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<!-- BLOCK pedigrees -->
<div class="clock-scroll" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Scrollable pedigree rates and ages">
<table class="ruled small wide clock-table" id="clock-pedigrees">
<thead>
<tr><th rowspan="3">Study</th><th colspan="4" class="r-whole">Whole genome<small>1–16,569 · 16,569 bp</small></th><th rowspan="3">Count / method</th><th rowspan="3">Trans­missions</th><th rowspan="3">Pedigrees</th><th rowspan="3">Sapiens age</th><th rowspan="3">All-three age baseline</th><th rowspan="3">Method and caveats</th></tr>
<tr><th colspan="3" class="r-cr">Control region<small>16,024–576 · 1,122 bp</small></th><th rowspan="2" class="r-coding">Coding region<small>577–16,023 · 15,447 bp</small></th></tr>
<tr><th class="r-hvr1">HVR-I<small>16,024–16,383 · 360 bp</small></th><th class="r-hvr2">HVR-II<small>57–372 · 316 bp</small></th><th class="r-rest">Rest<small>16,384–56, 373–576 · 446 bp</small></th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-1996">Howell 1996</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.0227</b><small>2 / 88 · 1,194 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>New germline mutations, both heteroplasmic (HVR-II nt 152 and 195), plus one somatic</small></td><td>88</td><td>1 LHON pedigree, 45 members</td><td class="age">17 ka</td><td class="age">29.5 ka</td><td>Opened the pedigree-rate literature:  the “ten times faster” claim began with two events in one disease pedigree.  The primary sequenced nt 16024–16569 and 1–648 (about 1,194 bp), the control region plus 72 adjoining coding bases.  Howell 2003 restates 2/88;  Sigurðardóttir 2000 says 2/81.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Bendall 1996</a><small>as tabulated by Howell 2003</small></td><td class="r-hvr1"><b>0.0111</b><small>4 / 360 · 360 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>Newly arising substitutions, heteroplasmic or homoplasmic, as Howell pooled them</small></td><td>360</td><td>Not given in Howell’s table</td><td class="age">17.7 ka</td><td class="age">32.8 ka</td><td>Howell 2003 Table 2:  4/360, divergence rate 0.99 (99.5% interval 0.14–3.35) per site per Myr, computed over Howell’s 1,122-bp convention at 20-year generations.  HVR-1 only.  The exact window was not checked;  the age uses the 360-bp HVR-I window.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Mumm 1997</a><small>as tabulated by Howell 2003</small></td><td class="r-hvr1"><b>0.0169</b><small>1 / 59 · 360 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>Newly arising substitutions, heteroplasmic or homoplasmic, as Howell pooled them</small></td><td>59</td><td>Not given in Howell’s table</td><td class="age">11.6 ka</td><td class="age">21.5 ka</td><td>Howell 2003 Table 2:  1/59, divergence rate 1.51 (99.5% interval 0.00–11.71) per site per Myr, computed over Howell’s 1,122-bp convention at 20-year generations.  HVR-1 only;  one event.  The exact window was not checked;  the age uses the 360-bp HVR-I window.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:parsons-1997">Parsons 1997</a></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.0306</b><small>10 / 327 · ~610 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>Substitutions between close relatives;  heteroplasmic and homoplasmic both counted, per Howell 2003</small></td><td>327</td><td>134 maternal lineages of close relatives</td><td class="age">10.2 ka</td><td class="age">14.4 ka</td><td>The load-bearing young-earth citation.  Ten differences across about 610 bp of HVR-I and HVR-II, not the whole molecule.  The ~610 bp and the 20-year generation are reverse-engineered from the published 2.5/site/Myr;  exact endpoints are unverified, so the age uses a broad HVR-I+II profile.  The abstract gives the count.  Howell’s Table 2 books this laboratory’s data as Parsons and Holland 1998 (10/306) plus the Forensic Science Service set (1/32):  11/338 together, rows below.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Parsons 1997: Forensic Science Service set</a><small>as tabulated by Howell 2003</small></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.0313</b><small>1 / 32 · 676 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>Newly arising substitutions, heteroplasmic or homoplasmic, as Howell pooled them</small></td><td>32</td><td>Not given in Howell’s table</td><td class="age">11.1 ka</td><td class="age">15.6 ka</td><td>Howell 2003 Table 2:  1/32, divergence rate 2.76 (99.5% interval 0.01–20.43) per site per Myr, computed over Howell’s 1,122-bp convention at 20-year generations.  HVR-1 and HVR-2.  Howell’s footnote:  “the analyses at the U.K. Forensic Science Service that were reported in Parsons et al. (1997).”  One event.  The age uses the 676-bp HVR-I+II window.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Soodyall 1997</a><small>as tabulated by Howell 2003</small></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0</b><small>0 / 108 · 676 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>Newly arising substitutions, heteroplasmic or homoplasmic, as Howell pooled them</small></td><td>108</td><td>Not given in Howell’s table</td><td class="age">&gt; 12.5 ka*</td><td class="age">&gt; 17.6 ka*</td><td>Howell 2003 Table 2:  0/108, divergence rate 0.00 (99.5% interval 0.00–4.79) per site per Myr, computed over Howell’s 1,122-bp convention at 20-year generations.  HVR-1 and HVR-2.  The Tristan da Cunha study, founded by a handful of women in the nineteenth century;  Gibbons 1998 reports the same zero in 108.  A zero count does not establish a zero rate.  The age uses the 676-bp HVR-I+II window.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Parsons and Holland 1998</a><small>as tabulated by Howell 2003</small></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.0327</b><small>10 / 306 · 676 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>Newly arising substitutions, heteroplasmic or homoplasmic, as Howell pooled them</small></td><td>306</td><td>Not given in Howell’s table</td><td class="age">10.6 ka</td><td class="age">14.9 ka</td><td>Howell 2003 Table 2:  10/306, divergence rate 2.91 (99.5% interval 0.99–6.44) per site per Myr, computed over Howell’s 1,122-bp convention at 20-year generations.  HVR-1 and HVR-2;  the same laboratory as Parsons 1997.  The exact window was not checked;  the age uses the 676-bp HVR-I+II window.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:cavelier-2000">Cavelier 2000: CR</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0</b><small>0 / 292 · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Homoplasmic<small>Homoplasmic substitutions only</small></td><td>292</td><td>33 maternal lineages, 194 people</td><td class="age">&gt; 37.5 ka*</td><td class="age">&gt; 64.1 ka*</td><td>No homoplasmic substitutions detected;  a zero count does not establish a zero mutation rate.  Only length heteroplasmy, at three poly-C sites (65, 309, 16189).  The zero result routinely left out of compilations on both sides.  The limit assumes independent detectable events.  Howell 2003 books the study as HVR-1 and HVR-2, 0/292.