A statement enters this registry if and only if it meets all three tests:
The rule was fixed before any scoring and is applied to every candidate, including candidates that favor the Latter-day Saint side. Candidates that fail a test are listed in the exclusions table with the reason.
| Score | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Fulfilled | The described event happened, after the record's date, substantially as stated. |
| Partly fulfilled | Some named elements happened and others did not. |
| Failed | A stated deadline passed unmet, or the described event did not happen and can no longer happen as stated. |
| Open | No deadline, and the event could still occur. |
| Not scorable | No deadline and no content specific enough to falsify. |
Prior = how surprising the statement would have been to a well-informed person on the date it was made. Low / medium / high. A fulfilled prediction with a low prior is worth almost nothing.
Updated 2026-08-08. The six entries this file originally listed as unscored were settled from primary sources in the citation-layer session and are now scored in the article. 29 entries scored: 6 fulfilled, 3 partly fulfilled, 11 failed, 2 open, 7 not scorable. 2 entries excluded by rule 1, and the exclusions are stated twice in the article rather than dropped.
Three of the six fulfilled entries are self-fulfilling — the people who received the instruction are the people who carried it out — and the article says so at every point where the totals appear. The six newly scored entries and their sources: D&C 87:2 on Great Britain (U.S. State Department, Office of the Historian); D&C 111:2 on the Salem converts (Joseph Smith Papers historical introduction, quoting Erastus Snow's journal); D&C 114:1 on David W. Patten, failed because he was killed 25 Oct 1838 (Joseph Smith Papers); D&C 118:5 on Far West, fulfilled (Church History Topics, "Far West"); D&C 118:4 and 6 on the four apostles, partly fulfilled because John E. Page's crossing could not be confirmed (Joseph Smith Papers); and D&C 124:59 on the Nauvoo House, not scorable for want of a deadline.
The single sharpest result changed direction. The earlier draft claimed that every item carrying an explicit deadline failed. That is no longer true: D&C 118:5 named a place and a calendar date nine and a half months ahead and was met. The article now reports both results — that the five time-driven deadlines all failed, and that the one deadline the recipients could act on themselves was kept.
Missing from the planned registry and still to be added: the 1832–33 Zion's Camp recruitment numbers (D&C 103:30–34) against the actual muster; D&C 112 on Thomas B. Marsh; D&C 132 promises to Emma Smith; D&C 65:2 on the stone filling the earth; and D&C 121–123 from Liberty Jail.
| # | Item and exact wording (abridged where marked …) | Date | Source opened | Authority | Conditional? | Deadline | Outcome | Prior | Standard LDS answer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kinderhook plates. Clayton journal, 1 May 1843: "President J. has translated a portion and says they contain the history of the person with whom they were found, and he was a descendant of Ham through the loins of Pharaoh, king of Egypt…" | 1843 | Ensign, Aug. 1981 (Kimball), quoting Clayton | Clerk's journal, one remove from JS | No | None stated | Failed — plates were 1843 forgeries (Northwestern/Chicago Historical Society tests, 1980–81) | — | Bradley & Ashurst-McGee 2020: JS attempted a secular comparison using the Egyptian Alphabet book, not a revelatory translation, and abandoned it |
| 2 | Greek Psalter. Caswall: "it ain't Greek at all; except, perhaps, a few words… It is a dictionary of Egyptian Hieroglyphics." | 18 Apr. 1842 | Caswall, The City of the Mormons (1842), Gutenberg text | Single hostile account, published within 2 months | No | None | Not scorable — one uncorroborated hostile source | — | Caswall is hostile, uncorroborated, and his two tellings differ |
| 3 | Joseph Smith Translation depends on Adam Clarke's commentary | 1830–33 | Wilson & Wayment 2017 précis (Wayback); Jackson, Interpreter 40 (2020) | Scholarly dispute among faithful scholars | n/a | n/a | Not scorable — live dispute; "hundreds of parallels" never published as a list | — | Jackson: none of the examples can be traced to Clarke; and D&C 88:118 commends "the best books" anyway |
