  Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 45:619–647.  2017.  “the excellent agreement obtained by multiple techniques provides confidence that the ages are meaningful.”  A review of the Late Heavy Bombardment, the proposed burst of impacts on the early Moon and Earth, by William F. Bottke of Southwest Research Institute and Marc D. Norman of the Australian National University.  It says lunar melt rocks and meteorite shock ages point to a discrete episode of elevated impact flux between about 3.5 and 4.0 to 4.2 billion years ago, and it calls a hybrid model with discrete early and later impactor populations the most parsimonious solution.  The authors defend the discrete episode because the age clustering appears in Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd and U-Pb as well as 40Ar/39Ar.  The article cites it because Bottke and Norman still defend a discrete episode, and it says the question is not settled. ↩

  16. 16.

    Lineweaver, Charles H., and Tamara M. Davis.  “Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the Universe?”  Astrobiology 2:293–304.  2002.  From the abstract:  “We find that on such planets, older than ∼ 1 Gyr, the probability of biogenesis is > 13% at the 95% confidence level.  This quantifies an important term in the Drake Equation but does not necessarily mean that life is common in the Universe.”  “Although we correct the analysis for the fact that biogenesis is a prerequisite for our existence, our result depends on the plausible assumption that rapid biogenesis is not such a prerequisite.”  A statistical analysis in Astrobiology that tests the argument that the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggests life is common in the universe.  Using the timing of life on Earth, the authors estimate the chance of life starting on planets like Earth, older than about 1 billion years, and find it is more than 13% at 95% confidence.  That term feeds the Drake Equation, a formula for estimating how many communicating civilizations exist, but the authors say it does not necessarily mean that life is common.  The load-bearing assumption is flagged by the authors themselves, in their own list of caveats.  The article uses it because the authors themselves flag the assumption their result depends on. ↩