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:cavelier-2000">Cavelier 2000: coding sample</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0</b><small>0 / 292 · positions 5,550–6,050 · 500 bp</small></td><td>Homoplasmic<small>Homoplasmic substitutions only</small></td><td>Same 292</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">&gt; 1.23 ka*</td><td class="age">&gt; 6.79 ka*</td><td>5550–6050 is 501 inclusive positions;  the paper calls it 500 bp.  The zero-count limit uses that window.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:sigurdardottir-2000">Sigurðardóttir 2000</a></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.00426</b><small>3 / 705 · 673 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Homoplasmic<small>Base substitutions between relatives:  the three homoplasmic changes, per Howell 2003</small></td><td>705</td><td>26 large Icelandic pedigrees, 272 people</td><td class="age">81.1 ka</td><td class="age">114 ka</td><td>Largest pre-genomic study, about 8 times slower than Parsons.  The published HVR mask is 673 bp;  the fully sequenced amplicon is nt 16012–394 (~952 bp), and inclusive endpoint arithmetic does not reproduce 673.  Madrigal’s Table 3 pairs Howell’s count with Sigurðardóttir’s rate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:sigurdardottir-2000">Sigurðardóttir 2000: rescored</a></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.00709</b><small>5 / 705 · 673 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  rescored<small>Homoplasmic and heteroplasmic changes, Howell’s rescoring</small></td><td>Same 705</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">48.7 ka</td><td class="age">68.6 ka</td><td>Howell’s five-event rescoring of the same data, using the study’s published 673-bp HVR mask;  not an independent study.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:heyer-2001">Heyer 2001</a></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.00787</b><small>4 / 508 · 673 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Pedigree differences<small>Substitutions between relatives;  pooled with earlier studies, 18 / 1,729 = 0.0104</small></td><td>508</td><td>Deep-rooting French-Canadian pedigrees (Quebec)</td><td class="age">44 ka</td><td class="age">62 ka</td><td>HVR-I 16024–16383 and HVR-II 58–370.  Only 12 of the pooled 18 mutations sat at independent sites;  three positions mutated twice.  Fitted model:  40 fast sites (CI 27–54) at 274 per site per million generations.  The pooled count overlaps other studies.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:forster-2002">Forster 2002: low radiation</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.005</b><small>1 / 200 · 579 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected heteroplasmy<small>New heteroplasmies only;  none homoplasmic at either dose</small></td><td>200</td><td>248 Kerala families, 988 people, across 2 to 4 generations (795 transmissions in both groups)</td><td class="age">68.2 ka</td><td class="age">86.5 ka</td><td>16093–16390 and 35–315:  parts of both HVRs plus adjoining bases.  Kerala natural radioactivity, low-dose group.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:forster-2002">Forster 2002: high radiation</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.037</b><small>22 / 595 · 579 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected heteroplasmy<small>New heteroplasmies only;  none homoplasmic</small></td><td>595</td><td>Same families</td><td class="age">9.22 ka</td><td class="age">11.7 ka</td><td>A 7.4-fold rise in heteroplasmies appearing, and zero fixations.  The radiation-hit positions “mutate, on average, 12 times faster during evolution.”  The exposure comparison is not a universal clock.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Howell 2003: own pedigrees</a><small>as tabulated by Howell 2003</small></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.00541</b><small>1 / 185 · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected<small>Newly arising substitutions, heteroplasmic or homoplasmic, as Howell pooled them</small></td><td>185</td><td>Not given in Howell’s table</td><td class="age">71.3 ka</td><td class="age">122 ka</td><td>Howell 2003 Table 2:  1/185, divergence rate 0.48 (99.5% interval 0.00–3.87) per site per Myr, computed over Howell’s 1,122-bp convention at 20-year generations.  Control region nt 16024–16569 and 1–576 in five LHON families.  One event;  included in the pooled row below.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Howell 2003: pooled CR</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.0106</b><small>28 / 2,633 · pooled · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  pooled<small>Everything newly arising, heteroplasmic or homoplasmic</small></td><td>2,633</td><td>5 LHON pedigrees (185 transmissions) plus nine earlier data sets</td><td class="age">36.2 ka</td><td class="age">61.9 ka</td><td>The canonical pooled rate, published as a divergence rate of 0.95/site/Myr (twice the mutation rate;  99.5% interval 0.53–1.57) at 20-year generations, treating every study as 1,122 bp.  Multiplying it across 16,569 sites is Carter’s error.  Regions and assays differ between the pooled studies.  Table 2’s ten study rows sum to 2,643 transmissions, not the printed 2,633.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Howell 2003: coding counts</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.00866</b><small>4 / 462 · Subset</small></td><td>Pedigree events<small>Coding-region events in partially sequenced LHON pedigrees</small></td><td>462</td><td>LHON pedigrees and Cavelier’s families</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td>Mixed coverage:  earlier LHON fragments, later coding sequences, Cavelier’s 500 bp.  The 6,773 bp in Howell 1996 is not the common mask of all 462 transmissions.  The raw count has no matched age.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:howell-2003">Howell 2003: coding approximation</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.00927</b> <i>model</i><small>0.06/site/Myr divergence, halved, × 15,447 × 20 y · 15,447 bp</small></td><td>Full-region lower estimate<small>The same coding events, converted to a rate</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">112 ka</td><td class="age">427 ka</td><td>Published 0.06/site/Myr divergence rate (99.5% CI 0.008–0.20), halved, then converted using the study’s 20-year generation.  Treating partial coverage as complete coding coverage makes this conservative;  it is not a directly observed whole-coding rate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:santos-2005">Santos 2005: germinal</a></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.0187</b><small>6 / 321 · ~610 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  germinal class<small>New point substitutions, all heteroplasmic, classified somatic or germinal</small></td><td>321</td><td>Azores families;  heteroplasmy in 72% of them</td><td class="age">16.7 ka</td><td class="age">23.6 ka</td><td>Six germinal events;  0.034 = 11/321 counting the five judged somatic.  