| 4 | D&C 87:1 "the wars that will shortly come to pass begining at the rebellion of South Carolina" | 25 Dec. 1832 | JSP, Revelation Book 2, pp. 32–33 | Canon | No | None | Fulfilled — South Carolina seceded first; Fort Sumter Apr. 1861 | Low–medium | Twenty-eight years' lead time |
| 5 | D&C 87:1 "wars that will shortly come to pass" | 25 Dec. 1832 | as above | Canon | No | "shortly" | Failed — nullification crisis settled in ten weeks; war came 28 years later | — | "Shortly" is God's timescale |
| 6 | D&C 87:1 "which will eventually terminate in the death and missery of many souls" | 25 Dec. 1832 | as above | Canon | No | None | Fulfilled | Low | — |
| 7 | D&C 87:2–3 "war will be poured out upon all Nations begining at this place"; Britain and others drawn in | 25 Dec. 1832 | as above | Canon | No | None | Failed — no European power entered; Britain never recognized the Confederacy | — | Long-range reading |
| 8 | D&C 87:4 "Slaves shall rise up against there Masters who shall be Martialed and disaplined for war" | 25 Dec. 1832 | as above | Canon | No | None | Partly — ~179,000 Black soldiers in the US Army, ~19,000 in the Navy (National Archives), many formerly enslaved; but no slave insurrection against masters | Low | The Black regiments are the fulfilment |
| 9 | D&C 87:5 "the remnants who are left of the land will martial themselves… and shall vex the Gentiles with a soar vexation" | 25 Dec. 1832 | as above; JSP footnote on "remnants" and JS's 4 Jan. 1833 letter to Noah C. Saxton | Canon | No | None | Failed — the post-war decades were the military defeat of the Plains nations | — | Still future |
| 10 | D&C 87:6 "untill the consumption decreed hath made a full end of all Nations" | 25 Dec. 1832 | as above | Canon | No | None | Open — millennial language, no deadline | — | Still future |
| 11 | D&C 130:13 "It may probably arise through the slave question." | 2 Apr. 1843 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 130 | Canon | Hedged ("probably") | None | Fulfilled | Low–medium | — |
| 12 | D&C 84:4–5 "which temple shall be reared in this generation… this generation shall not all pass away until an house shall be built unto the Lord" | 22–23 Sept. 1832 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 84 | Canon (in the 1835 D&C) | No | "this generation" | Failed — no temple on the dedicated lot; the generation is dead | — | "Generation" is elastic; and D&C 124:49–51 released the command when enemies hindered it |
| 13 | D&C 97:19–20 "surely Zion cannot fall, neither be moved out of her place" | 2 Aug. 1833 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 97 | Canon | Yes — 97:25–26 states the condition | None | Failed — expelled from Jackson County within about three months | — | The condition at 97:25–26 was not met |
| 14 | D&C 101:17–18 "Zion shall not be moved out of her place… they that remain, and are pure in heart, shall return" | 16–17 Dec. 1833 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 101 | Canon | No | None | Open | — | Still future |
| 15 | D&C 101:20 "there is none other place appointed than that which I have appointed… for the work of the gathering of my saints" | 16–17 Dec. 1833 | as above | Canon | No | None | Partly — Independence is still the designated future site, but the actual gathering went to Kirtland, Far West, Nauvoo, and the Great Basin, and members are now taught to build in their own lands | — | The verse concerns the New Jerusalem, not every gathering place |
| 16 | D&C 103:15–20 "the redemption of Zion must needs come by power… Mine angels shall go up before you, and also my presence, and in time ye shall possess the goodly land" | 24 Feb. 1834 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 103 | Canon | No | None explicit | Failed — Zion's Camp did not redeem Zion; D&C 105 stood the expedition down | — | D&C 105:2–10: the people's transgression postponed it |
| 17 | D&C 105:9 "mine elders should wait for a little season for the redemption of Zion" | 22 June 1834 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 105 | Canon | Yes | None | Not scorable — "a little season" has run 192 years with no deadline | — | God's timescale |