Counts from the abstract;  exact windows are unverified, so the regional age is approximate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:santos-2005">Santos 2005: corrected</a></td><td colspan="2" class="r-hvr12"><b>0.0037</b> <i>model</i><small>model, corrected to fixation · ~610 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Transmission model<small>The germinal events, corrected for loss before fixation</small></td><td>Same 321</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">84.4 ka</td><td class="age">119 ka</td><td>First pedigree study to apply the arising-to-fixing correction;  its corrected 0.2415/site/Myr lands “in the upper end” of phylogenetic values.  A model-corrected rate for the measured region, not a direct homoplasmic count;  it must not be assigned to 16,569 bases.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:madrigal-2012">Madrigal 2012: maximum</a></td><td class="r-hvr1"><b>0.0256</b><small>7 / 273 · 360 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Pedigree differences<small>Substitutions between relatives;  heteroplasmy status not stated</small></td><td>273</td><td>19 deep-rooting Costa Rican pedigrees of at least 7 generations;  53 people typed</td><td class="age">7.67 ka</td><td class="age">14.2 ka</td><td>HVR-I, 360 bp.  Generation time measured, 28.3 years over 289 meioses:  at that interval multiply these ages by 1.132.  The text reports 7 events over 299 meioses;  its printed 71.1 × 10<sup>-6</sup> per site per generation equals 7/273.  Three of the mutated sites are known hot spots.  The abstract’s 1.24 × 10<sup>-6</sup> per site per year appears nowhere in the results.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:madrigal-2012">Madrigal 2012: minimum</a></td><td class="r-hvr1"><b>0.00909</b><small>2 / 220 · 360 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Pedigree differences<small>Substitutions between relatives;  heteroplasmy status not stated</small></td><td>220</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">21.6 ka</td><td class="age">40.1 ka</td><td>Excluding a pedigree and hot-spot sites as the paper does leaves 2/220.  Different branch and hot-spot exclusions define the two counts.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:guo-2013">Guo 2013</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0</b><small>0 / 26 · 3,981× depth · 16,569 bp · &lt; 2.78 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Homoplasmic<small>Homoplasmic changes;  heteroplasmies followed down to 0.1%</small></td><td>26</td><td>18 families, 44 people;  mother–child pairs plus 9 sibling pairs</td><td class="age">&gt; 12.4 ka*</td><td class="age">&gt; 39.1 ka*</td><td>No discordant homoplasmic SNPs;  12 heteroplasmies shared by mother and child.  A zero count does not exclude rare events, and 26 transmissions give only a weak bound.  The mothers were childhood-cancer survivors with uterine irradiation, which biases the count upward.  Implies a bottleneck near 200, the high outlier.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:rebolledo-jaramillo-2014b">Rebolledo-Jaramillo 2014: arising</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.143</b> <i>model</i><small>α = μ0/(2 ln 99);  μ0 = 51/(39 × 16,569) observed · 16,569 bp · 3.45 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Arising-rate model<small>Germline point heteroplasmies at ≥ 1% in both blood and buccal tissue, fed into a transmission model</small></td><td>39</td><td>39 mother–child pairs, two tissues each</td><td class="age">9.98 ka</td><td class="age">31.5 ka</td><td>Fitted arising parameter α.  The paper estimates μ0 as 51/(39 × 16,569 bp):  the 51 are heteroplasmies observed above its 1% threshold, which include inherited variation;  they are not 51 new mutations.  39% of heteroplasmies were tissue-specific, so somatic.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:rebolledo-jaramillo-2014b">Rebolledo-Jaramillo 2014: retained</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0045</b> <i>model</i><small>2.7 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per generation × 16,569 ≈ 0.0045;  bottleneck 32.3 · 16,569 bp · 1.09 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Transmission model<small>The same heteroplasmies, divided by the measured bottleneck</small></td><td>Same 39</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">317 ka</td><td class="age">1 Ma</td><td>The paper that writes μ = α/N.  Fitted μ after frequency and bottleneck modelling (IQR 8.3 × 10<sup>-8</sup> to 8.2 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per generation), not a direct count of homoplasmic changes.  The authors call their estimate a lower bound.  The best usable clock parameter from this study.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:rebolledo-jaramillo-2014b">Rebolledo-Jaramillo 2014: D-loop retained</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.00168</b> <i>model</i><small>1.5 × 10<sup>-6</sup> per site per generation × 1,122 · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Transmission model<small>D-loop heteroplasmies, modelled separately</small></td><td>Same 39</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">229 ka</td><td class="age">391 ka</td><td>The paper’s separately modelled D-loop rate;  its interquartile range, 4.8 × 10<sup>-7</sup> to 4.7 × 10<sup>-6</sup>, spans tenfold.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:ding-2015">Ding 2015: heteroplasmy gains</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.423</b><small>141 / 333 · ≥ 4% MAF · ~180× · 16,569 bp · 1.02 × 10<sup>-6</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Detected discordance<small>Heteroplasmic discordance between mother and child, lymphocytes only</small></td><td>333</td><td>333 Sardinian parent–child trios</td><td class="age">3.37 ka</td><td class="age">10.7 ka</td><td>Child variants absent from the mother’s called class.  Discordance between tissues sampled from mother and child is not automatically a new germline mutation;  threshold, somatic origin and calling errors prevent identifying a retained rate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:ding-2015">Ding 2015: homoplasmy discordance</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.189</b><small>63 / 333 · 35 gains (0.105) + 28 losses · 16,569 bp · 4.57 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Discordant calls<small>Homoplasmic discordance between mother and child, either direction</small></td><td>Same 333</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td>The dataset behind Jeanson’s rate:  28 of his 63 discordances are variants the mother had and the child lost.  The authors read the 35 child-not-mother calls as noise, and they were never re-examined at the read level.  Gains and losses cannot both simply be counted as new inherited substitutions.  Not a validated mutation rate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:jeanson-2015">Jeanson 2015 synthesis, for comparison</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.158</b><small>63 / 398 · 16,569 bp · 3.82 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Proposed mutation clock<small>Homoplasmic discordances in Ding 2015, pooled with Guo and Rebolledo-Jaramillo (both zero), treated as homoplasmic changes</small></td><td>398</td><td>Three studies pooled</td><td class="age">9.02 ka</td><td class="age">28.5 ka</td><td>Mostly Ding’s unvalidated discordances.  Predicts 4.1 homoplasmic changes in Guo’s 26 transmissions (0 seen), 54.6 in Norfolk’s 345 (2 seen) and 242 near-homoplasmic events in Wei’s 1,526 (3 seen).  Shown to test the proposal, not as a measured rate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:wei-2019">Wei 2019: detected</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.313</b><small>477 / 1,526 · &gt; 1% VAF · ~1,900× · 16,569 bp · 7.55 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Detected de novo<small>New heteroplasmies above 1% in the child’s blood</small></td><td>1,526</td><td>1,526 mother–offspring pairs, whole blood</td><td class="age">4.57 ka</td><td class="age">14.4 ka</td><td>614 maternal heteroplasmies lost against 477 gained.  Offspring blood variants undetected in the mother;  not all germline or destined to persist.  Low-level against near-homoplasmic is a factor of 159 in one generation:  a snapshot, not the eventual fate of the 477.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:wei-2019">Wei 2019: control</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.0858</b><small>131 / 1,526 · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected de novo<small>The same events in the D-loop</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">4.49 ka</td><td class="age">7.66 ka</td><td>131 D-loop events;  the supplementary Table S2’s printed 13 is inconsistent with its rate and totals.  Regional clock illustration only.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:wei-2019">Wei 2019: coding</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.227</b><small>346 / 1,526 · 15,447 bp</small></td><td>Detected de novo<small>The same events outside the D-loop (genes, rRNA, tRNA)</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">4.6 ka</td><td class="age">17.4 ka</td><td>346 outside-D-loop events.  Same tissue and threshold limitations.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:wei-2019">Wei 2019: frequency weighted</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0194</b> <i>model</i><small>477 × 0.062 / 1,526 · 16,569 bp · 4.68 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Neutral illustration<small>The 477, each weighted by its heteroplasmic fraction</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">73.7 ka</td><td class="age">233 ka</td><td>Σ-frequency approximation.  Blood is not the germline;  selection and undetected variants remain unmodelled.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:wei-2019">Wei 2019: above 80%</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.00197</b><small>3 / 1,526 · 16,569 bp · 4.75 × 10<sup>-9</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Near-homoplasmic<small>De novo variants above 80% heteroplasmic fraction</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">726 ka</td><td class="age">2.29 Ma</td><td>Two of the three events have ascertainment concerns.  Above 80% is not complete homoplasmy, and no population-wide fixation estimate follows.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:zaidi-2019">Zaidi 2019</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.00782</b> <i>model</i><small>4.72 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per generation × 16,569 · ~11,400× · 16,569 bp · 1.89 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Transmission model<small>Germline heteroplasmies (in both blood and buccal) converted to a fixation rate through a bottleneck of 10.3</small></td><td>249</td><td>96 families, 345 people, 2 to 4 generations, at least 2 siblings per mother</td><td class="age">183 ka</td><td class="age">577 ka</td><td>Independent of Rebolledo-Jaramillo, with a bottleneck three times smaller;  per transmission it is 1.7 times Rebolledo-Jaramillo’s retained rate.  Nonsynonymous-to-synonymous occurrence 0.43.  A model-inferred germline rate, not a count of observed homoplasmic transitions.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: all</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0261</b><small>9 / 345 · Sanger · 16,569 bp · 6.30 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Detected;  mixed class<small>Homoplasmic changes plus heteroplasmies above 20% MAF</small></td><td>345</td><td>45 maternal lineages, 225 people, from the last four generations of an 11-generation island pedigree</td><td class="age">54.7 ka</td><td class="age">173 ka</td><td>Norfolk Island.  Seven heteroplasmies and two homoplasmic changes;  retaining or excluding heteroplasmy changes the estimand.  Its control-region rate, 0.469/site/Myr, matches Howell 2003’s pooled 0.475.  Population-specific pedigree.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: homoplasmic</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0058</b><small>2 / 345 · 16,569 bp · 1.40 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Homoplasmic<small>The two homoplasmic transitions only</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">246 ka</td><td class="age">778 ka</td><td>The best direct retained-change count here, but only two events, so its interval is broad.  No bottleneck model anywhere in the derivation;  its published 1.30 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year is 0.78 times the phylogenetic rate.  At the paper’s 26.9-year interval, multiply ages by 1.076.  Detection and family structure still require modelling.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: control, all</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.0145</b><small>5 / 345 · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  mixed class<small>The nine events, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">26.6 ka</td><td class="age">45.4 ka</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  The count-derived CR rate differs slightly from the printed Table 2 estimate.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: control, homoplasmic</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.0029</b><small>1 / 345 · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Homoplasmic<small>The two homoplasmic transitions, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">133 ka</td><td class="age">227 ka</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  The count-derived CR rate differs slightly from the printed Table 2 estimate.