| 18 | D&C 111:4 "its wealth pertaining to gold and silver shall be yours" | 6 Aug. 1836 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 111; JSP historical intro | Canon | No | "in due time" | Failed — no treasure obtained | — | The real treasure was people (v. 2) |
| 19 | D&C 111:5 "Concern not yourselves about your debts, for I will give you power to pay them." | 6 Aug. 1836 | as above | Canon | No | None | Failed — Kirtland Safety Society collapsed in 1837; JS fled Kirtland Jan. 1838 | — | Long-range; the Church did eventually become solvent |
| 20 | Discourse, 14 Feb. 1835: "the coming of the Lord, which was nigh, even fifty six years, should wind up the scene" | 14 Feb. 1835 | JSP, Minute Book 1, p. 147, in Warren Cowdery's hand, copied not before 25 Feb. 1836 | Individual public sermon, clerk's copy | No | 1891 | Failed | — | D&C 130:14–17: JS explicitly said he could not decide what the 85-years revelation meant |
| 21 | D&C 130:15 "Joseph, my son, if thou livest until thou art eighty-five years old, thou shalt see the face of the Son of Man" | 2 Apr. 1843 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 130 | Canon | Yes — "if thou livest" | 1890–91 | Not scorable — JS died at 38, so the condition never obtained | — | Explicitly conditional and explicitly uninterpreted by JS himself |
| 22 | D&C 89:18–21 health promises ("health in their navel and marrow to their bones… run and not be weary… the destroying angel shall pass by them") | 27 Feb. 1833 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 89 | Canon | Yes — "all saints who remember to keep and do these sayings" | None | Not scorable — a conditional promise, not a prediction of an event | — | Later medical vindication of the tobacco and alcohol counsel |
| 23 | D&C 117:12 Oliver Granger "his name shall be had in sacred remembrance from generation to generation, forever and ever" | 8 July 1838 | churchofjesuschrist.org, D&C 117 | Canon | No | None | Not scorable — "sacred remembrance" has no falsifiable content | — | — |
Totals: 3 fulfilled, 2 partly fulfilled, 10 failed, 2 open, 6 not scorable.
Note the concentration: all three fulfilled entries (4, 6, 11) belong to one prediction cluster, made during a national crisis that a newspaper reader was already tracking. And every entry carrying an explicit deadline (5, 12, 20) failed.
These meet all three inclusion rules. Their outcomes must be settled from primary sources before scoring.
| Item | Date | Question to settle |
|---|---|---|
| D&C 87:3 "the Southern States will call on other Nations even the Nation of Great Britian" | 1832 | Confederate diplomacy toward Britain — how far does "call on" reach, and what is the documentary record? |
| D&C 111:2 "many people in this city, whom I will gather out in due time" | 1836 | Erastus Snow's Salem mission of 1841–42: baptisms, and the fate of the Salem branch |
| D&C 114:1 David W. Patten "may perform a mission unto me next spring" | 11 Apr. 1838 | Was Patten alive in spring 1839? (Battle of Crooked River, Oct. 1838) |
| D&C 118:5 the Twelve to take leave "in the city of Far West, on the twenty-sixth day of April next, on the building-spot of my house" | 8 July 1838 | Did it happen, and on what evidence? Note it is self-fulfillable by design |
| D&C 118:4, 6 the four named apostles to "depart to go over the great waters" | 8 July 1838 | Did John E. Page cross? |
| D&C 124:56–60 Nauvoo House, "let my servant Joseph and his seed after him have place in that house, from generation to generation, forever and ever" | 19 Jan. 1841 | Completion status; Emma Smith's later residence in the building |
| Item | Reason |
|---|---|
| The Rocky Mountains prophecy, 6 Aug. 1842 | Rule 1 not established. The earliest surviving record must be dated before the 1846–47 migration; that dating was not verified. Usually cited for Joseph Smith. |
| The Stephen A. Douglas prophecy, 18 May 1843 | Rule 1 not established. Earliest surviving record not dated. Usually cited for Joseph Smith. |
Conclusion: the corpus contains no fulfilled prediction with a genuinely low prior.