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: HVR-I, all</a></td><td class="r-hvr1"><b>0.0116</b><small>4 / 345 · 360 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  mixed class<small>The nine events, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">17 ka</td><td class="age">31.4 ka</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: HVR-I, homoplasmic</a></td><td class="r-hvr1"><b>0.0029</b><small>1 / 345 · 360 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Homoplasmic<small>The two homoplasmic transitions, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">67.9 ka</td><td class="age">126 ka</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: HVR-II, all</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>0.0029</b><small>1 / 345 · 315 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  mixed class<small>The nine events, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">51.6 ka</td><td class="age">42.8 ka</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: HVR-II, homoplasmic</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>0</b><small>0 / 345 · 315 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Homoplasmic<small>The two homoplasmic transitions, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">&gt; 17.2 ka*</td><td class="age">&gt; 14.3 ka*</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: rest of CR, all</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-rest"><b>0</b><small>0 / 345 · 447 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  mixed class<small>The nine events, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">&gt; 4.48 ka*</td><td class="age">&gt; 19.5 ka*</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: coding, all</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.0116</b><small>4 / 345 · 15,447 bp</small></td><td>Detected;  mixed class<small>The nine events, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">89.9 ka</td><td class="age">341 ka</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:connell-2022">Connell 2022: coding, homoplasmic</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.0029</b><small>1 / 345 · 15,447 bp</small></td><td>Homoplasmic<small>The two homoplasmic transitions, by position</small></td><td>Same 345</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">360 ka</td><td class="age">1.36 Ma</td><td>The same nine-event study, partitioned by the positions in its Table 1.  HVR-II ends at 371 here.  One or zero events give weak constraints.  </td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:arnadottir-2024">Árnadóttir 2024: all</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0703</b><small>8,199 / 116,663 · 16,569 bp · 1.70 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Detected;  branch inferred<small>Every mutation reaching 5% of reads, with one carrier at 10% or more</small></td><td>116,663</td><td>64,806 living Icelanders in 2,548 matrilines (deCODE genealogy)</td><td class="age">20.3 ka</td><td class="age">64.2 ka</td><td>Seventy-five times larger than anything before it.  Hypermutable positions dominate the count;  the control region runs 8.3 times the coding rate per site.  At deCODE’s 29.3-year interval, multiply ages by 1.172.  A tight bottleneck is not a universal divisor converting this count into retained substitutions.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:arnadottir-2024">Árnadóttir 2024: control</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.026</b> <i>model</i><small>2.38 × 10<sup>-5</sup> per site × 1,092 callable · 1,092 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected;  regional<small>The same events in the control region</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">14.4 ka</td><td class="age">24.6 ka</td><td>Callable CR denominator:  1,092 bp after exclusions.  Published per-site parameter;  the age uses the broader CR profile.  Threshold and hypermutable sites limit its use as a clock.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:arnadottir-2024">Árnadóttir 2024: coding</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.0443</b> <i>model</i><small>2.87 × 10<sup>-6</sup> per site × 15,443 callable · 15,443 bp</small></td><td>Detected;  regional<small>The same events in the coding region</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">23.5 ka</td><td class="age">89.2 ka</td><td>16,535 attempted sites minus 1,092 CR sites gives 15,443.  The age uses the broader coding profile;  selection and detection thresholds affect the connection to a long-run clock.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:arbeithuber-2025">Arbeithuber 2025: total</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.743</b><small>52 / 70 · ≥ 1% VAF · duplex sequencing, error &lt; 10<sup>-7</sup> · 16,569 bp · 1.79 × 10<sup>-6</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Detected in oocytes<small>De novo mutations at 1% or more of a single oocyte’s mtDNA copies, counted before any transmission</small></td><td>70</td><td>80 single oocytes from 22 women aged 20–42, with blood and saliva from each donor</td><td class="age">1.92 ka</td><td class="age">6.07 ka</td><td>The fastest human rate measured and the purest arising rate:  counted in the germ cell itself, before bottleneck, drift or transmission.  No rise with maternal age in oocytes (P = 0.688) against a rise in blood (P = 0.0027).  Mature oocytes have already experienced selection;  this is not a retained-lineage rate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:arbeithuber-2025">Arbeithuber 2025: D-loop</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.443</b> <i>model</i><small>3.95 × 10<sup>-4</sup> per site per generation × 1,122 · 1,122 bp</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>Detected in oocytes<small>The same mutations in the D-loop</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">0.869 ka</td><td class="age">1.48 ka</td><td>The authors’ own regional split.  Surviving egg variants are not equivalent to homoplasmic descendant sequences.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:arbeithuber-2025">Arbeithuber 2025: coding genes</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.3</b> <i>model</i><small>1.95 × 10<sup>-5</sup> per site per generation × 15,359 · 15,359 bp</small></td><td>Detected in oocytes<small>The same mutations in genes, rRNA and tRNA</small></td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td><td class="age">3.46 ka</td><td class="age">13.1 ka</td><td>Protein, rRNA and tRNA genes total 15,359 bp;  the 88 bp of other non-coding sequence are reported separately and are not in this denominator.  The age uses a coding-region approximation.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>

Table sources:  [^howell-1996] [^howell-2003] [^parsons-1997] [^cavelier-2000] [^sigurdardottir-2000] [^heyer-2001] [^forster-2002] [^santos-2005] [^madrigal-2012] [^guo-2013] [^rebolledo-jaramillo-2014b] [^ding-2015] [^jeanson-2015] [^wei-2019] [^zaidi-2019] [^connell-2022] [^arnadottir-2024] [^arbeithuber-2025]

<!-- BLOCK calibrations -->
<div class="clock-scroll" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Scrollable calibrated rates and ages">
<table class="ruled small wide clock-table" id="clock-calibrations">
<thead>
<tr><th rowspan="3">Study</th><th colspan="4" class="r-whole">Whole genome<small>1–16,569 · 16,569 bp</small></th><th rowspan="3">What was compared</th><th rowspan="3">Calibration assumed</th><th rowspan="3">Authors’ age of Eve</th><th rowspan="3">Sapiens age</th><th rowspan="3">All-three age baseline</th><th rowspan="3">Method and caveats</th></tr>
<tr><th colspan="3" class="r-cr">Control region<small>16,024–576 · 1,122 bp</small></th><th rowspan="2" class="r-coding">Coding region<small>577–16,023 · 15,447 bp</small></th></tr>
<tr><th class="r-hvr1">HVR-I<small>16,024–16,383 · 360 bp</small></th><th class="r-hvr2">HVR-II<small>57–372 · 316 bp</small></th><th class="r-rest">Rest<small>16,384–56, 373–576 · 446 bp</small></th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:horai-1995">Horai 1995: control</a></td><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>0.002</b> <i>model</i><small>1,143 bp · 7.00 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td>3 human and 4 ape complete genomes</td><td>Orangutan–African ape split at 13 Myr;  the human–chimp 4.87 Myr is an output</td><td>143 ka ± 18 (synonymous and D-loop);  450 ka ± 70 (nonsynonymous and RNA sites, same paper)</td><td class="age">196 ka</td><td class="age">335 ka</td><td>The 7.00 × 10<sup>-8</sup> D-loop rate is itself derived from the 3.89 × 10<sup>-8</sup> synonymous rate.  1,143-bp control-region convention;  the regional distance is approximate.  Other site classes give different dates.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:ingman-2000c">Ingman 2000</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.00656</b> <i>model</i><small>15,426 bp · 1.70 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>53 human genomes and 1 chimpanzee;  D-loop excluded</td><td>Human–chimp split at 5 Myr</td><td>171.5 ka ± 50</td><td class="age">159 ka</td><td class="age">602 ka</td><td>Uses the coding distance, not the 57.1 whole depth.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:mishmar-2003">Mishmar 2003</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.00487</b> <i>model</i><small>15,447 bp · 1.26 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>104 human genomes, coding region</td><td>Human–chimp split at 6.5 Myr</td><td>198 ka ± 19</td><td class="age">214 ka</td><td class="age">813 ka</td><td>Selection and calibration uncertainty remain relevant;  the paper argues for climatic selection while dating with a strict clock.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:kivisild-2006">Kivisild 2006: synonymous</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>Not determined</b> <i>model</i><small>Subset · 3.50 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>277 genomes, synonymous transitions only</td><td>6 Myr species split;  6.5 Myr mtDNA coalescence</td><td>160 ka (SD 22)</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td>The rate is per synonymous site.  No matching synonymous-site count and root profile was established here, so neither a per-transmission figure nor an implied age is calculated.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:endicott-2008">Endicott &amp; Ho 2008: external</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.000687</b> <i>model</i><small>7,198 bp · 3.82 × 10<sup>-9</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>177 human and 2 chimpanzee genomes;  1st and 2nd codon positions (7,198 bp) analysed alone</td><td>Human–chimp split, lognormal, 95% within 5–7.5 Myr</td><td>162 ka (122–213) from the concatenated 11,940 bp at 6.81 × 10<sup>-8</sup>;  310 ka (158–508) from these positions alone</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td>Table 3’s separately analysed PC1+2 rate (95% HPD 2.44–5.06 × 10<sup>-9</sup>).  Matching root counts for these positions were not established, so no age is calculated here.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:endicott-2008">Endicott &amp; Ho 2008: internal</a></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="r-coding"><b>0.00234</b> <i>model</i><small>7,198 bp · 1.30 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>The same 177 genomes and software, calibration swapped</td><td>Haplogroup P in Sahul at 40–55 ka, plus H1 and H3 at about 18 ka.  No ape</td><td>108 ka (82–134) from the concatenated 11,940 bp at 9.66 × 10<sup>-8</sup>;  79 ka (60–106) from these positions alone</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td class="age">Not calculated</td><td>Table 3’s separately analysed PC1+2 rate (1.01–1.58 × 10<sup>-8</sup>), 3.4 times the external one.  Not a direct pedigree measurement.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:soares-2009">Soares 2009</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0069</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 1.67 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>Tree of 2,196 complete genomes, corrected for purifying selection</td><td>Human–chimp split at 6.5 Myr plus 0.5 Myr lineage coalescence</td><td>192.4 ka (Figure 6)</td><td class="age">207 ka</td><td class="age">654 ka</td><td>The benchmark every pedigree rate is compared against;  a model output, not a count.  The table uses its summary whole-molecule rate (one mutation every 3,624 years), not the full age-dependent function.  The coding-region cross-check gives a very similar 1.708 × 10<sup>-8</sup>.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:soares-2009">Soares 2009: HVS-I</a></td><td class="r-hvr1"><b>0.0015</b> <i>model</i><small>350 bp · 1.71 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year</small></td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td class="empty">—</td><td>The same tree, HVS-I 16051–16400 (350 bp)</td><td>Scaled against the synonymous clock</td><td>Same tree</td><td class="age">128 ka</td><td class="age">236 ka</td><td>The paper’s average of 1.62 × 10<sup>-7</sup> and 1.784 × 10<sup>-7</sup>:  “1 mutation every 16,677 years” in the segment.  Its window differs from HVR-I 16024–16383;  the age uses the HVR-I profile.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:fu-2013f">Fu 2013</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0111</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 2.67 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>10 dated ancient and 311 modern genomes</td><td>Radiocarbon-dated tips;  Bayesian relaxed clock</td><td>157 ka (120–197)</td><td class="age">129 ka</td><td class="age">408 ka</td><td>Dates, site corrections and shared ancestry matter.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:brotherton-2013">Brotherton 2013</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.00994</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 2.40 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>39 Neolithic and Bronze Age genomes</td><td>Holocene-only tip calibration</td><td>—</td><td class="age">144 ka</td><td class="age">454 ka</td><td>A published genome-rate summary rather than a raw homoplasmic count.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:rieux-2014d">Rieux 2014</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.00888</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 2.14 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>26 retained ancient and 320 modern genomes;  damage screening</td><td>Tip, node and root calibration compared</td><td>143 ka (112–180)</td><td class="age">161 ka</td><td class="age">508 ka</td><td>Its fitted mtEve age and the standardized depth division here are different calculations.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:fu-2014">Fu 2014</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0105</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 2.53 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>The Ust’-Ishim femur and 311 modern genomes</td><td>A single dated tip</td><td>—</td><td class="age">136 ka</td><td class="age">430 ka</td><td>The specimen date is part of the inference.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:posth-2016">Posth 2016</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0113</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 2.74 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>66 dated ancient and 311 modern genomes</td><td>Dated tips;  Bayesian skyline, strict rate</td><td>—</td><td class="age">126 ka</td><td class="age">397 ka</td><td>Shares some comparison data with earlier work.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:cabrera-2021">Cabrera 2021: youngest bin</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0179</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 4.33 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>423 dated and 784 modern genomes</td><td>Direct mutation counts by age bin, no tree</td><td>—</td><td class="age">79.6 ka</td><td class="age">251 ka</td><td>The same data, binned by age, give a rate that falls 2.3-fold from the youngest bin to the oldest.  A bin-specific rate is not automatically a rate for the complete tree.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:cabrera-2021">Cabrera 2021: oldest bin</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.00791</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 1.91 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>423 dated and 784 modern genomes</td><td>Direct mutation counts by age bin, no tree</td><td>—</td><td class="age">180 ka</td><td class="age">570 ka</td><td>The same data, binned by age, give a rate that falls 2.3-fold from the youngest bin to the oldest.  A bin-specific rate is not automatically a rate for the complete tree.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:oversti-2022d">Översti &amp; Palo 2022: U4</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0365</b> <i>model</i><small>16,569 bp · 8.80 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>42 Holocene U4 genomes, no moderns</td><td>Root-to-tip regression on dated tips</td><td>—</td><td class="age">39.2 ka</td><td class="age">124 ka</td><td>The fastest defensible number in the mainstream literature, and the best single figure available to the young-earth side.  It is also 42 sequences from one twig of the tree with R² = 0.37, and its own x-intercept still puts that twig’s root at 12,723 years.  Not an established universal mtDNA rate.</td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="#fn:note-clock-comparison">Project: U-subclade regression</a></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>0.0107</b> <i>model</i><small>16,519 bp · 2.59 × 10<sup>-8</sup> per site per year</small></td><td>229 dated ancient genomes</td><td>Root-to-tip, per-subclade intercepts</td><td>—</td><td class="age">133 ka</td><td class="age">421 ka</td><td>An in-house descriptive calculation.  Independent-error intervals omit phylogenetic covariance and date uncertainty.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>

Table sources:  [^horai-1995] [^ingman-2000c] [^mishmar-2003] [^kivisild-2006] [^endicott-2008] [^soares-2009] [^fu-2013f] [^brotherton-2013] [^rieux-2014d] [^fu-2014] [^posth-2016] [^cabrera-2021] [^oversti-2022d] [^note-clock-comparison]

<!-- BLOCK distances -->
<div class="clock-scroll" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Scrollable distance panels">
<table class="ruled small wide clock-table" id="clock-distances">
<thead>
<tr><th rowspan="3">Panel</th><th colspan="4" class="r-whole">Whole genome<small>1–16,569 · 16,569 bp</small></th><th rowspan="3">What is measured</th><th rowspan="3">Pairs</th><th rowspan="3">Sample</th><th rowspan="3">Average pair’s ancestor at Soares’s rate</th><th rowspan="3">Notes</th></tr>
<tr><th colspan="3" class="r-cr">Control region<small>16,024–576 · 1,122 bp</small></th><th rowspan="2" class="r-coding">Coding region<small>577–16,023 · 15,447 bp</small></th></tr>
<tr><th class="r-hvr1">HVR-I<small>16,024–16,383 · 360 bp</small></th><th class="r-hvr2">HVR-II<small>57–372 · 316 bp</small></th><th class="r-rest">Rest<small>16,384–56, 373–576 · 446 bp</small></th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-region-diversity">All living humans</a><small>54 genomes</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>59.40</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 106 · control region 15.88 (max 33)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Pairwise differences within the group</td><td rowspan="2">1,431</td><td rowspan="2">rCRS plus Ingman’s 53 globally sampled genomes</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">108 ka</td><td rowspan="2">Africa-heavy by design, which is why its numbers are higher than Kim and Schuster’s.  Half the average pair is a pair-specific branch length, not the root-to-tip depth.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>8.19</b><small>max 19</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>5.76</b><small>max 16</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>1.92</b><small>max 5</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>43.52</b><small>max 87</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:behar-2012">Behar root to tip</a><small>18,843 genomes</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>57.1</b><small>mean · range 41–77</small></td><td rowspan="2">Substitutions from the reconstructed root (RSRS) to each living genome</td><td rowspan="2">—</td><td rowspan="2">18,843 complete genomes</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">207 ka</td><td rowspan="2">The sapiens-age column’s whole-molecule anchor;  median 56, SD 5.9.  A 6,000-year root needs 5.74 × 10<sup>-7</sup> per site per year:  26.8 times Rieux 2014’s rate and 34.5 times Soares 2009’s.  The second line is this project’s allocation of the 57.1 by the RSRS profile of the 54 genomes (scaled by 57.1/50.241), not a figure Behar published.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>7.87</b><small>allocated</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>5.98</b><small>allocated</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>1.56</b><small>allocated</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>41.69</b><small>allocated</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:kim-2013">Kim and Schuster</a><small>7,098 genomes</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>39.8</b><small>Π · max 123</small></td><td rowspan="2">Nucleotide diversity Π:  differences between two random genomes</td><td rowspan="2">—</td><td rowspan="2">7,098 complete genomes, 10% African</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">72.1 ka</td><td rowspan="2">A Europe- and Asia-heavy panel.  Its control-region and coding figures are Π over 1,122 and 15,447 bp;  no HVR split is published.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td colspan="3" class="r-cr"><b>9.9</b><small>max 32</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>29.9</b><small>max 98</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-region-diversity">All Neanderthals</a><small>36 records, 35 individuals</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>31.49</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 118 · control region 10.40 (max 29)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Pairwise differences within the group</td><td rowspan="2">630</td><td rowspan="2">Every near-complete Neanderthal mitogenome in GenBank at the time of the relative-rate test</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">57.1 ka</td><td rowspan="2">About half the modern human spread.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>5.84</b><small>max 20</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>3.57</b><small>max 10</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>0.98</b><small>max 6</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>21.09</b><small>max 93</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-region-diversity">All Denisovans</a><small>7 records</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>42.76</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 86 · control region 13.76 (max 25)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Pairwise differences within the group</td><td rowspan="2">21</td><td rowspan="2">Seven mitogenomes</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">77.5 ka</td><td rowspan="2">Seven records only, so the maximum means little.  Wider than the Neanderthal spread despite the smaller sample.  Denisova 19 and 21 have identical mtDNA.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>8.33</b><small>max 14</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>4.67</b><small>max 9</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>0.76</b><small>max 2</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>29.00</b><small>max 61</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-archaic-distance">Human with Neanderthal</a><small>between groups</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>199.35</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 225 · control region 35.06 (max 45)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Mean pairwise differences between the two groups</td><td rowspan="2">1,944</td><td rowspan="2">The two panels above</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">361 ka</td><td rowspan="2">Spread over 6,000 years at 25-year generations, it needs 0.415 retained changes per lineage per generation, with tips treated as contemporaneous.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>20.50</b><small>max 30</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>9.03</b><small>max 16</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>5.52</b><small>max 9</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>164.29</b><small>max 182</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-archaic-distance">Human with Denisovan</a><small>between groups</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>360.83†</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 391 · control region 44.42 (max 56)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Mean pairwise differences between the two groups</td><td rowspan="2">378</td><td rowspan="2">The two panels above</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">654 ka</td><td rowspan="2">Spread over 6,000 years at 25-year generations, it needs 0.752 retained changes per lineage per generation, with tips treated as contemporaneous.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>25.44</b><small>max 32</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>8.70</b><small>max 16</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>10.27</b><small>max 14</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>316.42†</b><small>max 341</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-archaic-distance">Neanderthal with Denisovan</a><small>between groups</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>349.79</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 378 · control region 52.62† (max 57)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Mean pairwise differences between the two groups</td><td rowspan="2">252</td><td rowspan="2">The two panels above</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">634 ka</td><td rowspan="2">Spread over 6,000 years at 25-year generations, it needs 0.729 retained changes per lineage per generation, with tips treated as contemporaneous.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>29.13†</b><small>max 34</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>9.92†</b><small>max 12</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>13.58†</b><small>max 17</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>297.17</b><small>max 322</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-archaic-distance">Human with Sima de los Huesos</a><small>between groups</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>279.33</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 296 · control region 20.15 (max 27)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Mean pairwise differences between the groups</td><td rowspan="2">54</td><td rowspan="2">54 living humans against the one Sima sequence</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">506 ka</td><td rowspan="2">One sequence only.  Not used by the all-three column, which takes the three groups with several sequences each.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>7.17</b><small>max 12</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>7.98</b><small>max 13</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>5.00</b><small>max 7</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>259.19</b><small>max 269</small></td></tr>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><a href="#fn:note-region-diversity">All three pooled</a><small>97 genomes</small></td><td colspan="4" class="r-whole"><b>154.17</b><small>mean of all pairs · max 391 · control region 27.44 (max 57)</small></td><td rowspan="2">Pairwise differences across all 97</td><td rowspan="2">4,656</td><td rowspan="2">The three panels above</td><td rowspan="2" class="age">279 ka</td><td rowspan="2">Uncorrected pairwise figures, not model split dates.  Half the pooled average underestimates the root, because many pairs share younger ancestors.</td></tr>
<tr class="split"><td class="r-hvr1"><b>15.55</b><small>max 34</small></td><td class="r-hvr2"><b>7.29</b><small>max 16</small></td><td class="r-rest"><b>4.60</b><small>max 17</small></td><td class="r-coding"><b>126.73</b><small>max 341</small></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>

Table sources:  [^note-region-diversity] [^behar-2012] [^kim-2013] [^note-archaic-distance]
